What if Trump won a 2nd term (By issue; prediction)

[Make America Grumpy Again]

As of 9/25/21 with updates:

Control: GOP maintains the senate by 2 seats (52-48), while the house flips to GOP control by 2 votes.
State(s) flipped from 2016: NE-2, Michigan

Abortion: Same as it was prior to 2021; Trump+allies push for abortion bill which is ruled unconstitutional. More states continue to move to limit/ban abortion with varying success. Some GOP leaders have called for Trump to take a "state's rights" approach to abortion and focus on other issues, but he insists it's still a crowd pleaser.

9/1/2021 Update: Trump signs a bill banning abortion past 6 weeks. Pending a legal lawsuit, The Supreme Court ruled the bill constitutional, leading to massive riots/civil unrest.

9/2/2021 Update: The UN has released an investigation into the US on behalf of women's rights. A full report is expected by the end of the year.

"Wokeism"/Social Justice: Likely a lot of rioting/looting following the 2020 election, increase of violence against vocal Trump supporters, much of the urban areas of The US descend into Portland at least for a period, although more suburban/rural areas are noticeably quieter, especially in conservative areas. Millions of people illegally cross into Canada with a Canadian nativism movement on the right starting, while Trudeau offers amnesty. Conservative leaders criticize Trudeau for his double standard, with the Canadian border remaining closed for legal immigration. Antifa & DSA sees a massive increase in membership. The Democratic party sharply divided following Biden's defeat. Talks of some democratic socialists seceding from the party, but at this point it's all talk. CRT ban remains in place; while some districts continue to teach it. A McCarthy style blacklist movement is beginning at this point. So far it is looking like America is no longer a stable democracy, but a place of paranoid division. Pundits on both sides are having field days. Press remains free, despite Trump's threats to suppress. Big tech war continues, although GOP opposition is not as strong as in OTL when Trump was permanently banned from Twitter. Twitter has not permantely banned Trump yet, but he has been temporarily banned multiple times and they have threatened to permanently ban him.

LGBT rights: Continued hostility to transgender rights; much like it was prior to 2021.

Church & state: New movement to bring school prayer back into school. Trump & allies talk about incorporating Christianity into the public sphere. Increase in violence and ostracization against those attending churches, particularly ones known for being against the social justice movement. New age movements are gaining popularity. Stark and increasing divisions between progressive sects of religions against more conservative ones. The burqa is now a fashion statement.

9/13 update: Trump made a speech declaring that God will remove unrighteous politicians. Some commentators have commented that his speech had Fascist undertones with a new conspiracy theory among the left that Trump plans on turning American into a theocracy. The Silver Legion of America becomes trending on Google as a result.

9/2 update: Churches, particularly conservative ones are being targeted by looters following the passage of the "heartbeat bill". Some progressive ministers have tried to distance themselves, claiming that women's rights are human rights.

Healthcare: Status quo. While some Republicans including McConnell reintroduce the idea of repealing Obamacare, McCarthy states that he will not allow a vote on the floor, claiming that they do not have the votes and that it had been previously defeated, despite his personal opposition.

Social Security: Status quo, Some GOP senators mention privatization but nothing is brought to a vote.

9/1/2021 Update: Despite pressure from GOP politicians including McCarthy and McConnell, Trump reluctantly signs legislation that would increase SNAP & Social Security benefits during the pandemic. Despite some party backlash, he stated that "our great disabled and senior voters will starve no more". A few libertarian-leaning representatives blasted the president, claiming he openly signed "socialist legislation and that he broke a major campaign promise, pledging that America would never become a Socialist country".


Education: Status quo prior to 2021, with Trump continuing to tout vouchers. Trump admin. introduces plan to "desocialize schools" including a law that would require schools to teach about the horrors of communism but his proposals are blocked. Trump attempts to file an executive order to withhold federal funding to schools that require masks. Trump's order is blocked within hours and it does not take effect. "Defund the schools" is now a GOP slogan.

9/1/2021 Update: Trump has mandated public schools to teach the "1776 project", agonizing teacher frustration along with protests along with the initial CRT ban, leading to massive teacher strikes, impacting education.

