Could anyone Dem. nominee do better than Biden?

[Vice President Christian Man]

While Biden's win was impressive, was there anyone who could've done better when it came to the E.C.

[SnowLabrador]

Bernie Sanders. People actually supported him because they liked him, not just because he wasn't Trump.

[Pericles]

Nobody who ran. In theory, a young fresh candidate with serious charisma would have been better, but none of the candidates who ran had it-it's not easy to be an Obama or a Bill Clinton.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Sherrod Brown or John Tester. Maybe Tim Ryan.

[Bootes Void]

Probably Beto if he ran like himself in 2018. Cory Booker would do as well and maybe some weird figure like Jim Webb

Bloomberg or Warren. If they ran, Hillary or Kerry. Biden was an historically weak nominee and it took an act of god for him to win by one of the smallest margins (0.63%) ever.

He won by 4.5% not 0.63%. I don't know where you got that?

[Pericles]

Bloomberg or Warren. If they ran, Hillary or Kerry. Biden was an historically weak nominee and it took an act of god for him to win by one of the smallest margins (0.63%) ever.

Biden was more liked than disliked and was 11 points more popular than Hillary.

[TDAS04]

Bloomberg or Warren. If they ran, Hillary or Kerry. Biden was an historically weak nominee and it took an act of god for him to win by one of the smallest margins (0.63%) ever.

Warren would have been very weak in the general election.

Anyway, Biden was about as strong as we’d get in 2020.

[Mr. Smith]

Yes.

Literally anyone else.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bloomberg or Warren. If they ran, Hillary or Kerry. Biden was an historically weak nominee and it took an act of god for him to win by one of the smallest margins (0.63%) ever.

What do you mean by “Act of God”?

[brucejoel99]

Bernie Sanders. People actually supported him because they liked him, not just because he wasn't Trump.

Just because you have the ability to keep repeating this take over & over again ad-nauseam doesn't make it true, as I told you when you last did so by offering up said take as its very own thread in the form of an ERM-like "question" that you obviously weren't seeking actual legitimate answers to so much as you evidently must've merely been seeking mindless re-affirmations of the perspective which you've already clearly firmly committed yourself to believing no matter any information that's presented to the contrary (so, like basically every other nonsensical take that you offer on this site too):

I believe Bernie Sanders would have done better in the general election than Joe Biden, for two main reasons:

- He was winning Latinos in the primary easily, and Biden absolutely collapsed with them in the general election.

- He would not have stopped in-person canvassing, which as it turns out isn't THAT dangerous COVID-wise. That was the Democratic Party's unilateral surrender, and it nearly cost them the 2020 election, and several winnable House races no doubt.

I just wonder where this conventional wisdom comes from.

Because it's incredibly likely that Bernie would've done worse than Biden.

Let's take a look back at the primary. In it, Bernie ultimately proved to be a poor campaigner & especially a poor political strategist: as both Lucky & Battle for the Soul made clear, his team's strategy to win the nomination was to just get a plurality of the vote in the primaries thanks to a splintered field & then demand the nomination at a contested convention. Anybody with just a general understanding of Democratic politics could've told them that the aforementioned strategy was garbage & bound to completely collapse as soon as the most moderate candidates realized that the only candidates left with a chance at the nomination were Bernie & "Not Bernie" - as it turned out, Biden, in this case - & so just dropped out as a result. Hell, those of us right here on this forum could've told them that: say what can be said about moderate Democrats, but they're not as stupid as the Never-Trump Republicans were back in the 2016 primary, & tend to value safety & going with the option that's perceived as most electable above all else. Candidates like Buttigieg, Klobuchar, & Bloomberg could clearly see where the wind was blowing in terms of their candidacies, & they weren't about to risk damaging their reputations in Democratic politics by potentially depriving the party of its most "electable" candidate just for the pleasure of getting to stroke their egos for a few more months like Cruz, Kasich, & Rubio were all willing to do in the Republican primary 4 years prior. Basically, where the likes of Cruz, Kasich, & Rubio were all in it for themselves insofar as massaging their egos in a fruitless quest for the nomination was concerned, the moderate Democrats of 2020 - although also in it for themselves - were such in the sense of "doing what's best for the party keeps their reputations therein intact."

Moreover, Bernie's performance in the primaries proved that he'd been unable to expand his 2016 base of support in any significant fashion, which was unfortunate for him because his base of support was largely predicated upon a group of voters - young voters - that already tend to turn-out in especially low numbers, which remained the case even when none other than he himself was the name that was being printed on their ballots. What's more, outright giving up on reaching out to Black voters - as Lucky & Battle for the Soul both made clear - certainly didn't do him any favors on this front either.

