CA-PPIC: NO +19

[Lief 🗽]

I tried to warn you.
https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1433280119141928961?s=21

[Holmes]

A result like this would break a few blue avatars’ hearts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This ain't gonna be close, folks.

[S019]

Bit too D friendly, I expect No+10-12, but this outcome is likelier than Newsom losing at this point, imo

[Minnesota Mike]

Bit too D friendly, I expect No+10-12, but this outcome is likelier than Newsom losing at this point, imo

I can't believe anybody ever thought this would close. The early vote is running ahead of the 2020 pace and Dems are up 30% in returned ballots. 19 points is probably right in the area the race ends up and if anything it is probably a little low.

[MT Treasurer]

Never bought that this was anything better than Likely D for the GOP even when polling was showing a Tossup, but also feel bad about ever entertaining the notion that this might be more competitive than VA or NJ, especially since I’m usually fairly adamant about partisanship (and trends) winning out.

This was fun while it lasted. I will say that Elder's campaign and the CA Republicans' strategy (or lack thereof) to win this race.... really aren’t helping.

[Matty]

Never bought that this was anything better than Likely D for the GOP even when polling was showing a Tossup, but also feel bad about ever entertaining the notion that this might be more competitive than VA or NJ, especially since I’m usually fairly adamant about partisanship (and trends) winning out.

This was fun while it lasted. I will say that Elder's campaign and the CA Republicans' strategy (or lack thereof) to win this race.... really aren’t helping.

The mailing of ballots to every voter basically ensures that election results will never come down to turnout.

Let's be real here

If everybody in alabama in 2017 was mailed a ballot, doug jones gets his ass kicked

If everybody in all those 2017 and early 2018 house special elections got mailed a ballot, the democratic overperformance would have been cut by probably 80%+.

The mailing of ballots to every household is a total gamechanger. Luckily it will stop once the pandemic ends in most states.

[MT Treasurer]

Never bought that this was anything better than Likely D for the GOP even when polling was showing a Tossup, but also feel bad about ever entertaining the notion that this might be more competitive than VA or NJ, especially since I’m usually fairly adamant about partisanship (and trends) winning out.

This was fun while it lasted. I will say that Elder's campaign and the CA Republicans' strategy (or lack thereof) to win this race.... really aren’t helping.

The mailing of ballots to every voter basically ensures that election results will never come down to turnout.

Let's be real here

If everybody in alabama in 2017 was mailed a ballot, doug jones gets his ass kicked

If everybody in all those 2017 and early 2018 house special elections got mailed a ballot, the democratic overperformance would have been cut by probably 80%+.

The mailing of ballots to every household is a total gamechanger. Luckily it will stop once the pandemic ends in most states.

Don’t necessarily disagree (especially with your point about AL/several 2018 races), but it’s probably not the whole story. NV and MT used a similar system in 2020 and Trump/Republicans still overperformed there with considerably higher turnout than is usually the case.

If the margin of defeat is in the ballpark of 20 points, it will have more to do with the recall not being nearly as successful among 'low-propensity' voters (which includes a sizable cohort of Hispanics) as it could have been.

In general, I feel like it’s safer to say that the higher the turnout, the more likely even a non-federal race is to reflect the state's overall partisanship/PVI. This also adds some nuance to the 'low-propensity Trump voters' takes after 2020. I don’t think high turnout per se helps Democrats in states/races that are actually competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for Woodbury prediction on Elder winning

[Chips]

This race has been a rollercoaster. We went from Newsom being solidly favored, to there being a significant chance of him being recalled and now we're back to Newsom being favored. Likely Keep and I don't think I'll need to change my rating again unless we have another poll showing the Recall side significantly ahead again.

[wbrocks67]

Never bought that this was anything better than Likely D for the GOP even when polling was showing a Tossup, but also feel bad about ever entertaining the notion that this might be more competitive than VA or NJ, especially since I’m usually fairly adamant about partisanship (and trends) winning out.

This was fun while it lasted. I will say that Elder's campaign and the CA Republicans' strategy (or lack thereof) to win this race.... really aren’t helping.

Yeah, this was honestly the GOPs "best chance" of winning the governorship (in a relative sense), and if the best they can do is Elder's hard-right joke of a campaign then... well...

[Skill and Chance]

Bit too D friendly, I expect No+10-12, but this outcome is likelier than Newsom losing at this point, imo

It looks very likely that No/Newsom is going to win at this point.  There could be a big difference between a victory that looks like the 2004 presidential race vs. one that looks like 2008-present in terms of what it means for the 2022 midterm.   

[Sir Mohamed]

This is possibly Newsom's ceiling. I was never buying a closeness of this race and polling may be KY at the national level in reverse: Dems start polling decent, just behind few points or even a tie, but as the election nears, polls start to look more and more grim. The GOP is having the same experience now.

I stick with my preduction that the recall will fail by 13 to 17 pts. I'm still saying 57-43% keep.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

As soon as this de facto became Newsom vs. Elder, it was over.

[PSOL]

As soon as this de facto became Newsom vs. Elder, it was over.

Nope, it never even was possible for Newsom to lose. Most people saw this as an annoying attempt of a dying party to stay in the limelight.

