2020: Trump Vs. Clinton Rematch
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  2020: Trump Vs. Clinton Rematch
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Author Topic: 2020: Trump Vs. Clinton Rematch  (Read 392 times)
Vice President Christian Man
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Junior Chimp
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« on: August 27, 2021, 10:33:45 PM »
« edited: August 31, 2021, 12:34:06 AM by Soc. Dem Paleocon »

Could this have been a successful map if Hillary Clinton rematched against Trump?

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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2021, 04:50:05 AM »

Potentially yes. I also think she could have even won Georgia; her performance there was impressive in 2016 and set the stage for Biden in 2020. I don't think he won it because he had some special advantage over Hillary there; the trends could have put her over the line too.

I wouldn't dismiss her winning PA or even WI (though less likely) either. All depends on exactly how it goes down. Could be a map like this or could be a worse map for her than 2016.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2021, 06:17:32 AM »

That's a very possible map.  Although I think we get the hellworld 269-269 map in that scenario: Trump holds on to AZ and GA by under 20K votes, wins WI by like 5000 votes, and Clinton carries PA and MI by .5 and 1.0 points each.

As far as Clinton winning Georgia, Biden probably has the edge in flipping the state here (which was only by 10K votes as well).  I think Clinton spends more time in WI/MI/PA (for obvious reasons), Arizona and possibly even ME/NH as well given how close they were in 16.
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Chips
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2021, 02:57:15 PM »

Best case for Clinton:



Worst case for Clinton:



What I think would've actually happened:

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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2021, 02:00:31 AM »

That's a very possible map.  Although I think we get the hellworld 269-269 map in that scenario: Trump holds on to AZ and GA by under 20K votes, wins WI by like 5000 votes, and Clinton carries PA and MI by .5 and 1.0 points each.

As far as Clinton winning Georgia, Biden probably has the edge in flipping the state here (which was only by 10K votes as well).  I think Clinton spends more time in WI/MI/PA (for obvious reasons), Arizona and possibly even ME/NH as well given how close they were in 16.

But consider that Biden didn't actually win a single county in Georgia that Hillary didn't win, and even lost one she won: Burke County. And he didn't give the state a ton of attention either (except briefly towards the home stretch). Hillary was actually the one who, without even trying really, flipped a bunch of GA counties blue that hadn't voted D since Jimmy Carter, and really accelerated the trends in suburban Atlanta. It's not too hard to imagine her doing just as well as Biden or better in a rematch. The Stacey Abrams machine would presumably still be there, for one thing. And if her campaign had any sense at all (and hopefully it would have learned from the failure of 2016), it probably would have seen the state as one trending their way and invested at least a little in it. Maybe this time Hillary ignores Robby Mook, listens to people like her husband and James Carville, and runs a campaign that aims to not only win back what she lost but continue to improve upon where she already improved. And GA was one of her few relatively bright spots in 2016.
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