Finally, in regards to the general election, Republican messaging in-real-life was literally all about Bernie & his policies. Trump literally ignored Biden & what his policies actually are in the process of trying with all of his muster to paint the Democrats as "Bernie's party of radical liberal progressive socialist Marxists." Just as Bernie had put all of his primary eggs into the basket of "fighting for the nomination at a contested convention after getting a plurality of the vote in the primaries thanks to a splintered field that hopefully isn't ruined by any of the moderates dropping out in the meantime," Republicans had clearly put all of their general eggs into the assumption that Bernie would be the Democratic nominee whom they'd be facing off against, a strategy which the nomination of Biden - for whom they had no credibility to attack as a radical leftist - served to completely upend. And yet, even with Biden having been the nominee, their strategy still turned out to be surprisingly successful insofar as "convincing a significant sum of people that Biden was a radical leftist whom would impose the threat of socialist Marxism upon them just like Bernie would" was concerned, as was made evident by the fact that shifts totaling just 21,461 votes in GA, WI, & AZ would've seen Trump re-taking the White House in spite of literally everything that was going on at the time. Suffice it to say that this strategy would've undeniably been a much easier undertaking - & a more successful one too - for the Republicans had Bernie actually been the nominee, to an extent that even Bernie's Latino base & canvassing in-person may not have been enough to counteract all of that. It was hard to credibly attack Biden as a radical leftist, & yet it damn near worked. If Bernie had actually been the nominee, that attack would - rightly or wrongly - have carried a lot more credibility, & would've undoubtedly been more successful as a result: socialist Bernie surely wasn't winning FL & fracking-ban Bernie surely wasn't winning PA, not to mention that perpetually-bad-with-Black-voters Bernie surely wasn't gonna get the necessary margins among them to win GA by just 11K votes.

And jumping off of that lattermost point concerning Bernie's relationship with Black voters, say goodbye to Senator Ossoff: Perdue was just 27K votes away from preventing a run-off, & he probably manages to end up doing so in this scenario. Even if Bernie could somehow still manage to win 270 EVs in this scenario, he likely doesn't have a Senate to work with, & even if Bernie still won 270 EVs *&* Perdue still went to a run-off in this scenario, who knows if Trump's overturn-the-election tantrum is even still enough to result in both of GA's Senate seats going to the Democrats at the end of the day?

Suffice it to say that it's not at all unreasonable for many people to think that Bernie would've done worse than Biden.

[here2view]

No. Even if you give Sanders all of the Biden OTL states, I don't see how he wins Florida, North Carolina, or Texas. Sanders' superior hispanic outreach wouldn't have made up the 5.5% difference in Texas.

Ohio and Iowa were too far gone.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Mike Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, and Tulsi “QAnon” Gabbard probably could have defeated Donald Trump in 2020, though their winning maps would have been much different that Joe Biden’s.

[dw93]

Sherrod Brown is the only person I can think of that could've done better than Biden. Of those that actually ran, maybe Steve Bullock could've if he had gotten in the race ahead of Biden and hit the ground running ahead of the primaries, but that's pushing it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Sanders, Yang, Tulsi

[DS0816]

While Biden's win was impressive, …

It wasn’t impressive.

Typically, an opposition-party challenger who unseats and incumbent U.S. President experiences a minimum of a 10-point national shift with percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. Had 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have reached +2. (I estimate +2.15 to +2.64.) Figure…one net gain in flipped states with each percentage point nationally shifted to that Republican or Democratic pickup winner. (Trump, following 2012’s Mitt Romney, flipped six states—including four of the nation’s Top10 populous states—and a congressional district which is nearly half its statewide vote.) 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, following an adjusted 2016 U.S. Popular Vote margin of –2, should have reached approximately +8 percentage points. (A national margin of +8 for a winning Democrat would be 29 or 30 carried states.)

Joe Biden did not perform impressively. He got by. (And with a pandemic having struck on the watch of incumbent Trump.)

[Pres Mike]

Had Beto not been an idiot, I could see him being Obama 2.0

1. Joining the race at his peak popularity
2. Running from the left
3. Not doing stupid things like that magazine interview, drive in the desert and live streaming his dentist appointment
4. Not saying things like “We are going to take your guns”

[Hope For A New Era]

I sometimes wonder what could have been if Jason Kander had won in 2016.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Had Beto not been an idiot, I could see him being Obama 2.0

1. Joining the race at his peak popularity
2. Running from the left
3. Not doing stupid things like that magazine interview, drive in the desert and live streaming his dentist appointment
4. Not saying things like “We are going to take your guns”

Obama wasn’t doing that great in the general election until Lehman despite the fact that Bush’s approvals were in the 20s , Iraq was super unpopular and the economy had already started to decline .I think Obama still wins but with this map

[Pericles]

While Biden's win was impressive, …

It wasn’t impressive.

