THG’s current California recall prediction(s)
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  THG’s current California recall prediction(s)
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Author Topic: THG’s current California recall prediction(s)  (Read 2462 times)
THG
TheTarHeelGent
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« Reply #25 on: September 15, 2021, 09:30:48 PM »
« edited: September 15, 2021, 09:36:29 PM by Freethinker Tom Rice »

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.




No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.


More votes were just counted in OC and Gavin's NO lead increased.  There is no way either your initial prediction or your revised prediction are even remotely close to accurate.  

We'll see! I'll be happy for you if you're right.

Like I said, I'm only basing my predictions off of what occurred in 2020. Vote dumps other than the OC one you highlighted have actually showcased that late ballots and in person vote dumps have generally actually favored YES.

Also, YES on recall has gradually increased since last night. This indicates that late ballots lean Republican and keep in mind that in person votes in California are generally counted after election day, unlike other states.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: September 15, 2021, 09:36:44 PM »

Also my FINAL prediction had Newsom winning by closer to 15 than single digits.

I think No wins by 10-15 rather than 20, but I could be wrong. Anyhow, one of my friends recently bet me $500 that recall wins and I bet $500 recall loses.




No your final prediction wasn't "closer to 15" it was 10-15, which is still double digits off despite the fact that you made it 24 hours before poll closing.  The fact that you can't just admit you were way way way off when you've lambasted Democrats for far less egregious errors is sad.

I would wait until all the election day votes are counted if I were you, and I've explained why.

Trump was losing California by 40 on November the 4th, which was obviously "double digits off" to what the his real margin of loss is. I'm not guaranteeing a huge swing to Elder- I believe "No" wins by 20 as of now, but California hasn't even finished counting of all the ballots so far.


More votes were just counted in OC and Gavin's NO lead increased.  There is no way either your initial prediction or your revised prediction are even remotely close to accurate. 

We'll see! I'll be happy for you if you're right.

Like I said, I'm only basing my predictions off of what occurred in 2020. Most of the other vote dumps other than the OC one you highlighted have actually showcased that late ballots and in person vote dumps have generally actually favored YES.

Also, YES on recall has gradually increased since last night. This indicates that late ballots lean Republican and that in person votes in California are generally counted after election day, unlike other states.

Current margin is 27.5.  You've got a long way to go to get that down to ur second-revised-prediction of 20, which is still higher than your revision of "closer to 15" which is higher than "10-15," which is higher than "5-10" (which is where we started just 2 weeks ago). But we'll see.  Call me optimistic but I don't think it gets down to 20. 

The irony here as that setting expectations so low has really now empowered Gavin "Nuisance" which I am sure was not what you guys wanted, right?
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #27 on: September 15, 2021, 11:57:41 PM »

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.
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Chips
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« Reply #28 on: September 16, 2021, 05:39:24 AM »

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.
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THG
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« Reply #29 on: September 16, 2021, 08:31:58 AM »

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.

I also find it hilarious how they’re telling me to delete my account when most of the Election Day votes apparently haven’t been counted yet.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #30 on: September 16, 2021, 08:54:10 AM »

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.

I also find it hilarious how they’re telling me to delete my account when most of the Election Day votes apparently haven’t been counted yet.

All of the EDay vote has been counted. What’s left are votes by mail received on or postmarked to election day.
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THG
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« Reply #31 on: September 16, 2021, 09:13:15 AM »

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.

I also find it hilarious how they’re telling me to delete my account when most of the Election Day votes apparently haven’t been counted yet.

All of the EDay vote has been counted. What’s left are votes by mail received on or postmarked to election day.

I’m hearing mixed reports on this, but there are 3-4 million votes remaining, and I’d assume that a lot of them have to be ED votes or in person votes.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #32 on: September 16, 2021, 09:29:17 AM »

Really the only in-person votes to be counted are any provisional or same day registration voters which will be tiny numbers.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #33 on: September 16, 2021, 09:43:33 AM »

In a situation like this you just have to do the right thing and delete your account.

I'm pretty sure one cannot willingly delete an account.

I also find it hilarious how they’re telling me to delete my account when most of the Election Day votes apparently haven’t been counted yet.

