CA-PPIC: NO +19

[Person Man]

I think after the clusterfucc in Texas, Republicans are done for the remainder of the year (VA, NJ, and CA).

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think after the clusterfucc in Texas, Republicans are done for the remainder of the year (VA, NJ, and CA).

These three races were never really in contention though. That's not saying much,

Let's savor those victories when we get them though. It is perpetually downhill from there.

[Alben Barkley]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cali SOS says it's 51/46 Newsome it's not 60/40

[Biden his time]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

[THG]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

[Kamala's side hoe]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

Could it be possible that pro-Newsom Latinos are disproportionately concentrated outside of LA County (like areas that aren’t Safe D?), and/or that White/multiracial voters in LA County are unusually anti-Newsom? I definitely buy that there are some Biden-D voters who hate Newsom enough to vote to recall him. I just don’t follow CA politics closely enough to have any idea of who they might be.

[THG]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

Could it be possible that pro-Newsom Latinos are disproportionately concentrated outside of LA County (like areas that aren’t Safe D?), and/or that White/multiracial voters in LA County are unusually anti-Newsom? I definitely buy that there are some Biden-D voters who hate Newsom enough to vote to recall him. I just don’t follow CA politics closely enough to have any idea of who they might be.

Latinos in LA are much more liberal and thus probably more pro-Newsom than the ones in say, the Central Valley, San Bernardino, San Diego, or the Inland Empire. Also, White/etc voters in LA are very liberal as well.

So no, this literally does not add up whatsoever. PPIC is also a terrible pollster with laughable crosstabs and should be taken with a grain of salt here.

[Kamala's side hoe]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

Could it be possible that pro-Newsom Latinos are disproportionately concentrated outside of LA County (like areas that aren’t Safe D?), and/or that White/multiracial voters in LA County are unusually anti-Newsom? I definitely buy that there are some Biden-D voters who hate Newsom enough to vote to recall him. I just don’t follow CA politics closely enough to have any idea of who they might be.

Latinos in LA are much more liberal and thus probably more pro-Newsom than the ones in say, the Central Valley, San Bernardino, San Diego, or the Inland Empire. Also, White/etc voters in LA are very liberal as well.

Liberal/progressive Democrat =/= pro-Newsom. I've seen crosstabs suggesting that "Very Liberal" voters were more likely to vote Yes than "Liberal" voters.

I voted YES on the recall and I'm a registered democrat in the Bay Area, so not someone you would expect to be voting yes. If I knew that this was a race between Newsom and Elder, I would have voted no. However, I have seen a lot of support for the recall even though I live in the most liberal part of CA.  

[THG]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

Could it be possible that pro-Newsom Latinos are disproportionately concentrated outside of LA County (like areas that aren’t Safe D?), and/or that White/multiracial voters in LA County are unusually anti-Newsom? I definitely buy that there are some Biden-D voters who hate Newsom enough to vote to recall him. I just don’t follow CA politics closely enough to have any idea of who they might be.

Latinos in LA are much more liberal and thus probably more pro-Newsom than the ones in say, the Central Valley, San Bernardino, San Diego, or the Inland Empire. Also, White/etc voters in LA are very liberal as well.

Liberal/progressive Democrat =/= pro-Newsom. I've seen crosstabs suggesting that "Very Liberal" voters were more likely to vote Yes than "Liberal" voters.

I voted YES on the recall and I'm a registered democrat in the Bay Area, so not someone you would expect to be voting yes. If I knew that this was a race between Newsom and Elder, I would have voted no. However, I have seen a lot of support for the recall even though I live in the most liberal part of CA.  

I get what you mean but conservatives leaning minorities in the Central Valley or SoCal (outside of LA) are still more likely to vote “YES” than the ones in the Bay or LA, for instance.

[Biden his time]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

I initially took this at face value, but it turns out that isn't the case. Biden won  75% of Latinos against Trump's 23% in the state of California.

It's important to remember that Californian Latinos are more liberal than their Texan, Arizonan, and Floridian counterparts.


On the flipside, Californian Whites are voting for the recall at approximately the same rate that they voted for Biden. I think this does exacerbate the idea that Newsom will overperform in the San Francisco Bay Area.

[THG]

This poll's crosstabs are insane

Los Angeles County only opposing the recall by 20%! (after having voted for Biden by some 43%!)

Indicative of a major weakness of Newsom (probably not one that will be decisive but an interesting one nonetheless)

The crosstabs in this poll are Florida hack polls levels of awful.

PPIC shows Latinos supporting Newsom 66-27 (that’s higher than Biden’s margins even) but also recall getting within 25 in LA County at the same time?

I initially took this at face value, but it turns out that isn't the case. Biden won  75% of Latinos against Trump's 23% in the state of California.

It's important to remember that Californian Latinos are more liberal than their Texan, Arizonan, and Floridian counterparts.


On the flipside, Californian Whites are voting for the recall at approximately the same rate that they voted for Biden. I think this does exacerbate the idea that Newsom will overperform in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Trump probably got closer to the high 20’s if not 30% with Hispanics in CA in 2020, based on precinct data alone. And yes, I am aware of the fact that they’re more liberal than Hispanics in CA on average.

[Person Man]

I think after the clusterfucc in Texas, Republicans are done for the remainder of the year (VA, NJ, and CA).

These three races were never really in contention though. That's not saying much,

Let's savor those victories when we get them though. It is perpetually downhill from there.

Probably. The thing is with so much now at stake, it’s go big or go home! 2023-2025 might be the Last Stand for the Democratic Party. Republicans, don’t say I didn’t warn you.