VA-Trafalgar: Tie

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1432654896990461954

https://thetrafalgargroup.org/VA-21Gen-Gov-Aug-Poll-Report.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He still leads and D's will get a better mp in Early voting

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup. Trafalgar was the most accurate poll in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Tossup. Trafalgar was the most accurate poll in 2020.

They really weren't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Traggy like last time doesn't account for Early voting that's why they predicted MI and GA Warnock rave wrong, D's will win the Early vote, that's why we will win both Cali and VA

[Sir Mohamed]

Trafalgar wasn't that off in presidential elections when Trump was on ballot. In off year election and midterms like 2018, they were dead wrong.

Race remains Likely D until proven otherwise.

[TML]

Let me remind everyone that for this race back in 2017, some polls had the Republican candidate leading by as much as 8 points. So it shouldn't be surprising that a few polls here and there may show the Republican candidate either leading or trailing narrowly.

[Senator Incitatus]

This is about where I expect the race to be. VA, mostly unlike CA and definitely unlike NJ, has potential for some polling error.

[Lief 🗽]

Trafalgar’s final poll here in 2017 was also Northam +1. He won by 9.

[Vosem]

Convention is to round to nearest whole numbers, so I would report this poll as McAuliffe+1.

Anyway, Trafalgar is very good (and nailed the primaries here earlier), but they have a bit of a Republican house effect. I'd imagine if they show McAuliffe winning then he is very likely doing so.

[CityofSinners]

Anyway, Trafalgar is very good (and nailed the primaries here earlier), but they have a bit of a Republican house effect.

I wouldn't call missing the 2017 race by 8 points very good. They had Northam+1 and he won by 9.

[TodayJunior]

Virginia is screaming, Color me Blue!!!

[THG]

Trafalgar is generally fairly accurate, but I still have this race as lean D.

[DrScholl]

Trafalgar had Trump winning Pennsylvania and Michigan last year so that tells you everything you need to know. And if I recall there was a rumor that they were faking polls because one of their polling memos was left on a Google Drive and when someone pointed out that something seemed off they deleted it.

[Devils30]

This firm literally makes up numbers and has had numerous 10-14% misses in non 2020 years. Even in a banner 2020 they had Trump winning Georgia Michigan Pennsylvania Arizona and Nevada. I don’t think 5 states off in your best year signals a good pollster.

[Non Swing Voter]

Doesn't fivethirtyeight ban their polls?  This site should too.

[kwabbit]

Doesn't fivethirtyeight ban their polls?  This site should too.

538 upgraded them after 2020 given their relatively accuracy. They are now an A-. Their polls are suspect, but they have a decent record of success at this point. Some huge misses in the Sunbelt in 2018, but they were closer than most of the gold-standard firms in most other regions 2016-2020. I assume their success will dry up if gold-standards ever stop underestimating the GOP, because it often seems that they use ad-hoc adjustments to give good results to Republicans.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race should be ignored until after Cali recall

[Non Swing Voter]

Wasn't that guy in some kind of ballot scandal or am I mistaking him?