2024 swings you're absolutely sure of?

[Wormless Gourd]

What are some 2024 shifts you're absolutely sure of? Assume Trump isn't the R and Biden is running for a full second term.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

West Virginia swinging Dem. Trump was a very good fit for it and Biden wasn't far from the best Dem for it among possible nominees and in 2024 he'd be running as an incumbent and thus benefit from incumbency bonus, so a change in nominee for Rs should likely improve Ds there (though not remotely enough to even potentially making it competitive).

[Schiff for Senate]

If Trump isn't on the ballot, OH, IA, and ME-02 swing hard left.

I think there's a <5% chance Biden runs and a ~40% chance Trump runs though, so I don't agree with the premise in this hypothetical.

There's probably a higher chance than that, though I still think Kamala Harris will be the nominee and that Biden will not be running in 2024 (he shouldn't).

Interestingly, if he doesn't, though, he'll be the first incumbent president who could constitutionally run for another term and didn't do so even once since Chester Arthur in 1884.

[S019]

TX/GA/VA swinging to the left, IA/OH swinging to the right (especially IA)

If Trump isn't on the ballot, OH, IA, and ME-02 swing hard left.

I think there's a <5% chance Biden runs and a ~40% chance Trump runs though, so I don't agree with the premise in this hypothetical.

after 2020, I'm pretty sure the Democrats have given up on both OH and IA

[Biden his time]

New Hampshire and Maine trending right
Pennsylvania swinging right if Harris runs
Georgia swinging left
Texas swinging left if Trump runs

[THG]

Colorado and Georgia trending left.

Ohio, Florida, and Iowa trending right.

North Carolina trending nowhere.

[Schiff for Senate]

If Trump isn't on the ballot, OH, IA, and ME-02 swing hard left.

I think there's a <5% chance Biden runs and a ~40% chance Trump runs though, so I don't agree with the premise in this hypothetical.

There's probably a higher chance than that, though I still think Kamala Harris will be the nominee and that Biden will not be running in 2024 (he shouldn't).

Interestingly, if he doesn't, though, he'll be the first incumbent president who could constitutionally run for another term and didn't do so even once since Chester Arthur in 1884.

Coolidge, Truman, Johnson?

I know, and that's why I worded my description the way I did, but it still may sound confusing or misleading. All three were incumbent presidents (because their predecessors died in office while they were vice-presidents). The words 'even once' are key here. The three ran for a full term as president while they were incumbents (in 1924, 1948 and 1964, respectively) and won. Technically, they were eligible to, and could have, run again for another full term, and didn't. But all three still did run for a term in office as incumbents. Perhaps it's the word 'another' in my prior post that makes this misleading, but what I mean is that all incumbent presidents who were eligible to have run for a(nother) full term at least once, including these three, even though they technically were only elected president once, since they were (unelected) incumbents when they ran for a full term.

[Schiff for Senate]

Colorado and Georgia trending left.

Ohio, Florida, and Iowa trending right.

North Carolina trending nowhere.

Until 2024, we can't be sure FL is trending further rightward, staying static, or potentially shifting even leftward. It will almost certainly trend rightward if Ron DeSantis is the nominee, but that's not necessary right now, and if he isn't, until 2022 we cannot be sure of what direction FL is headed. And Obama 2012 - Trump 2020 voters in IA and OH who decide to support the Democrats in 2024 (particularly if Trump isn't the nominee) will outnumber the Biden 2020 voters who will back some other Republican. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Trump in 2016 and 2020 reached an apex in IA and OH that won't be attained by any candidate (red or blue) for a while unless it's either a very good year for one party, or unless the nominee in question comes from OH or IA and is popular in their home state. OH and IA probably won't trend massively leftward, since the majority of Obama/Trump voters are gone for Democrats, but I'm guessing both states will either trend somewhat leftward or at the very worst, swing very slightly rightward. I'm not saying they can't, but it's highly unlikely they do. There's no reason whatsoever to be absolutely sure that OH, IA and FL are heading rightward right now (and to be fair, there's no reason to be absolutely sure they'll shift leftward either, though that's more likely than their shifting rightward, at least for OH and IA).

[S019]

Colorado and Georgia trending left.

Ohio, Florida, and Iowa trending right.

North Carolina trending nowhere.

Until 2024, we can't be sure FL is trending further rightward, staying static, or potentially shifting even leftward. It will almost certainly trend rightward if Ron DeSantis is the nominee, but that's not necessary right now, and if he isn't, until 2022 we cannot be sure of what direction FL is headed. And Obama 2012 - Trump 2020 voters in IA and OH who decide to support the Democrats in 2024 (particularly if Trump isn't the nominee) will outnumber the Biden 2020 voters who will back some other Republican. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Trump in 2016 and 2020 reached an apex in IA and OH that won't be attained by any candidate (red or blue) for a while unless it's either a very good year for one party, or unless the nominee in question comes from OH or IA and is popular in their home state. OH and IA probably won't trend massively leftward, since the majority of Obama/Trump voters are gone for Democrats, but I'm guessing both states will either trend somewhat leftward or at the very worst, swing very slightly rightward. I'm not saying they can't, but it's highly unlikely they do. There's no reason whatsoever to be absolutely sure that OH, IA and FL are heading rightward right now (and to be fair, there's no reason to be absolutely sure they'll shift leftward either, though that's more likely than their shifting rightward, at least for OH and IA).