Update 2: Trump's education agenda is significantly impacting education. Teachers have gone on strike with Trump's ban in place. Teachers have been fired for teaching CRT and both parents/teachers are in solidarity. Trump has threatened to fire and appoint any superintendent still protesting effective September 13th, or approximately 1 month after the teacher protests began (although it escalated beginning on September 1st). Trump has threatened to send the national guard, but so far no action has been taken. It appears to be a combination between The Oklahoma teacher protests of 2018 and the air control strike of 1981 tied into one. Democrats has accused the president of white supremacy, white nationalism, and fascism. Striking with local teachers, AOC discusses in a press interview that what Trump is doing to our hardworking teachers is similar to what Hitler did in Germany and called on Trump to resign. Secretary of education Betsy Devos resigned following Trump's threats, leaving Trump & his cabinet in a frantic situation. Several other cabinet members have threatened to resign, but none have as of now. Trump allies are beginning to campaign on ending public funding to education, although Trump stated that "he will continue to pay our hardworking teachers very well. Our students need good, functioning schools as they will become the leaders and workers of tomorrow". However, some advisors close to Trump has stated that behind closed doors he has discussed abolishing the DOE and defunding public schools. Trump claims he's following Reagan's footsteps, but in reality his footsteps are more similar to Oklahoma/Kansas's pre-2018 roadmap which led to historic GOP unpopularity in those states. Despite this, Trumps numbers remain stable. 45% of respondents blame the Dems for the protests, while 52% blame Trump.


Update 3: Trump signs legislation which reinstitued teacher's requiring to teach about the horrors of Communism. Democrats are livid, claiming that it is part of a liberal witch-hunt and have criticized the president for not including the horrors of Fascism. Trump claims that his plans will introduce the beauty of capitalism to the next generation. Democratic leaders declared that they will pass a resolution declaring capitalism to be racist during the 2024 DNC. Outside of some moderate Dems, there seems to be a significant movement towards
Bernie/AOC style Socialism, with some politicians claiming they are "Democratic Marxists". This seems to be a combination of Trump backlash and economic frustration brought on by Covid. Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema stated they will form a caucus to protect liberalism, gaining the support of Republican senator Mitt Romney and about a dozen Democratic members of Congress, although the move is widely criticized within the Democratic party. Barack Obama got booed at a anti-Trump car rally when he stated that he was concerned about the Dem's move to the left, while not criticizing anyone by name. He expressed the desire to work with anti-Trump Republicans to create a more inclusive Democratic party. The combination of loud horns, booing, and chants, led Obama to leave the stage before Rashida Tlaib entered the stage with roaring applause. An MSNBC op-ed compared Barack Obama to George Wallace, made vague inferences that he was racist, that he had more similarities than differences to W. Bush, and stated that his presidency led to 2-terms of Trump and that anti-Trump Reps. are just as evil as Trumpists. Referencing the monologue and rally, Sean Hannity states in a monologue that at least he and the Dems agree that Obama needs to go. Anderson Cooper defended Obama, claiming that most of the party still loves him, although they just want to try something new.

Update 4: As September 13th quickly approaches and Trump threatens to fire 2.9 million educators, he has taken a significant tumble in his approval rating. While 40% of registered voters still approve of him, these protests are starting to dent his popularity, even in deep red states. Around half of Trump's cabinet and counting has resigned following Trump's perceived stubbornness and even top party officials are warning that combined with Covid frustrations, Democrats could exceed 1930 or 1974 numbers if things do not improve over the next year.

9/13 update: Trump reluctantly "caves into" the teachers union and decides not to fire its members. This came after he received a letter from a supporter who was a union member. As a result the strikes ended, but his approval rating will not recover following his decision.

Environment: More environmental deregulation, still out of the Paris Climate Accord. Some GOP fringe members are at the point of discussing the possibility of banning the use of renewable energy.

9/2/2021 Update: Trump has filed an executive order issuing 100% energy independence, leading to a collapse in The Middle Eastern/Asian economies. Trudeau has ordered a suspension of gas between Alaska and the mainland US as a result. Trump attempts to build a pipeline between Alaska and California using Hawaii as a marker, but the UN has ruled that Trump's claim of water violates international law. Trump has called for 10,000 airplanes worth of oil and gas to travel from Alaska to the mainland US. Trump has also stopped exporting oil/gas to countries in The Paris Climate Accord. As a result, Brazil pulls out of the accord and Trump signs a deal between the two countries. Environmentalists accuse Trump of helping Bolsonaro destroy The Amazon as a result of him using up natural resources. Trump has called for the construction of 15,000 additional airplanes to funnel oil and Brazilian natural resources. The economy booms in The US/Brazil as gas/oil prices plummet, but at the cost of the global economy closing in.

