Will Virginia end up like Illinois or Maryland long term?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Virginia will be more similar to Illinois then Maryland long term. Virginia has more rural areas and is more Southern then Maryland. I can't ever see Virginia going Democratic by over 30%. Ending up like Illinois and New Jersey in the 15-17% margin seems more realistic.

[Raccoon]

More like the GOP's Ohio. Sometimes fairly close margins for the GOP but a consistently Democratic state.

I have a difficult time seeing Virginia Democrats going above a 12 point margin with much frequency.

[THG]

It’s probably going to be a D+10-15 point win consistently after 2024, if not more. I do think Colorado will be more outright liberal however, and do not be shocked if Colorado votes to the left of Illinois.

[Non Swing Voter]

Virginia has one of the greatest disparities of any state in terms of how fast rural areas are shrinking versus how fast urban/suburban areas are expanding.  Loudoun county has been growing similar to the fastest growing counties of Florida.  But in Florida, the rural and exurban areas aren't really shrinking.  Meanwhile, there are counties in southwest Virginia that lost 10% of their population last decade.  

Unless the current party coalitions change (or Dems nominate a Bernie Sanders type) it is a near certainty that Democrats will start routinely winning the state by 15 or so points on good years.

VA is more like MD geographically because it doesn't have a super huge city like Chicago but you won't get MD margins because it's not quite as diverse.  Virginia does have a substantial amount of rural areas now but long term they will be completely unimportant to statewide elections.  

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

More like the GOP's Ohio. Sometimes fairly close margins for the GOP but a consistently Democratic state.

I have a difficult time seeing Virginia Democrats going above a 12 point margin with much frequency.

Since 2004, Virginia has trended 2-3 points in the Democrats favor each election. 10 years from now it could be a massacre for Republicans. Trump accelerated the trend, but it started in the Bush era.

[Non Swing Voter]

More like the GOP's Ohio. Sometimes fairly close margins for the GOP but a consistently Democratic state.

I have a difficult time seeing Virginia Democrats going above a 12 point margin with much frequency.

Since 2004, Virginia has trended 2-3 points in the Democrats favor each election. 10 years from now it could be a massacre for Republicans. Trump accelerated the trend, but it started in the Bush era.

Bush started the new party coalitions.  He made Republicans the "OUR COUNTRY" party instead of the educated/upscale party.  Since then it's 100% been population shifts in Virginia.  It's not likely the 2-3 point shift will abate unless Dems start nominating socialists and lose tons of support in NOVA.

[MT Treasurer]

This decade, it will most likely not approach the margins D routinely rack up in MD, but in terms of likelihood of a D win at the state/federal level, the two parties's coalitions (as well as the demographic changes and migration patterns that enabled shifts within them), and the geographic distribution of the electorate, it’s basically MD at this point. If a fairly competent R challenger like Youngkin loses a non-federal race by (close to) high single digits to a very underwhelming Democrat even in an environment that favors the GOP, that pretty much tells you all you need to know. It’s worth underscoring again that deceptively 'close' margins ≠ likelihood of a win for the dominant party (this also applies to CO, although we’re already seeing signs of that state voting D by OR/WA-type margins).

[Non Swing Voter]

Imagine truly believing Youngkin is a competent challenger.  Glenn, is that you?

[Alben Barkley]

Imagine truly believing Youngkin is a competent challenger.  Glenn, is that you?

And T-Mac "very underwhelming?"

LMAO

[THG]

T-Mac is running a horrendous campaign. If he was running in a state that was actually competitive, he’d be in deep trouble.

[MT Treasurer]

T-Mac is running a horrendous campaign. If he was running in a state that was actually competitive, he’d be in deep trouble.

Boring and predictable trolls and/or hacks are better left unenganged/ignored. I put them on ignore and it improved my experience on this forum considerably.

[Non Swing Voter]

Imagine truly believing Youngkin is a competent challenger.  Glenn, is that you?

And T-Mac "very underwhelming?"

LMAO

To be fair, it's probably not Glenn Youngkin, just a Republican sycophant.  If you do a search on MT Treasurer's posts it's mostly failed predictions or outright inaccuracies.  Then when cornered on basic facts like Arlington is not in Fairfax county he lashes out and calls people trolls or hacks.  I guess it's all they've got at this point. 

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac is running a horrendous campaign. If he was running in a state that was actually competitive, he’d be in deep trouble.

I guess if you say it enough times then some people will believe it.  Lets get "Arlington is in Fairfax County" trending too.

[THG]

"Mostly failed predictions or outright inaccuracies" sounds like NSV's entire post history, eh.

[Non Swing Voter]

"Mostly failed predictions or outright inaccuracies" sounds like NSV's entire post history, eh.

Who is this tar heel guy anyways.  He appears to have registered like 2 months ago and has made a lot of accusations against other posters. 

[Don't Tread on Me]

I think it would end up somewhere in between, but heading towards Maryland in the long term. I think NOVA will vote to the left of Chicago and will look more like Central Maryland and the rural areas would be slightly to the left of the rural Illinois areas, although I think Illinois outside of the Collar Counties/Chicago will begin to trend rightward (though the first will keep the state from becoming competitive for at least a few decades). Georgia on the other hand will probably look like Illinois, becoming solidly Democratic but rarely breaking 60%, except for if a native son/daughter runs during a recession.

[Skill and Chance]

T-Mac is running a horrendous campaign. If he was running in a state that was actually competitive, he’d be in deep trouble.

Ehhh... IDK.  The Trump era stuff from McAuliffe is getting very stale very fast, but Youngkin is also running like he's in Texas.  Hard to say who is doing worse.

[THG]

T-Mac is running a horrendous campaign. If he was running in a state that was actually competitive, he’d be in deep trouble.

Ehhh... IDK.  The Trump era stuff from McAuliffe is getting very stale very fast, but Youngkin is also running like he's in Texas.  Hard to say who is doing worse.

I never claimed that Youngkin was running a brilliant campaign either.

[Non Swing Voter]

T-Mac is running a horrendous campaign. If he was running in a state that was actually competitive, he’d be in deep trouble.

Ehhh... IDK.  The Trump era stuff from McAuliffe is getting very stale very fast, but Youngkin is also running like he's in Texas.  Hard to say who is doing worse.

Youngkin is doing worse because he's clearly losing and literally throwing money down the toilet doing so.  Tarheelgent and others' false assertions aside, anyone who knows Virginia politics knows that McAuliffe is shoring up the vote he needs to to win Virginia whereas Youngkin is floundering around already turning to the same type of MS-13 drivel that failed last time.

[Non Swing Voter]

Terry's campaign is like a well oiled machine this cycle.  Just dropped a pro-abortion ad with a female doctor blasting through NOVA.  Perfectly timed with this Texas nonsense.  Anyone claiming Terry is running a horrendous campaign simply has no understanding of what's going on in Virginia or of Virginia voters.  Next we'll hear Arlington is part of Fairfax.