THG’s current California recall prediction(s)
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  THG’s current California recall prediction(s)
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Author Topic: THG’s current California recall prediction(s)  (Read 2464 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: September 16, 2021, 11:01:56 PM »

OK so there are only 5 more days to receive ballots then? 

And I'm sure they are gonna drop off the later this goes.  So maybe we have more than 78% counted at this point.  This doesn't seem like it's going to change much at all at this point.
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THG
TheTarHeelGent
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« Reply #51 on: September 17, 2021, 10:12:47 AM »

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.

You raise solid points, though I don’t fully agree with everything.

As for the Hispanic thing:

1) This is a special election with lower turnout, it may not be wise to judge trends based on this.

2) Hispanics in California are historically liberal just like Cubans in Florida lean conservative, so either way these aren’t the greatest barometer for that demographic in general. Also Hispanics aren’t monolithic at all, which both Republicans and Democrats seem to misunderstand.

3) We haven’t even gotten the full results yet, so I won’t judge any trends until we do. If you were to go based on the data released so far, it indicates that Newsom basically did similarly among coastal Hispanics in places like the Bay, LA, and OC, but likely regressed among inland Hispanics (SB, Riverside, Fresno and Staninlaus/Merced).
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« Reply #52 on: September 17, 2021, 10:35:09 AM »

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.

You raise solid points, though I don’t fully agree with everything.

As for the Hispanic thing:

1) This is a special election with lower turnout, it may not be wise to judge trends based on this.

2) Hispanics in California are historically liberal just like Cubans in Florida lean conservative, so either way these aren’t the greatest barometer for that demographic in general. Also Hispanics aren’t monolithic at all, which both Republicans and Democrats seem to misunderstand.

3) We haven’t even gotten the full results yet, so I won’t judge any trends until we do. If you were to go based on the data released so far, it indicates that Newsom basically did similarly among coastal Hispanics in places like the Bay, LA, and OC, but likely regressed among inland Hispanics (SB, Riverside, Fresno and Staninlaus/Merced).

Right, my point is that the evidence isn't really there that there will be a big R swing going forward (not that it's impossible, but we'd need to see more evidence to conclude that) and I don't think we're going to see a universal swing among all Latinos either way. We'll have to see what happens in 2022 (keeping in mind the national environment), but I could see an increasing split among urban/rural Latinos. You did predict a collapse in SoCal, and that doesn't seem to have happened, since it looks like he'll get pretty typical numbers for a Democrat there, so it might be good to recognize that.
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THG
TheTarHeelGent
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« Reply #53 on: September 17, 2021, 12:26:27 PM »

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.

You raise solid points, though I don’t fully agree with everything.

As for the Hispanic thing:

1) This is a special election with lower turnout, it may not be wise to judge trends based on this.

2) Hispanics in California are historically liberal just like Cubans in Florida lean conservative, so either way these aren’t the greatest barometer for that demographic in general. Also Hispanics aren’t monolithic at all, which both Republicans and Democrats seem to misunderstand.

3) We haven’t even gotten the full results yet, so I won’t judge any trends until we do. If you were to go based on the data released so far, it indicates that Newsom basically did similarly among coastal Hispanics in places like the Bay, LA, and OC, but likely regressed among inland Hispanics (SB, Riverside, Fresno and Staninlaus/Merced).

Right, my point is that the evidence isn't really there that there will be a big R swing going forward (not that it's impossible, but we'd need to see more evidence to conclude that) and I don't think we're going to see a universal swing among all Latinos either way. We'll have to see what happens in 2022 (keeping in mind the national environment), but I could see an increasing split among urban/rural Latinos. You did predict a collapse in SoCal, and that doesn't seem to have happened, since it looks like he'll get pretty typical numbers for a Democrat there, so it might be good to recognize that.

Well I over estimated the recall margin in SoCal for sure. Although I will wait until all ballots are counted until we can judge.

But yeah anyone who predicted an RGV style swing in California was wrong, even I thought that swings among Latinos would still be smaller.