Update 2: Trump has signed legislation deregulating environmental/water protections in The Southwestern U.S. following the historic drought. Trump claims that the extensive regulations has caused his sink at his Las Vegas resort to "drip, drip". Environmentalists believe that Trump's actions will lead to water draining faster and 3/4 of the Four Corner states has signed legislation regulating water.


Criminal Justice: Trump sends in the National Guard in cities that he believes are not handling violence properly, including those that have defunded their police department. Unlike OTL, most mayors are not voting to refund the police, because they blame the National Guard for instigating violent attacks against innocent civilians. There's no martial law or curfew currently, but some Republicans want the president to declare it. Defunding the police is gaining popularity, as is prison abolishment among those on the left.

9/1/2021 Update: Tim Scott's bipartisan police reform bill was signed by President Trump, however many Dem leaders including Pelosi and Schumer are concerned the bill doesn't go far enough and that it's a "drop in the bucket".

2A: More laws loosening gun laws signed. Trump calls on blue-state governors to loosen regulations. Some Democratic members of Congress rethink their position on gun control, believing that guns are the only way to protect against Trump's perceived tyranny, although others remain supportive.

9/1/2021 Update: Trump signs a law essentially repealing all 2A restrictions at the federal level. Gun control lobbies are furious. The law is brought to the Supreme Court, who deemed the law Constitutional. As of 9/1, 25/50 states has passed either laws or executive orders with varying amounts of gun control.  

Taxes: Tax cuts remain with no cuts forecasted

Immigration: Immediate outrage as Trump announces plans to significantly decrease legal immigration/visas as one of his first acts in his second term. There is total chaos as refugees flood. Trump has closed the Mexican border indefinitely and continues to send more troops to the border, which he claimed was due to Covid. Liberal pundits fearmonger that Trump will send all those with Hispanic/Latino, as well as non-Christians and trans. people into concentration camps, although that is fake news. Rumors circulate that Trump will never reopen the border, with a leaked report that Trump has discussed banning immigration for ten years to allow for assimilation. Democrats are outraged; and the UN calls for international investigation into human rights, while many conservatives defend the president. Surprisingly, Trump is not doing much against the emigration to Canada, focused more on other issues.

9/2/2021 Update: Conservatives in Canada are criticizing Trudeau for suspending the limit of legal immigrants entering Canada and for a surge in Covid-19 cases as a result.

Trade: More of the same. Trade war continues; much of The Rust Belt/Industrial America remain behind the president in this regard. Some Republicans want Trump to pull America off of the international economy, but nothing has been done yet.

UN & foreign alliances: Trump tries to pull out of NATO (see below). Congress blocks Trump from withdrawing from the UN. Some Republican members of Congress introduce a bill to formally withdraw from the UN, but it fails to become voted on.

Cuba: No war, but increased hostility. Mainstream Democratic leaders (Pelosi, Schumer, Biden) blame Trump's sanctions for the famine/poverty. Trump goes down to Florida, makes some colorful speeches/threats, but in reality does the same thing Biden does in OTL, despite some Republicans calling on Trump to use force. Democrats use the speeches to accuse Trump of instigating The Second Bay of Pigs, with support/sympathy for Communism increasing. Definitely the sense of a second cold war, but with no official action.

Afghanistan: Pullout occurs earlier, around April. Afghanistan falls to The Taliban like in OTL. Terror attacks increase, Trump responds by drones and redeploying troops. Anxiety that we might be entering the second Vietnam/Iraq. Most of the "MAGA" base is defending Trump's actions as self-defense and interparty opposition is minimal, outside of some politicians such as Ron Paul. NATO allies are opposed and Trump threatens to pull out, but is stopped by Congress. Democrats accuse Trump of human rights violations and of incompetence. Several Democratic politicians introduce articles of impeachment, but nothing has been voted on so far. Trump blocks Afghan refugees from coming in; Dems are livid.

9/2/2021 Update: Trump has removed the remaining troops from Afghanistan effective August 31st for the second time, leading to widespread and bipartisan criticism, including from his own VP.

Israel: Relations with Bennett are strong and Trump suddenly ends his relationship with Netanyahu, claiming he doesn't want to associate with a "loser". Ties between our country and there's become stronger with Israel allowing America to have access to their technological advances, which results in healthcare improving . Bennett helps to defend The US against Afghanistan, leading to a tempering of the war/chaos. As a result of the closer ties, there are noticeable increases in anti-sematic attacks and sentiment, particularly in the fringes of both parties.

9/23 update: Despite opposition from progressive Dems and conservative Reps, the house passed legislation which would give 1T to Israel for their defense.

North Korea: Surprisingly quiet.