Typically, an opposition-party challenger who unseats and incumbent U.S. President experiences a minimum of a 10-point national shift with percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. Had 2016 Republican pickup winner Donald Trump won the U.S. Popular Vote, his margin would have reached +2. (I estimate +2.15 to +2.64.) Figure…one net gain in flipped states with each percentage point nationally shifted to that Republican or Democratic pickup winner. (Trump, following 2012’s Mitt Romney, flipped six states—including four of the nation’s Top10 populous states—and a congressional district which is nearly half its statewide vote.) 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, following an adjusted 2016 U.S. Popular Vote margin of –2, should have reached approximately +8 percentage points. (A national margin of +8 for a winning Democrat would be 29 or 30 carried states.)

Joe Biden did not perform impressively. He got by. (And with a pandemic having struck on the watch of incumbent Trump.)

Most losing incumbents don't have an approval rating around 45%. It was just a few points lower than Obama and W Bush. Carter and HW Bush, who did lose in landslides, had approval ratings in the mid to low 30s. The closest comparison is Gerald Ford, who was in the same range as Trump and barely lost. The reality is that Biden couldn't have done much better because there was a hard floor of people who positively approved of Trump, for some mystifying reason.

[Pres Mike]

I sometimes wonder what could have been if Jason Kander had won in 2016.

If Jason Kander won in 2016, everyone in the party would be begging him to stay in the senate. Why throw away a senate seat and let a republican governor pick his replacment

This can only happen if Kander wins in 2016 and Democrats do even better in 2018 and win the senate. If we assume Kander wins and Doug Jones wins in Alabama in 2017, this means 50-50 senate. Democrats would need to win 1-2 seats in the midterms.

This means picking up seats like NV and AZ. They are going to lose Indiana and North Dakota. I suppose Bill Nelson can win Florida since it was 0.12% margin. And lets say Clair wins Missouri from Kander supportors.

Democrats now have a 52 seat majority. Kander might run since he won't cost Democrats the majority

[Hope For A New Era]

I sometimes wonder what could have been if Jason Kander had won in 2016.

If Jason Kander won in 2016, everyone in the party would be begging him to stay in the senate. Why throw away a senate seat and let a republican governor pick his replacment

This can only happen if Kander wins in 2016 and Democrats do even better in 2018 and win the senate. If we assume Kander wins and Doug Jones wins in Alabama in 2017, this means 50-50 senate. Democrats would need to win 1-2 seats in the midterms.

This means picking up seats like NV and AZ. They are going to lose Indiana and North Dakota. I suppose Bill Nelson can win Florida since it was 0.12% margin. And lets say Clair wins Missouri from Kander supportors.

Democrats now have a 52 seat majority. Kander might run since he won't cost Democrats the majority

Chris Koster could have picked his replacement. If you're butterflyeffecting a Kander victory, you might as well butterfly Koster too, he only ran two points behind.

[Pres Mike]

I sometimes wonder what could have been if Jason Kander had won in 2016.

If Jason Kander won in 2016, everyone in the party would be begging him to stay in the senate. Why throw away a senate seat and let a republican governor pick his replacment

This can only happen if Kander wins in 2016 and Democrats do even better in 2018 and win the senate. If we assume Kander wins and Doug Jones wins in Alabama in 2017, this means 50-50 senate. Democrats would need to win 1-2 seats in the midterms.

This means picking up seats like NV and AZ. They are going to lose Indiana and North Dakota. I suppose Bill Nelson can win Florida since it was 0.12% margin. And lets say Clair wins Missouri from Kander supportors.

Democrats now have a 52 seat majority. Kander might run since he won't cost Democrats the majority

Chris Koster could have picked his replacement. If you're butterflyeffecting a Kander victory, you might as well butterfly Koster too, he only ran two points behind.

Republicans have a 70% majority in both houses of the Missouri State Legistaure. They could pass a law saying that the governor has to pick someone from the same party. Even if Koster wins in 2016 his veto would just get an overide.

In 2004, the MA state assembly changed the law and overided Governor Romney veto to protect Kerry senate seat had he won 

[Progressive Pessimist]

This thread again too? No. In spite of a few missteps in hindsight, Biden was likely the best person who could have been nominated.

I sometimes wonder what could have been if Jason Kander had won in 2016.

Or even if he ran for Mayor of Kansas City in 2018. He could have been an even better Buttigieg!

[Mister Mets]

Biden seemed to hit the sweet spot of appealing to rust belt centrists, and African-American voters.

Klobuchar and Buttigieg might've done a little better with the center, but would likely have worse turn out with African-American voters, while Booker and Harris wouldn't do as well with Wisconsin moderates.

[Pres Mike]

Biden seemed to hit the sweet spot of appealing to rust belt centrists, and African-American voters.

Klobuchar and Buttigieg might've done a little better with the center, but would likely have worse turn out with African-American voters, while Booker and Harris wouldn't do as well with Wisconsin moderates.

This

Biden is the only one who could get everyone from Bernie Sanders to John Kasich. Biden is the only one who could get 2016 Jill Stein voters and just enough 2012 Romney voters.