Hard disagree, the issues for Democrats in both states, but especially OH, honestly, had been lying under the radar for a hard time. Compare Ohio in 2004 and 2008 to 2012 for instance, you'll see that Obama fell quite a bit in Appalachia, that trend simply continued under Clinton and Biden. Also for all of the talk of Biden being a good nominee for the Midwest he fell further than Clinton in both Appalachia and the I-90 corridor. As for Iowa, it should be noted that Democrats were holding onto a lot of residual rural strength, which they had a pattern of evaporating from them, long before Trump came around, including in neighboring Missouri. This idea that they were not destined for a large fall in Iowa is simply absurd if you look at the coalition that they were winning the state on. Especially in Ohio, Democrats still have a lot of room to fall, I would not be shocked at all if Republicans won both Ohio and Iowa by 12 points or more in 2024.

[Schiff for Senate]

Colorado and Georgia trending left.

Ohio, Florida, and Iowa trending right.

North Carolina trending nowhere.

Until 2024, we can't be sure FL is trending further rightward, staying static, or potentially shifting even leftward. It will almost certainly trend rightward if Ron DeSantis is the nominee, but that's not necessary right now, and if he isn't, until 2022 we cannot be sure of what direction FL is headed. And Obama 2012 - Trump 2020 voters in IA and OH who decide to support the Democrats in 2024 (particularly if Trump isn't the nominee) will outnumber the Biden 2020 voters who will back some other Republican. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Trump in 2016 and 2020 reached an apex in IA and OH that won't be attained by any candidate (red or blue) for a while unless it's either a very good year for one party, or unless the nominee in question comes from OH or IA and is popular in their home state. OH and IA probably won't trend massively leftward, since the majority of Obama/Trump voters are gone for Democrats, but I'm guessing both states will either trend somewhat leftward or at the very worst, swing very slightly rightward. I'm not saying they can't, but it's highly unlikely they do. There's no reason whatsoever to be absolutely sure that OH, IA and FL are heading rightward right now (and to be fair, there's no reason to be absolutely sure they'll shift leftward either, though that's more likely than their shifting rightward, at least for OH and IA).

Hard disagree, the issues for Democrats in both states, but especially OH, honestly, had been lying under the radar for a hard time. Compare Ohio in 2004 and 2008 to 2012 for instance, you'll see that Obama fell quite a bit in Appalachia, that trend simply continued under Clinton and Biden. Also for all of the talk of Biden being a good nominee for the Midwest he fell further than Clinton in both Appalachia and the I-90 corridor. As for Iowa, it should be noted that Democrats were holding onto a lot of residual rural strength, which they had a pattern of evaporating from them, long before Trump came around, including in neighboring Missouri. This idea that they were not destined for a large fall in Iowa is simply absurd if you look at the coalition that they were winning the state on. Especially in Ohio, Democrats still have a lot of room to fall, I would not be shocked at all if Republicans won both Ohio and Iowa by 12 points or more in 2024.

But Trump won over, I feel, the vast majority of rural voters who will be voting red in 2024. I don't think the few Clinton/Biden voters left in rural areas will revert in 2024. If Trump couldn't, I don't see any of the GOP nominnes of 2024 being able to do it. Long-term, rural areas which Trump swung hard rightward will definitely continue their rightward shift (though more slowly), but I feel as if in 2024, even if they shift rightward, it will not be a huge shift. There were a lot of rural Clinton voters that Gore could lose, and did lose. There were a lot of Obama 2008 voters Obama 2012 could lose, and did lose (though interestingly, in a strip of counties in south-central Ohio that are arguably Appalachian, Obama outperformed his 2008 performance and very nearly one one of the counties). But I don't think there are many Biden 2020 voters that the Democratic nominee in 2024 (Biden or Harris) need to really worry about losing. Yes, some may flip, but certainly not enough for either IA or OH to go red by 12 (?!) points. Even 10 points is most likely a stretch. Why would someone who rejected Trump in 2020 go and back the GOP nominee in 2024 (who I'm guessing will be less populist and will have less rural appeal)? Even if Trump is the Republican candidate again in 2024, I don't think he'll be quite as appealing as he was back in 2020 and massively less appealing than he was in 2016 - there's something about refusing to admit defeat and trying to stage an attack on your country's capitol that I think turns voters away from supporting you, and I don't think even Trump can evade this. In fact I can easily see OH and IA potentially shift leftward.

[MT Treasurer]

'Absolutely' is too strong a word but I’m fairly sure about these (ranked from most to least confident):

D -> R:

IA
VT
ME
NM
OH
NH
CA

R -> D:

WY
AK
KS
GA
KY
TN
MO

[AGA]

West Virginia swinging Dem. Trump was a very good fit for it and Biden wasn't far from the best Dem for it among possible nominees and in 2024 he'd be running as an incumbent and thus benefit from incumbency bonus, so a change in nominee for Rs should likely improve Ds there (though not remotely enough to even potentially making it competitive).