All of the EDay vote has been counted. What’s left are votes by mail received on or postmarked to election day.
  Actually, it should be anything received after the beginning of in-person voting.  Which I believe was 4 days including Tuesday
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #34 on: September 16, 2021, 10:26:25 AM »

If you are wrong here on Atlas, the best thing to do is just take the L. Don’t dig yourself in any further.
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« Reply #35 on: September 16, 2021, 01:44:00 PM »

Updates THG?  New data is out.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: September 16, 2021, 02:15:41 PM »

If you are wrong here on Atlas, the best thing to do is just take the L. Don’t dig yourself in any further.

What is disturbing is this seems to be a trend among blue avatars and Republicans in general.  Trump has taught them that if you are wrong just deny it, obfuscate the facts, misrepresent the past, muddy the waters.  There is no more objective truth for 40% of the country. 
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Damocles
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« Reply #37 on: September 16, 2021, 03:43:41 PM »

Hold this L.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #38 on: September 16, 2021, 05:10:07 PM »

If you are wrong here on Atlas, the best thing to do is just take the L. Don’t dig yourself in any further.

What is disturbing is this seems to be a trend among blue avatars and Republicans in general.  Trump has taught them that if you are wrong just deny it, obfuscate the facts, misrepresent the past, muddy the waters.  There is no more objective truth for 40% of the country. 

That's why they're the Gas-lighting Obfuscating Projectionists.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #39 on: September 16, 2021, 05:14:08 PM »

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.
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« Reply #40 on: September 16, 2021, 05:22:35 PM »

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #41 on: September 16, 2021, 05:26:11 PM »

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

So far no. It's been the same all of today.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #42 on: September 16, 2021, 05:27:53 PM »

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

So far no. It's been the same all of today.

So it could end up still being over +25 for NO when everything's counted?  I am having trouble understanding how they can make estimates of outstanding ballots when everyone is sent a ballot and some could have just mailed it out the day before the election.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #43 on: September 16, 2021, 05:38:21 PM »

Okay, for the record here are the current results:

✓NO: 5,907,575 (63.8%)
YES: 3,354,109 (36.2%)

Also for THG's information the remaining votes will be relatively split, since the mail-in within four days and drop-box returns counteract the Election Day vote.

It doesn't look like it's tightening all that much?

So far no. It's been the same all of today.

So it could end up still being over +25 for NO when everything's counted?  I am having trouble understanding how they can make estimates of outstanding ballots when everyone is sent a ballot and some could have just mailed it out the day before the election.

This is all new so nobody knows for sure. 
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Xing
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« Reply #44 on: September 16, 2021, 05:56:37 PM »

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.
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Chips
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« Reply #45 on: September 16, 2021, 06:43:25 PM »

Everyone makes bad predictions from time to time. I've made plenty. The important thing is owning it and understanding what you got wrong. I get that it's tempting for Republicans to think that the R trend among Latinos will continue, and while I don't think the Clinton/Trump or No vote '16/Trump voters are going to all come back to the Democrats in 2022/2024, I don't think there's clear evidence of a large number of Biden/Republican '24 Latino voters.

I agree. There's definitely a decent chance latinos swing left in 2024.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2021, 07:52:03 PM »

SOCAL PRECINCT RESULTS IN (but it is behind a paywall):

https://www.latimes.com/projects/newsom-recall-election-results-southern-california-analysis/
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2021, 10:15:38 PM »

UPDATE:

78% IN:

NO: 6,120,868 (63.7%)
YES: 3,492,387 (36.3%)

Hey THG is this the ED vote R swing you had in mind?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2021, 10:42:45 PM »

UPDATE:

78% IN:

NO: 6,120,868 (63.7%)
YES: 3,492,387 (36.3%)

Hey THG is this the ED vote R swing you had in mind?

I can't remember what it was on election night at this point but it looks like it's barely swung 1%.  Why was the assumption that it would swing anyways?  I thought the Election Day vote was the most Republican and presumably most of the late ballots were mailed.  What am I missing here?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2021, 10:55:19 PM »

UPDATE:

78% IN:

NO: 6,120,868 (63.7%)
YES: 3,492,387 (36.3%)

Hey THG is this the ED vote R swing you had in mind?

I can't remember what it was on election night at this point but it looks like it's barely swung 1%.  Why was the assumption that it would swing anyways?  I thought the Election Day vote was the most Republican and presumably most of the late ballots were mailed.  What am I missing here?

It's just that THG in his 'hot take' forgot to mention how ED vote includes day-of drop boxes and mail-in ballots received up to one week after election day.
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