Russia: Still a stooge for the left. Continued claims that Putin helped to rig the election in Trump's favor.

China: China has gained popularity among Democrats, in sympathy against Trump. Some Republicans calling for war against China, with Trump seeming to be walking on a tightrope between non-interventionalists like himself and hawks.

Iran: No war yet, but tensions remain high. Some hawks want Trump to invade.

India: Modi has pledged to protect the US from Iran & Pakistan and are working with Israel to do so.

Voter ID: Essentially what is going on, on the right is currently is where Dems are. Dems claim strict voter suppression laws lead to a 2nd Trump term and that the election was rigged. Trump's recertification passes both chambers on party lines, except for Romney who votes with The Dems. Inauguration is canceled due to terroristic threats with DC basically a war zone on 1/20, but nobody in Congress or the President's cabinet is injured or killed. After The FBI declines a formal investigation of the election; A semi-bipartisan commission is proposed to look into the 2020 election, although this fails to pass the GOP-controlled Congress. "Lock him up" becomes the newest catchphrase.

9/1/2021 Update: Trump signs a voter ID law, which would implement the strictest voter suppression laws since the VRA was signed. Civil rights, disability rights & human rights leaders protest, but about 5 days after it is signed, the Supreme Court deems it unanimously unconstitutional

Covid: Surprisingly similar to currently, but with Trump's opposition. Trump does sign the moratorium expansion though despite some initial hesitation, mostly because McConnell urges him behind closed doors to let it expire.

9/16/2021 Update: Trump vetoes legislation that would make vaccinations required for federal workers. Liberal pundits slam the move as "anti-science".

Drugs: Reports that Trump is "open" to decriminalizing marijuana but no action is taken.

9/1/2021 Update: Trump signs a bill that legalizes medical marijuana in all 50 states. Dems have introduced a bill that would decriminalize recreational marijuana and pardon all non-violent drug offenders, which Trump has already stated he would "veto". Trump stated he would not pardon prisoners and ex-cons who were using marijuana illegally for medical purposes at the moment, but said that he may have a "surprise" announcement before the end of his term. His GOP allies are split with some libertarian-leaning ones urging the president to sign the bill, while others are urging the president not to.

Stimulus: $2,000 stimuli are passed with bipartisan support. Bipartisan infrastructure bill passes that Trump vetoes and then when both chambers override his veto, he proceeds to take credit for it. 6 trillion dollar spending plan fails to pass. Trump and Democrats attempt but fail to negotiate, but McCarthy and Trump said they are willing to work with Pelosi and Schumer. McConnell refuses to budge.

California: Gavin Newsom has attempted to succeed California from The United States following Trump's rulings on guns, abortion, and immigration. Both The California Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court deemed his order unconstitutional and void. There seems to be a growing nullification movement among progressives, as a result of Trump's actions. Trump uses the crisis to create a vague speech stating that "Dems have always been anti-American traitors and we're the abolitionists".

Recall update: With 94% of the vote submitted, Newsom has won 73-26 against the recall. Trump has a 31% approval rating statewide as of the latest poll who Newsom was able to tie his opponent and the effort to.

Mike Pence: The relationship between Trump and Pence appear to be becoming more icy by the day with Pence offering some soft criticism, although both deny claims of a negative working relationship. Despite the claims and Trump calling on his supporters to support Pence, some of Trump's most loyal supporters has called on Mike Pence to resign.

GOP: There is a growing rift between The Establishment & Trump. Former President George W Bush has publicly called on Congress to invoke the 25th amendment and some former allies are starting to unexpectedly criticize the president.

9/30 update: A small group of senators lead an effort to strip Mitch McConnell of GOP leadership, after the house successfully voted to do the same with Liz Cheney due to disloyalty to Trump. Unlike Cheney, the effort was unsuccessful.

Government Shutdown: Starting at midnight on September 22nd, the government shut down due to a budget disagreement between Congress and Trump. With a poor working relationship despite control of both chambers, American's are strongly divided 40-58 on approving the shutdown. While Republican support is higher at 78%, 50% of Republicans polled approved of keeping the government shut down until leadership is replaced. Hawley and Taylor Greene respectfully were favored as the top alternatives to McCarthy and McConnell after the midterms.

9/30 update: Trump negotiated with McConnell and McCarthy to successfully end the shutdown.

[Chips]

What did the 2020 map look like in your scenario here?

[MATTROSE94]

Seems about right. I am thinking that 2022 is a solid midterm election for the Democrats in the House (where they pick up around 50 seats) and the Senate  (I still have them losing New Hampshire and Nevada, but picking up Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Alaska, and Missouri).

