New PEW poll finds Bush +2 head to head, up 4% with Nader

[The Vorlon]

http://people-press.org/reports/print.php3?PageID=845

PEW, while very very consistent, is typically a somewhat unfriendly to the GOP polling organization.  They are, however, intelectually honest about their work.

Sample size of 1,806 of whom 1426 were registered voters.  Results quoted are of Registered voters.

Head to Head:

Bush 48
Kerry 46

In the Pew poll 1 month ago, Bush trailed by 5%, this thus represents a 7% improvement.

3 Way Race

Bush 46
Kerry 42
Nader 6%

Job approval inproves from -4 (44/48) to +5 (48/43) a change of 9%

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=216

This poll notes a fairly large "reagan" effect.  This was a registered voters poll.

It will be interesting to see if "likely" voter polls reflect the same changes.

Sample looks like it is a tad GOP heavy (Reagan effect?) but certainly "in the game" (Quick math in head say +2 to GOP side)

One more poll...

[CARLHAYDEN]

This confirms just what I have been saying.

The internals are particulary interesting.

Most Kerry voters are simply anti-Bush.

Aside from the War in Iraq, the Kerry voters are extremely vague about their rationale about supporting Kerry.

Since the Democrat primaries ended, things have started improving for Bush.

I found it particularly interesting that most believe Bush will be reelected.

Also, Kerry's problems with Consistency and his related problem of personality/attitude/communications problem bodes bad for his campaign.

It seems to me that what we really have is voters who favor John Wayne on one side, and Woody Allen on the other.

Wish more polls had as many internals listed.

[Lunar]

What are the "for" and "against" numbers for previous elections with an incumbant?

[The Vorlon]

This confirms just what I have been saying.

The internals are particulary interesting.

Most Kerry voters are simply anti-Bush.

Aside from the War in Iraq, the Kerry voters are extremely vague about their rationale about supporting Kerry.

Since the Democrat primaries ended, things have started improving for Bush.

I found it particularly interesting that most believe Bush will be reelected.

Also, Kerry's problems with Consistency and his related problem of personality/attitude/communications problem bodes bad for his campaign.

It seems to me that what we really have is voters who favor John Wayne on one side, and Woody Allen on the other.

Wish more polls had as many internals listed.

PEW has a few "kinks" in the way they do their sampling that tends to shift things a small tad to the Dem side, but they are at least very consistent and intelectually honest.

I always archive the PEWS, the absolute number might be off a tad, but you can trust the trends.

[CARLHAYDEN]

PS - thanks for the posting.

What we seem to have to date is too many polls without the internals and without the wording of the questions.

While I agree that PEW tends to have overall a small Democrat skew, I thought the internals were devastating for Kerry.

[lolitsadam]

No way is Nader getting 6%.

Plus, what's the margin of error?

[The Vorlon]

No way is Nader getting 6%.

Plus, what's the margin of error?

Registered voters => high Nader

Sample size = 1426

+/- 1.3% 68/100
+/- 2.6% 95/100

[© tweed]

Bush is getting a bounce from Reagan.  I'm really happy this didn't happen in October, because this won't even be a factor a month from now.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry Tweed, but I can just tell you what will be happening in late October, Early November.

At Republican rallies around the nation, friends of Reagan will be urging Republicans to go the extra mile to reelect Bush, and "Win one for the Gipper."

When reminded in this pithy way of how Bush is continuing the Regan revolution which Kerry opposed and opposes, you can bet they will make the extra effort to reelect Bush.

[??????????]

Vorlon. Don't you think its time to move Florida into dark blue territory?

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon. Don't you think its time to move Florida into dark blue territory?

Bush is running about 3.5% better if Florida than he is nationally, Bush needs to get to about +3 Nationally for Florida to go "Dark" blue.

The shade of blue I have now is a very nice one