[THG]

The race is still likely Keep.

I still highly doubt that he gets recalled but the margin is still within ten points or so. Unless we get further developments in which case I shall change my prediction once again.

[Pollster]

In general, I feel like it’s safer to say that the higher the turnout, the more likely even a non-federal race is to reflect the state's overall partisanship/PVI

This is almost always true.

I don’t think high turnout per se helps Democrats in states/races that are actually competitive.

This is a bit more nuanced. Average Republican turnout in contemporary Presidential elections is in the high 80's, Democrats in the mid to high 70's (high 60's commonly in racially diverse states). Midterms see lower turnout figures but fairly similar ratios (with the party holding the white house losing a few percentage points disproportionately, usually 3-5%). The massive turnout of 2020 saw average Republican turnout in the low 90's and Democratic turnout in the low to mid 80's (with racially diverse states keeping up).

2020 was, without question, a rising tide that lifted every boat. But by sheer metrics/numbers game, it's certainly fair to say that higher turnout is more likely to favor Democrats than not.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here - it's just one crosstab, but this also shows Latinos voting NO 66-27. So much for that narrative if that bears out.

[THG]

Also of note here - it's just one crosstab, but this also shows Latinos voting NO 66-27. So much for that narrative if that bears out.

It also shows people under 35 voting +13 yes (lol) and the recall getting 37% of the vote in the LA area (which is not counting Orange County, which is in a separate geographical category along with San Diego in this poll.)

I don’t need to be a polling expert to tell you that there is no way Hispanics vote 66-27 in favor of NO and yet the recall somehow crosses 35+% in LA.

[THG]

https://www.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1433425289141313553
LA being around the statewide level makes no sense at all, but if the recall legitimately crosses 35-40% in LA County as this pollster claims, Newsom is definitely collapsing hard with Hispanics. Which makes the 66-27 margin this pollster claims even more non-sensical.

Also I’m not even taking into account the rest of the geographical areas, which make even less sense. The Inland Empire, OC/SD, and Central Valley margins defy all logic especially when especially compared to how LA votes.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here - it's just one crosstab, but this also shows Latinos voting NO 66-27. So much for that narrative if that bears out.

It also shows people under 35 voting +13 yes (lol) and the recall getting 37% of the vote in the LA area (which is not counting Orange County, which is in a separate geographical category along with San Diego in this poll.)

I don’t need to be a polling expert to tell you that there is no way Hispanics vote 66-27 in favor of NO and yet the recall somehow crosses 35+% in LA.

I think you're thinking of the SurveyUSA poll

[THG]

Also of note here - it's just one crosstab, but this also shows Latinos voting NO 66-27. So much for that narrative if that bears out.

It also shows people under 35 voting +13 yes (lol) and the recall getting 37% of the vote in the LA area (which is not counting Orange County, which is in a separate geographical category along with San Diego in this poll.)

I don’t need to be a polling expert to tell you that there is no way Hispanics vote 66-27 in favor of NO and yet the recall somehow crosses 35+% in LA.

I think you're thinking of the SurveyUSA poll

I linked to the PPIC poll, not Survey USA. I’m not sure which one shows the 66-27 statistic however.

[wbrocks67]

Also of note here - it's just one crosstab, but this also shows Latinos voting NO 66-27. So much for that narrative if that bears out.

It also shows people under 35 voting +13 yes (lol) and the recall getting 37% of the vote in the LA area (which is not counting Orange County, which is in a separate geographical category along with San Diego in this poll.)

I don’t need to be a polling expert to tell you that there is no way Hispanics vote 66-27 in favor of NO and yet the recall somehow crosses 35+% in LA.

I think you're thinking of the SurveyUSA poll

I linked to the PPIC poll, not Survey USA. I’m not sure which one shows the 66-27 statistic however.

PPIC does. The one with Adults 18-34 being +13 YES is the SurveyUSA poll.

[THG]

Also of note here - it's just one crosstab, but this also shows Latinos voting NO 66-27. So much for that narrative if that bears out.

It also shows people under 35 voting +13 yes (lol) and the recall getting 37% of the vote in the LA area (which is not counting Orange County, which is in a separate geographical category along with San Diego in this poll.)

I don’t need to be a polling expert to tell you that there is no way Hispanics vote 66-27 in favor of NO and yet the recall somehow crosses 35+% in LA.

I think you're thinking of the SurveyUSA poll

I linked to the PPIC poll, not Survey USA. I’m not sure which one shows the 66-27 statistic however.

PPIC does. The one with Adults 18-34 being +13 YES is the SurveyUSA poll.

My bad.

The other point still stands however. If the recall gets 37% in the LA Area as it claims (and this pollster doesn’t count Orange County as part of the LA area) the 66-27 number with Latinos doesn’t add up. Trump got higher than that in 2020 in California among that exact demographic, and still couldn’t even get 30% in LA County.

[President Johnson]

As soon as this de facto became Newsom vs. Elder, it was over.

Nope, it never even was possible for Newsom to lose. Most people saw this as an annoying attempt of a dying party to stay in the limelight.

Exactly this.

I hope as a consequence the recall requirements are changed or the recall entirely abolished.