[Make America Grumpy Again]

What did the 2020 map look like in your scenario here?

Same as 2016 plus NE-2 and Michigan for Biden.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Seems about right. I am thinking that 2022 is a solid midterm election for the Democrats in the House (where they pick up around 50 seats) and the Senate  (I still have them losing New Hampshire and Nevada, but picking up Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Alaska, and Missouri).

Interesting, although I disagree with a few of them. I'd say NH is safe Dem unless Sununu runs in this scenario. Trump is underwater and if history repeats itself, he's likely to lose support between now and next November, although he has recovered since his -20 approval ratings in the state during his first term. He's still above water in Wisconsin & North Carolina and tied in Georgia. The later is beneficial for Democrats given the state's recent GOP history, and I agree that Johnson & whoever is going to replace Burr (especialy if it's McCroy) will be the underdog. It'll depend on how Trump's approval rating will be in November 2022, but it seems like it'll likely be low enough to cost them their seats. With Trump's 56% approval rating in Ohio (in between Mississippi & Louisiana), his boost could help whoever is going to be replacing Portman, even if Tim Ryan gets the nomination. Alaska is a tossup, but a Dem could win if a 2020 Georgia OTL scenario occurs where most Trump supporters stay home or vote for the Dem in protest or Murkowski. Missouri is an interesting case but given Grieten's resignation, it could hurt the GOP, although Trump has a higher approval rating in Missouri than Alabama, so it would have to be significant for Grieten's to lose. I also disagree with Iowa, I cannot think of a single Democrat who could beat Grassley, unless some scandal comes out between now and next November, but the Dems. would have a huge advantage in this scenario if Grassley retires. Nevada is an interesting scenario. Although it rejected Trump twice, he has decent approval ratings considering, mainly due to his approval over his immigration stance and support among blue-collar workers around the Vegas area. It remains to be seen what his 2022 approval ratings are, but I can see a case for both scenarios and it would be interesting to see a Dem seat flip in a likely 2006-style Dem-wave scenario. What else is interesting is that if Trump's approval rating is greater than Biden's in this scenario, we could have Cortez lose her seat in this scenario, even if she keeps it under Biden. I don't want to speculate anything unrealistic and I'm taking it day by day as if this is the actual timeline, but a lot can happen in a year.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems relatively accurate, though there's often too much text at once.

I ask myself whether Trump would (have) attmpt(ed) to run for a 3rd term in 2024, just ignoring the constitution.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Yea, there's a lot of text but I'll probably start making new posts, as it's getting full. I don't think Trump would've attempted to run on a third term. Despite having stable approval ratings and a strong base, there are already cracks particularly among moderates/independents and I'm not sure if Trump will have a stable approval rating by 2024. Perhaps Pence might run and depending on the shape of the GOP, either lose in a landslide or pull a Coolidge/H.W. Bush, blaming everything on Trump and then winning due to the state of the economy (which I assume is going to be strong but things could change) among other things.

Seems relatively accurate, though there's often too much text at once.

I ask myself whether Trump would (have) attmpt(ed) to run for a 3rd term in 2024, just ignoring the constitution.

[Telesquare]

Seems relatively accurate, though there's often too much text at once.

I ask myself whether Trump would (have) attmpt(ed) to run for a 3rd term in 2024, just ignoring the constitution.

He would have ran for VP in 2024 with a plan to invoke the 25th amendment on day 1.

[MATTROSE94]

Seems about right. I am thinking that 2022 is a solid midterm election for the Democrats in the House (where they pick up around 50 seats) and the Senate  (I still have them losing New Hampshire and Nevada, but picking up Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Alaska, and Missouri).

