Reagan boost?

[millwx]

New Pew Research poll shows Bush up 4% in a three way race... 46% to 42% to 6%... and up 2% head to head... 48% to 46%.  While it is not overwhelmingly so, it is just about the strongest performance by Bush in a national poll in about a month (a couple other polls are quite close).  Interestingly, this poll is the only one I've seen whose timeframe overwhelming covers the "week of remembrance" for Reagan... the poll was conducted June 3rd through 13th.

The recent TIPP poll was close to the same dates, but missed the first couple of days following Reagan's death.  It showed Bush up 3% in a three way race and up 1% head-to-head.

Of other recent polls... Fox/OD was closer (tied with Nader in, Kerry up head-to-head), AP/IPSOS was closer (Bush up 1% in a three way race), Gallup had Kerry up, Zogby had Kerry up slightly, ARG had Kerry up slightly, Quinnipiac had it essentially tied, ABC/WP had a tie or Kerry up, CBS had Kerry up, Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner had Kerry up.  ALL of these were conducted within a few weeks prior to the death of Reagan except for Fox/OD and AP/IPSOS which were right at the front end of that week... interesting that they sit between the more Kerry-friendly polls pre-Reagan-death and the Pew and TIPP polls conducted largely during the "week of remembrance".

Seems clear to me, morbid as it might be, that Bush has launched upwards a few points on Reagan's death.  And, obviously, this'll be reflected in some of the state polls as well.  So, it's a pretty big deal.  The question is... Will it last or will it fade?

[The Vorlon]

I thinnk Muon2 hit it on the head.

I don't think the Reagan funeral changed any minds, but it broke the news cycle.

I bought Bush 10 days of "space" to let the media frenzy cool off, and let the American people reflect.

[millwx]

I bought Bush 10 days of "space" to let the media frenzy cool off, and let the American people reflect.

I'm not sure why that would help Bush (I understand the argument, I just can't see people shifting over that... of course, we're only talking about 2-4% of the people shifting).  But, I have no good answer myself, so you may well be right.  No matter, he's clearly gotten a boost.  Will it hold?  I suspect not, since the news has already turned on Bush again... bombing of the Iraqi pipelines, car bomb killing 35 in Iraq, 9/11 commission declaring no definitive Al Qaeda-Iraq link, etc.  I'm not saying it's being reported fairly (good economic news continues to get "below the fold" billing), I'm just saying that what's being reported is generally negative.

[Beet]

Regarding good economic news, public opinions about the economy are very much a lagging indicator... and tend to lag especially when jobs do. In late 1983 the economy was in a huge expansion but Mondale managed to tie Reagan in the polls due to the lagging job market. Same thing in 1992, although the expansion was not so huge then, it had nevertheless run a year and a half between March of '91 and November '92. And most people polled in 1995 would probably still have said the economy was bad.

[The Vorlon]

Regarding good economic news, public opinions about the economy are very much a lagging indicator... and tend to lag especially when jobs do. In late 1983 the economy was in a huge expansion but Mondale managed to tie Reagan in the polls due to the lagging job market. Same thing in 1992, although the expansion was not so huge then, it had nevertheless run a year and a half between March of '91 and November '92. And most people polled in 1995 would probably still have said the economy was bad.

They say that jobs is a "lagging indicator" and that people's perceptions of jobs lags behind the lag...

The last IPSOS poll says that more than half of folks thought the economy was still losing lobs...

By the time most folks think the economy is "good" it is starting to turn "bad" again

I guess my point on Reagan's funeral is kinda like the joke about the guy who bangs his head against a wall for hours at a time and when asked why says "Because it feels so good when it stops"..

The "Reagan pause" I think was kinda like that for Bush.  He was getting shelled in the media, the shelling stopped for a few days..

Not a huge change, but as the guy said "if feels so good when it stops"

I am VERY curious what the next Gallup poll will say.  Structurally, because of the way Gallup does things (primarily their "likely" voter screens) that poll when you are still 4 1/2 months out from the actual election is prone to very large swings, as voter energy levels change during the campaign.  It is possible that Gallup could show a HUGE swing to Bush.  

This far our, it would not mean anything, other than the media coverage effects, but it will still be interesting...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Regarding good economic news, public opinions about the economy are very much a lagging indicator... and tend to lag especially when jobs do. In late 1983 the economy was in a huge expansion but Mondale managed to tie Reagan in the polls due to the lagging job market. Same thing in 1992, although the expansion was not so huge then, it had nevertheless run a year and a half between March of '91 and November '92. And most people polled in 1995 would probably still have said the economy was bad.

You are exactly correct.

A couple more months of good economic news and Kerry is toast.

[muon2]

Regarding good economic news, public opinions about the economy are very much a lagging indicator... and tend to lag especially when jobs do. In late 1983 the economy was in a huge expansion but Mondale managed to tie Reagan in the polls due to the lagging job market. Same thing in 1992, although the expansion was not so huge then, it had nevertheless run a year and a half between March of '91 and November '92. And most people polled in 1995 would probably still have said the economy was bad.

The most typical trend is to look at the economic facts from the 1st and 2nd quarter and project that onto attitudes in Nov. In 1992 the best numbers began to show up in the 3rd quarter and were too late to register with public opinion. In 1984 the economy (though still in worse shape than today) had been clearly picking up from late 1983 into early 1984 and by Nov. registered with the voters to give Reagan a landslide.