NJ - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Club for Growth (R): Murphy +2
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  NJ - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Club for Growth (R): Murphy +2
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Author Topic: NJ - Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Club for Growth (R): Murphy +2  (Read 925 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 02, 2021, 11:32:50 AM »

August 24-29, 600 LV, MoE: 4%

General election
Phil Murphy (D-inc) 43%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 41%
Gregg Mele (L) 2%
Madelyn Hoffman (G) 1%

Head-to-head
Phil Murphy (D-inc) 46%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 45%

Favorabilities
Murphy - 48/47
Ciattarelli - 38/21

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/8-21-new-jersey-gov-race-memo-final.pdf

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2021, 11:34:43 AM »

I'm not sure what the most ridiculous part of this is, but it probably has to be Ciatiarelli winning Indies by 20%.
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THG
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2021, 11:48:37 AM »
« Edited: September 02, 2021, 11:52:15 AM by Freethinker Tom Rice »

I would like to preface my statement by stating that I actually know and respect some people who work for Club For Growth personally, and I’ve interned for similar organizations in the past (and will continue to do so in the future). I still greatly respect that organization even after this poll came out.

However, I still take this particular poll about as seriously as any generic Dem hack pollster’s drivel. Just no. It is simply utterly absurd in so many ways.

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kwabbit
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2021, 12:38:23 PM »

Not like this is accurate, but Murphy only winning by like 5-10 would be unsurprising. NJ does not like to vote for the in-party in gubernatorial elections. Murphy has been quite divisive as well, given his strict COVID policies. I do think that he has avoided reinstituting a mask mandate to avoid criticism in the run-up to his reelection.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2021, 06:38:03 PM »

Not like this is accurate, but Murphy only winning by like 5-10 would be unsurprising. NJ does not like to vote for the in-party in gubernatorial elections. Murphy has been quite divisive as well, given his strict COVID policies. I do think that he has avoided reinstituting a mask mandate to avoid criticism in the run-up to his reelection.

That only happens if turnout for the election is even lower than last time. And if what you're saying is true, how come Ciatarelli isn't seizing upon COVID restrictions more? All I've seen out of him are ads about Murphy talking about how New Jersey isn't the state for you if you care about the tax rate. That's it. Taxes are the bread-and-butter issue for New Jersey Republicans, but there has to be more than that if he actually thinks he can win, right?

Anyway, this poll should drowned in the overflowed Passaic river.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2021, 08:30:07 PM »

Yea, this is not true.

Murphy will win by 5-15 points.

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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2021, 11:20:20 PM »

The nonsense you are forced to put up with in September of an election year. Roll Eyes
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UncleSam
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2021, 11:28:06 PM »

I mean, I buy that the R will get at least 41% of the vote and maybe even 45% 🤷‍♂️
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2021, 05:09:58 AM »

Not like this is accurate, but Murphy only winning by like 5-10 would be unsurprising. NJ does not like to vote for the in-party in gubernatorial elections. Murphy has been quite divisive as well, given his strict COVID policies. I do think that he has avoided reinstituting a mask mandate to avoid criticism in the run-up to his reelection.

also, NJ doesn't seem that upset at the COVID policies. Murphy has enjoyed a positive approval rating since last year.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2021, 10:30:49 AM »

Not like this is accurate, but Murphy only winning by like 5-10 would be unsurprising. NJ does not like to vote for the in-party in gubernatorial elections. Murphy has been quite divisive as well, given his strict COVID policies. I do think that he has avoided reinstituting a mask mandate to avoid criticism in the run-up to his reelection.

also, NJ doesn't seem that upset at the COVID policies. Murphy has enjoyed a positive approval rating since last year.

NJ's policies are quite lax currently. A year ago they were maybe the strictest in the nation. Polling around COVID policies seems unreliable to me, in polls people indicate a willingness and approval of stricter policies than in practice.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2021, 10:39:31 AM »

These races are following Biden Approvals, but it's part of blue wall, D's will win them
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2021, 10:33:52 AM »

Color me very skeptical, but at least this will be something for Republicans to fundraise off. As I've said before, one 20-point poll after Labor Day would effectively end the race and risk a lot of legislative seats. Still expect the final margin to be Murphy by double digits.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2021, 10:36:54 AM »

Rs really think D's are gonna lose NJ and we have VBM, VA is clearly the most Vulnerable one, since we have held the Gov race for A Decade not NJ, but Murphy won't win by 60, 55 more likely
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2021, 02:56:24 PM »

Cute attempt. Murphy wins at least with 55%
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Stuart98
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2021, 04:06:55 PM »

I can believe Ciattarelli will get 41% in November, yes.
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