Interesting, although I disagree with a few of them. I'd say NH is safe Dem unless Sununu runs in this scenario. Trump is underwater and if history repeats itself, he's likely to lose support between now and next November, although he has recovered since his -20 approval ratings in the state during his first term. He's still above water in Wisconsin & North Carolina and tied in Georgia. The later is beneficial for Democrats given the state's recent GOP history, and I agree that Johnson & whoever is going to replace Burr (especialy if it's McCroy) will be the underdog. It'll depend on how Trump's approval rating will be in November 2022, but it seems like it'll likely be low enough to cost them their seats. With Trump's 56% approval rating in Ohio (in between Mississippi & Louisiana), his boost could help whoever is going to be replacing Portman, even if Tim Ryan gets the nomination. Alaska is a tossup, but a Dem could win if a 2020 Georgia OTL scenario occurs where most Trump supporters stay home or vote for the Dem in protest or Murkowski. Missouri is an interesting case but given Grieten's resignation, it could hurt the GOP, although Trump has a higher approval rating in Missouri than Alabama, so it would have to be significant for Grieten's to lose. I also disagree with Iowa, I cannot think of a single Democrat who could beat Grassley, unless some scandal comes out between now and next November, but the Dems. would have a huge advantage in this scenario if Grassley retires. Nevada is an interesting scenario. Although it rejected Trump twice, he has decent approval ratings considering, mainly due to his approval over his immigration stance and support among blue-collar workers around the Vegas area. It remains to be seen what his 2022 approval ratings are, but I can see a case for both scenarios and it would be interesting to see a Dem seat flip in a likely 2006-style Dem-wave scenario. What else is interesting is that if Trump's approval rating is greater than Biden's in this scenario, we could have Cortez lose her seat in this scenario, even if she keeps it under Biden. I don't want to speculate anything unrealistic and I'm taking it day by day as if this is the actual timeline, but a lot can happen in a year.

In this timeline, I have Donald Trump’s approval rating going up to around 52% in New Hampshire and Nevada, but down into the mid 40s in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio due to his crazy antics and unhinged hissy fits. Despite Donald Trump’s very high approvals in those states in September of 2021, most voters have grown tired of him by October of 2022. I also have Chuck Grassley retiring (and Steve King running to replace him) and Eric Greitens 100% collapsing as a candidate and several more scandals surrounding his brief tenure in office emerging.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Interesting. The 52% in Nevada is possible, but I don't see Trump having a higher approval rating in NH than in OH+IA, although a higher approval rating than GA+NC is plausible. I doubt Steve King would run statewide if he lost in his own district, but anything's possible I suppose.

Seems about right. I am thinking that 2022 is a solid midterm election for the Democrats in the House (where they pick up around 50 seats) and the Senate  (I still have them losing New Hampshire and Nevada, but picking up Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Alaska, and Missouri).

Interesting, although I disagree with a few of them. I'd say NH is safe Dem unless Sununu runs in this scenario. Trump is underwater and if history repeats itself, he's likely to lose support between now and next November, although he has recovered since his -20 approval ratings in the state during his first term. He's still above water in Wisconsin & North Carolina and tied in Georgia. The later is beneficial for Democrats given the state's recent GOP history, and I agree that Johnson & whoever is going to replace Burr (especialy if it's McCroy) will be the underdog. It'll depend on how Trump's approval rating will be in November 2022, but it seems like it'll likely be low enough to cost them their seats. With Trump's 56% approval rating in Ohio (in between Mississippi & Louisiana), his boost could help whoever is going to be replacing Portman, even if Tim Ryan gets the nomination. Alaska is a tossup, but a Dem could win if a 2020 Georgia OTL scenario occurs where most Trump supporters stay home or vote for the Dem in protest or Murkowski. Missouri is an interesting case but given Grieten's resignation, it could hurt the GOP, although Trump has a higher approval rating in Missouri than Alabama, so it would have to be significant for Grieten's to lose. I also disagree with Iowa, I cannot think of a single Democrat who could beat Grassley, unless some scandal comes out between now and next November, but the Dems. would have a huge advantage in this scenario if Grassley retires. Nevada is an interesting scenario. Although it rejected Trump twice, he has decent approval ratings considering, mainly due to his approval over his immigration stance and support among blue-collar workers around the Vegas area. It remains to be seen what his 2022 approval ratings are, but I can see a case for both scenarios and it would be interesting to see a Dem seat flip in a likely 2006-style Dem-wave scenario. What else is interesting is that if Trump's approval rating is greater than Biden's in this scenario, we could have Cortez lose her seat in this scenario, even if she keeps it under Biden. I don't want to speculate anything unrealistic and I'm taking it day by day as if this is the actual timeline, but a lot can happen in a year.

In this timeline, I have Donald Trump’s approval rating going up to around 52% in New Hampshire and Nevada, but down into the mid 40s in Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio due to his crazy antics and unhinged hissy fits. Despite Donald Trump’s very high approvals in those states in September of 2021, most voters have grown tired of him by October of 2022. I also have Chuck Grassley retiring (and Steve King running to replace him) and Eric Greitens 100% collapsing as a candidate and several more scandals surrounding his brief tenure in office emerging.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

I have decided to transfer the state approval rating to a different feature on if the election was held on the day of based off of current approval ratings.  

