2024 swings you're absolutely sure of?

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Fayette County Georgia swings R

[It’s so Joever]

Fayette County Georgia swings R

Top tier trolling.

[Leroy McPherson fan]

Fayette County Georgia swings R

Top tier trolling.

How?

[Roll Roons]

If Trump is on the ballot, I think it's a given that Utah swings left. Biden probably cracks 40%.

[Xing]

Delaware trends Republican, so does Utah if Trump isn't the nominee.

Georgia and Hawaii trend Democratic.

There are others that I'm not not 100% sure of, but that I think are very likely (Iowa and Texas continue trending Republican and Democratic, respectively, even if they "only" trended a bit R/D in 2020.)

[Leroy McPherson fan]

South Texas swings Republican.

[Grassroots]

Illinois swinging R, Wyoming and Idaho swinging D.

[n59690]

Texas moving to the left on 2024.

2020 Margin: +5.6 R
2024 Margin: +0.2 D
2028 Margin: +0.7 D


Hear me out. The only thing Republicans have going on Presidential Elections in Texas are:


1. Incumbent factor (Statewide offices are all R)
2. A +6 point net swing in El Paso county for Republicans in 2020 (yes, after the 2018 mall shooting)
3. Rio Grande Valley/Rural Hispanics

What Dems have going:

1. Extremely fast growing suburbs: 70% of Texans live inside the "Texas Triangle". It includes: Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio/Austin, Houston, New Braunfels, as well as the neighboring suburbs of each city, growing Democrat with each passing election.

4 of the 10 fastest growing cities in the U.S. are in, wait for it... Texas.

2. Diversity: 95% of Texas' population growth since 2010 came from people of color. POC vote more Democrat, especially in cities and suburbs.

3. Abortion ban. Most people state and nationwide oppose the 6-week abortion ban. Swinging voters, moderates, women, and Gen-Z can radically show up to the polls, strongly countering the "Biden-Afghanistan Crisis" and "Border Crisis" talking points Republicans use on Texas.

4. Electric grid failure. Houston is the 3rd largest city in the country, disproportionately affected (also Dallas) by the electric grid failure of 2021, caused by de-regulation of the energy industry mixed with an extreme Winter storm. The "Cancun Cruz" narrative doesn't suit well for R's either.

Senator Mark Kelly's  brother, also a recognized astronaut, plans to run against Cruz on 2024.

For more context: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ).