Why don’t WWC voters in Michigan vote as Republican as WWC voters in Ohio?

[Cyrusman]

This is specifically for non college graduate white working class voters. I’ve noticed the ones in Michigan bore much less GOP than the ones in neighboring Ohio. If non college graduate WWC Michigan voters voted for the GOP at the same rate as the ones in Ohio do then the GOP would fare much better in MI.

What is the biggest difference?

[Non Swing Voter]

Someone mentioned this in another thread and I think it's accurate.  They are ancestrally more connected to New Englanders.  White people from Michigan also seems exceedingly moderate and middle of the road so it seems natural they'd be less overwhelmingly skewed to one party, particularly the party which is the less moderate of the two right now.

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

Funny, I'm wondering the exact opposite.

[Roll Roons]

WWC voters in Michigan (and Wisconsin, for that matter) tend to be less religious than those in Ohio. So that also plays a part in explaining why Democrats do better with them in the former two.

Even among religious voters, the differences are significant. In Ohio, you have a lot of Southern evangelical types. But Michigan has a lot of Dutch Reformed, who are much less Trumpy.

[Annatar]

They are just a few election cycles behind in the trend, in 2012 non college whites on Ohio voted more democratic than non college whites in Michigan did for example in 2020.

[Adjective-Statement]

Lower religiosity and more yankeeish culture, as mentioned above. Also, residual UAW influence.

[StateBoiler]

Because dividing the world into tribes is an exercise that only befits pollsters and the idiots that populate this board.

[CadetCashBoi]

They are just a few election cycles behind in the trend, in 2012 non college whites on Ohio voted more democratic than non college whites in Michigan did for example in 2020.

It's not an inevitability that they'll catch up. I think Biden's vocal support for unions will actually make him do better with them in 24.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

They are just a few election cycles behind in the trend, in 2012 non college whites on Ohio voted more democratic than non college whites in Michigan did for example in 2020.

It's not an inevitability that they'll catch up. I think Biden's vocal support for unions will actually make him do better with them in 24.

The idea that there is a "trend" inevitably going one direction, and that such numbers going a certain way in Ohio now says something about what we can strongly presume might happen in Michigan over the next 10 years (or vice versa) is quite fantastical.
We still don't know how solid 2016-2020 numbers are for Rs in these areas long-term are, going forward. American politics are dynamic and capable of sudden change.
It makes little sense to say WWC in MI are just "behind the trend". That implies, on multiple levels, certainty that is simply imprudent. The MW is a region reliably both swingy and marginal and responsive to candidates that fit it well. The D baseline in OH and MI is going down as blacks move out and Dem-leaning oldies dying off is not compensated for by young people moving in, but there are still loads of people who are persuadable for either team.

[CadetCashBoi]

They are just a few election cycles behind in the trend, in 2012 non college whites on Ohio voted more democratic than non college whites in Michigan did for example in 2020.

It's not an inevitability that they'll catch up. I think Biden's vocal support for unions will actually make him do better with them in 24.

The idea that there is a "trend" inevitably going one direction, and that such numbers going a certain way in Ohio now says something about what we can strongly presume might happen in Michigan over the next 10 years (or vice versa) is quite fantastical.
We still don't know how solid 2016-2020 numbers are for Rs in these areas long-term are, going forward. American politics are dynamic and capable of sudden change.
It makes little sense to say WWC in MI are just "behind the trend". That implies, on multiple levels, certainty that is simply imprudent. The MW is a region reliably both swingy and marginal and responsive to candidates that fit it well. The D baseline in OH and MI is going down as blacks move out and Dem-leaning oldies dying off is not compensated for by young people moving in, but there are still loads of people who are persuadable for either team.

I agree, I find it annoying when people act as if trends are inevitable and not subject to change arising from external factors such as the economy, timing of elections and the popularity of the individual candidates.

[Don't Tread on Me]

I think the WWC being focused around Detroit and Flint, verses Ohio's more subrban/exurban WWC movement explains a lot. Also parts of Ohio are more linked to West PA/WV which is a socially conservative area, whereas Michigan is more linked to areas like Wisconsin and Minnesota which while it's still culturally conservative, it is not a socially conservative area (Unless someone considers gun rights to be a social issue).

[Wormless Gourd]

Beyond Albion's Seed reasons working class whites in MI are more urban, more unionized and the state has a very strong and entrenched Dem operation.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Michigan is part of the Upper Midwest, which was settled by New England Yankees. Ohio has Appalachian influences and Michigan does not.

[CentristRepublican]

WWC voters in Michigan (and Wisconsin, for that matter) tend to be less religious than those in Ohio. So that also plays a part in explaining why Democrats do better with them in the former two.

Even among religious voters, the differences are significant. In Ohio, you have a lot of Southern evangelical types. But Michigan has a lot of Dutch Reformed, who are much less Trumpy.

Also (and arguably related to this), southern/eastern Ohio is a part of Appalachia, which explains why it shifted so hard to the right and why it is so hardcore Republican now.

[Del Tachi]

Whites with "lower religiosity and more yankeeish culture" is what the Trump realignment has been all about. 

The answer is simply that Ohio has more influences from Appalachia and the Tennessee Valley region.  Cincinnati is much more Louisville or even Nashville than it is Cleveland at the end of the day.