I disagree. WV not only swung, but also trended D in 2020. I doubt that it would swing D twice in a row. Also remember that Harris has a good chance of being the nominee, who is a worse fit for WV than Biden.

Anyway, I'm not *sure* about any swings, but if I had to guess, I'd say that OH, IA, and ME swing R while AK and GA swing D.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

West Virginia swinging Dem. Trump was a very good fit for it and Biden wasn't far from the best Dem for it among possible nominees and in 2024 he'd be running as an incumbent and thus benefit from incumbency bonus, so a change in nominee for Rs should likely improve Ds there (though not remotely enough to even potentially making it competitive).

I disagree. WV not only swung, but also trended D in 2020. I doubt that it would swing D twice in a row. Also remember that Harris has a good chance of being the nominee, who is a worse fit for WV than Biden.

Anyway, I'm not *sure* about any swings, but if I had to guess, I'd say that OH, IA, and ME swing R while AK and GA swing D.

WV did not exhibit a huge swing or trend in the Dem direction in 2020. And I don't think the chance Biden retires is high enough for it to be rational to include that in the calculation. Even if Harris is picked, consider that WV in 2020 was a case of GOP presidential candidate having incumbency advantage, and in this context, nobody having the incumbent advantage is still better for Ds than Republicans having it.

[progressive85]

Most of the country swings at least a little bit to where they swung in 2020 because 2024 is a very nasty, very stressful rematch between Biden and Trump.  The hardliners pull a little bit of the indies that lean their way to them, which creates an even more divided nation in 2024.  And you thought it couldn't get more divided?

[Non Swing Voter]

I'd add Alaska.  I think it will swing left.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I'm not guaranteeing any swings because I don't know who the nominees will be.

Even though Georgia looks like the state with the best future trends for Democrats based on migration, Biden's approval rating seems to have fallen more there compared to other states.

The only trend I'd actually put money on is Delaware trending Republican. Illinois trended Republican in 2012, Texas trended Democrat in 2004, and Arkansas trended Republican in 1996. That seems to be the norm for incumbents who served statewide.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm not guaranteeing any swings because I don't know who the nominees will be.

Even though Georgia looks like the state with the best future trends for Democrats based on migration, Biden's approval rating seems to have fallen more there compared to other states.

The only trend I'd actually put money on is Delaware trending Republican. Illinois trended Republican in 2012, Texas trended Democrat in 2004, and Arkansas trended Republican in 1996. That seems to be the norm for incumbents who served statewide.

New York and Florida both trended Republican in 2020, though.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I'm not guaranteeing any swings because I don't know who the nominees will be.

Even though Georgia looks like the state with the best future trends for Democrats based on migration, Biden's approval rating seems to have fallen more there compared to other states.

The only trend I'd actually put money on is Delaware trending Republican. Illinois trended Republican in 2012, Texas trended Democrat in 2004, and Arkansas trended Republican in 1996. That seems to be the norm for incumbents who served statewide.

New York and Florida both trended Republican in 2020, though.

Trump never held office as a statewide candidate in New York and Florida. However, Hillary Clinton did. That wouldn't be a good counterexample.

[Skill and Chance]

Absolutely sure may be too strong, but I really like the odds for Dem improvement in a post-abortion Deep South. 

[Ferguson97]

Democrats slightly improve with Hispanics and do slightly worse with Asians.

[MarkD]

I say Hawaii is certainly going to swing toward incumbent Biden. Hawaii very often swings toward incumbents; the state swung more Republican in 2012, 2016, and 2020, and so the next most appropriate swing will be for it to go back more Democratic.

[Schiff for Senate]

West Virginia swinging Dem. Trump was a very good fit for it and Biden wasn't far from the best Dem for it among possible nominees and in 2024 he'd be running as an incumbent and thus benefit from incumbency bonus, so a change in nominee for Rs should likely improve Ds there (though not remotely enough to even potentially making it competitive).

KY is even likelier, for similar reasons, and more. It trended leftward in 2020, and its rural areas have peaked, just like WV's. And it's got more subruban/urban areas shifting definitively leftward, like the Cincinnati suburbs, Lexington, and Louisville itself.

[Schiff for Senate]

So just to clarify, I'm going to go against the grain and say that OH and IA will probably swing leftward in 2024.

[It’s so Joever]

Utah will trend left, Maine will trend right.
I don’t make the rules.

[Schiff for Senate]

Utah will trend left, Maine will trend right.
I don’t make the rules.

I disagree with both, particularly UT. That shift was definitely Trump- and McMullin-driven, and also the fact that Romney was perfect for UT and no one could do as well as him in a presidential race. In 2020, when McMullin wasn't on the ballot, it swung a few points rightward. It's not likely to trend leftward now that Trump's not on the ballot (if he is, it's a different story), and might in fact trend rightward.