I actually thought whites would swing heavily for being pro recall and thus cause a huge rightward shift particularly in SoCal, but that appears to have failed completely. If anything whites and specifically college educated whites have stayed exactly similar to usual margins for a Dem!
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« Reply #54 on: September 17, 2021, 02:18:45 PM »

UPDATE:
NO: 6,126,111 (63.6%)
YES: 3,502,254 (37.4%)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: September 17, 2021, 03:09:02 PM »

UPDATE:
NO: 6,126,111 (63.6%)
YES: 3,502,254 (37.4%)

IT GREW RIGHT??
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« Reply #56 on: September 17, 2021, 05:26:12 PM »


No, it was the big reduction that THG had in mind.

Anyway, here are the updated results:
NO: 6,181,244 (63.5%)
YES: 3,552,103 (37.5%)
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« Reply #57 on: September 17, 2021, 06:25:28 PM »

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #58 on: September 17, 2021, 06:27:34 PM »

Just take the L, man. I thought Dems would win Texas in 2020 and owned up to being wrong.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #59 on: September 17, 2021, 06:29:45 PM »

Just take the L, man. I thought Dems would win Texas in 2020 and owned up to being wrong.

He's still looking for whole pieces of corn in this turd of an election for him. It really reeks of desperation.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #60 on: September 17, 2021, 06:49:45 PM »

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 
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theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #61 on: September 17, 2021, 08:16:42 PM »

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: September 18, 2021, 07:36:39 PM »

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

LOL, so there's been almost no tightening at all?  A couple of people here keep saying this will tighten to around a 20% margin.  Not happening. 
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« Reply #63 on: September 18, 2021, 07:55:02 PM »

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

LOL, so there's been almost no tightening at all?  A couple of people here keep saying this will tighten to around a 20% margin.  Not happening. 

Minor vote drop:

NO: 6,714,964 (63.5%)
YES: 3,860,657 (36.5%)
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: September 18, 2021, 07:56:17 PM »

It grew:

NO: 6,446,504 (63.6%)
YES: 3,684,144 (36.4%)

What's the explanation?  Just bluer counties reporting now?  I think people here are looking too much at the last election (as always) in thinking there would be a huge split between early absentee / absentee / Election Day / late absentee balloting etc. etc.  It seems like there are some differences here and there but not huge ones.  It's looking like NO could stay north of +25.  Newsom won by +24. 

I don't know. Anyway, massive vote drop brings us up to 85% in:

NO: 6,698,131 (63.5%)
YES: 3,856,169 (36.5%)

LOL, so there's been almost no tightening at all?  A couple of people here keep saying this will tighten to around a 20% margin.  Not happening. 

Minor vote drop:

NO: 6,714,964 (63.5%)
YES: 3,860,657 (36.5%)

No change at all with each vote drop...  it is not going to 20 like some have adamantly claimed.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #65 on: September 19, 2021, 12:01:32 AM »

I don't know how accurate this is but according to CNN it looks like the only huge vote county with a ton of outstanding vote is Alameda, which is currently voting NO (82-17).  It says it's only 65% in, which is way below the state avg.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/results/california/recall
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #66 on: September 20, 2021, 06:48:21 PM »

slight update:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2021/results/california

No - 63.4%   6,841,992
Yes - 36.6%   3,956,977

Essentially no movement.  Says 84% in.  The estimates of it going down to a 20% margin are way off base as are the exit polls that keep being cited in every thread. 
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #67 on: September 20, 2021, 09:39:21 PM »

BIGGER update:

No 63.0%    6,984,595
Yes 37.0%    4,094,764

Now saying 87% in.  Getting close to final.  Margin now 26 even.
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« Reply #68 on: September 20, 2021, 10:50:26 PM »

BIGGER update:

No 63.0% 6,984,595
Yes 37.0% 4,094,764

Now saying 87% in.  Getting close to final.  Margin now 26 even.

NYT says 89%. Either way, THG isn't going to be correct.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #69 on: September 21, 2021, 09:08:15 PM »

over 90% in now.  Still 26% margin.  So it looks like NO wins by a larger margin than Newsom did in 2018 (Dem wave year).
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