Election as of 12/20/2021 (38% approval, 59% disapproval); down from 44/54 peak on 1/20.
439 E.V Dem/99 E.V. Trump.

States flipped from previous update: LA, SC
Trump states with underwater approval ratings: UT, KS, NE (At. lg), NE-1, IN

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Starting a new form updated 11/2/21 because the old form ran out:

Abortion:

The UN's commission on human rights found that The US was violating the rights of women following the abortion law Trump signed in September. Following a judge's ruling, the law is revoked despite the constitutionality of The Supreme Court. Trump has announced he will call on The Supreme Court to challenge the judge's ruling, while his efforts are unlikely as John Roberts announced he will not vote in Trump's favor, leading to a probable 5-4 decision against Trump's wishes, while Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have also indicated hesitancy. The GOP has introduced a law in the house abolishing Roe V. Wade as a result of the outcome. 1 Democratic Representative (Henry Cuellar of Texas) and two senators (Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania) have indicated they will join the GOP in favor of the bill, while three Republican senators (Shelley Capito, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski)  announced they will not support the measure. In a press conference, senate majority leader Mitch McConnell announced he will not bring the bill to a vote even it passed the house, because it does not have the votes to pass, while suggesting a more moderate plan that would add some restrictions, but ultimately allow the states to come up with their own decision. Trump went off on McConnell, accusing him of being a Dem asset, a traitor, and an accomplice to infanticide, while Mike Pence stated that he was "disappointed" but offered no further comment. While some conservatives were angry at McConnell, senate intelligence chair Marco Rubio announced he will not hold the process of stripping McConnell of leadership despite Trump and other allies repeated calls, especially since the last attempt failed. The Republican Party of Kentucky indicated that they will censure, but not expel McConnell from the party, despite Trump's request. As a result, Trump called the KRP chair a "RINO" and went off on him.

Update 1 10/11: In a stunning surprise of events, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of keeping the abortion law. Trump slams the "fake news media" for their "false accusations" regarding the law. Protests and riots break out and many liberals are thinking about leaving the state for California and other states, much like how conservatives are leaving California for Texas. A representative from The UN has filed a challenge to The US Supreme Court. A bill has been introduced in The Senate to prevent Trump (exclusively) from choosing an additional Supreme Court justice without approval from all four parties (McConnell, Schumer, Pelosi & McCarthy making a future Supreme Court pick nearly impossible) and has implemented term limits on justices to prevent the partisan erosion of democracy.  Another bill has been introduced to disallow a sitting president to choose a supreme court justice in an election year in protest of both Kavanaugh and Barret's votes.

Update 2 10/11: Senate Democrats have begun an investigation into impeaching Justice Kavanaugh due to his previous sexual allegations. Pence has indicated he will break the tie to vote against Kavanaugh if a vote were to advance. Senators Romney & Collins also indicated they will not vote to impeach Kavanaugh, making the likelihood extremely unlikely that impeachment will occur. Trump has reached out to Manchin who voted for Kavanaugh in 2018, although he has indicated he has not made a decision. McConnell  and Trump both call the investigation a "partisan sham".

Update 3 10/22: The Supreme Court has indicated they will hear arguments about the abortion law, despite the court ruling it constitutional. They indicated they do not have plans to change their mind, but all they need is 1 justice who voted in favor to change their mind, which the opponents of the law are hoping will convince someone to change their mind.

Relationship with McConnell:
Despite McConnell being the one to reintroduce repealing Obamacare, Trump accused McConnell of trying to "score points" with Pelosi & Schumer on other issues. Along with other things, there is a GOP civil war between Trump/The Establishment (McConnell with the support of George W. Bush) and many McConnell aligned politicians that are up for re-election have faced primaries from the Trump-aligned wing of the party. Many scholars have compared Trump vs. McConnell to be similar to the Stalwarts vs. Half Breed debate within the early GOP. Some scholars have predicted that the GOP could split inevitably, while others have a more optimistic view. Pence has called for both wings to reconcile in 2022 against The Dems, but neither McConnell or Trump is interested in reconciliation. There are allegations that Trump has threatened to fire Pence, but many pundits are claiming firing Pence would have harsh interparty repercussions, while Trump has denied making those allegations.

Interesting to note that Trump has a better relationship with Manchin in this timeline than Biden does in ours. Manchin has been the sole Democrat to vote on many pieces of Trump's legislation, which means that the filibuster has not needed to be used nearly as many times as if it was a more liberal senator. There are two senators though that are the "thorns" that Trumpists despise and those senators are Susan Collins and Mitt Romney. They are the Manchin/Sinema of this timeline with similar bipartisan support/criticism.

Mitt Romney:
A group of conservative activists have been stalking and confronting Mitt Romney for several days. After a thorough investigation, several arrests were made in the events that were widely criticized by the media. When asked in a press conference what Trump thought, he stated that Mitt "deserved it for being disloyal". Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell was asked about the incident in a separate press conference, in which he replied that he would vote to impeach Trump if he were to be impeached again. Several conservative outlets including OANN praised the activists, and has encouraged others to do the same. Rand Paul in resposne to McConnell's response, stated that he will not allow McConnell to fundraise or campaign on his behalf and has denounced McConnell's actions. The Kentucky GOP also declined McConnell's request to draft a primary challenger against Paul, despite his request to do so.

Economy:
The jobs numbers exceeded economists expectations for several months in a row. The unemployment rate while short of pre-Covid numbers, are approaching 4%. While many celebrate the numbers, liberals claim that the real employment numbers are closer to Great Depression levels because of people working multiple jobs and part-time/gig employment. Despite positive numbers, inflation and shortages are concerns, due to the pandemic. Trump has mentioned he's opening to replacing Powell, with some Republican's claiming he's too "liberal" and that his policies are leading to problems.

11/2 Update:
Economy: Following a worsening economy, Trump goes against the advice of his economic advisors and signs a bill that would raise tariffs on imports in order to promote American-made products. The Hawley Tariff Act of 2021 was signed by Trump on Monday November 1st and has faced bipartisan criticism, particularly from the farming and business communities. Economists are generally divided on if the act will hurt the economy overall with some economists suggesting that it could strengthen the economy when the recession ends. While some Republicans have renewed calls for total autarky and self-sustainability, Trump insists he will let the free market run its course. Democrats blame Trump's tariffs for the worsening economy.

Democrats:
On October 13th, a memo was sent out suggesting Democrats not vote in 2022/2024 until "Trump's corruption is appropriately addressed". Trump in a press conference accused Democrats of wanting to sabotage Democracy and abolish the government.

Covid-19 (as of October 2021):
Generally back to a "new normal". The US/Canada border is back open, most states dropped their mask mandate, although some businesses and local governments still have ordinances. People are still generally divided at this point, although less than OTL. Unlike IOTL, the worst of The Delta variant was averted although some places still have regional outbreaks, but there's no  talk of vaccine passports or mandates. Businesses are struggling to hire much like OTL and some shortages are becoming apparent. Trump sues California for implementing a vaccine mandate for state workers and the court ruled in favor of Trump, leading to criticism by The Left after hundreds of workers were fired for refusing the vaccine. There are talks to reopen The Mexican border in time for Thanksgiving with many on The Left claiming that the only reason the border is closed is because of xenophobia.

Marijuana (10/22 update): Trump announced he'd be criminalizing Delta-8 at the federal level. "We have a lot of bad things going on, strong drugs that are destroying our next generation, our bright generation. We don't want to send a message that drugs are good or acceptable and we will make sure our kids are taken care of". Trump's speech is a blow to the war on drugs and many of his supporters are angry. On the other side, The Christian Right is thrilled. Those on the Christian Right call for Trump to override state's legalization on marijuana but Trump denies to do so, although he stated he would veto any legislation legalizing or decriminalizing marijuana federally, reversing earlier rumors.

11/17 Update: (11/17):
Republican lawmakers have worked on a bill to decriminalize marijuana. Trump said he would veto the measure, leading to speculation that he's quietly restarting the war on drugs.

[Make America Grumpy Again]

2021 Midterm results:

New Jersey gubernatorial:

Incument Phil Murphy wins an easy re-election with 65% of the vote compared to Ciatterelli's 33%. President Trump only had a 31% approval rating in the Garden state at the time of the election.

Virginia gubernatorial:
In a major blow to Trump, former governor and DNC chair Terry McAuliffe won a second non-consecutive term to become governor. McAuliffe won 56% of the vote compared to Youngkin's 42% in a state where Trump only had a 37% approval rating at the time of the election.

Despite the major losses, senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said he will not be changing his strategy in terms of the 2021 losses. "We're talking about deep blue states, states that were expected to go to the Democrats. Our policies are benefitting working people across America and the fact that both gubernatorial candidates outperformed Trump shows that our policies are more popular than the president himself." McConnell said depsite liberal criticism that Trump himself was responsible for the gubernatorial defeats.