Why do Democrats tend to be more bullish on NC than FL?

[Roll Roons]

On here, Democrats love dooming about how Florida is supposedly completely gone and should be put in the same category as Arkansas or Idaho. But I don't see any of that sentiment towards North Carolina, which is seen as by far the most likely R-D flip in 2024. This is in spite of the fact that in the past 20 years, Democrats have only won a presidential or Senate race there in 2008, which was a massive blue wave.

Why are they perceived so differently despite both being equally frustrating for Democrats in recent years?

[TDAS04]

Well, last cycle saw NC swing left and vote to the left of FL, and FL swung right.  Also, the close misses in Florida have been closer and more numerous.  And NC doesn’t arouse negative feelings among Democrats for f-ing up the 2000 presidential election.  NC did unexpectedly back Obama in 2008, after not really being competitive.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats have been able to win more statewide elections more recently in NC (e.g. Cooper's 2 terms and the state supreme court majority). 

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NC’s trends are politically ambiguous. Florida’s population growth is driven largely by boomer retirees, not exactly the most Democratic demographic.

[THG]

NC’s trends are politically ambiguous. Florida’s population growth is driven largely by boomer retirees, not exactly the most Democratic demographic.

As well as red trending Hispanics (especially Cubans and Venezuelans).

[Girlytree]

I honestly don’t see the Dems winning a US senate seat from North Carolina for a long time. I don’t see any chance of the Burr seat flipping in 2022, and if a Democrat still holds the White House in 2026 Tillis will hold on. At that point, after 8 years of a Democratic President, I can’t see the state flipping in 2028.

[Tekken_Guy]

NC has a Democratic governor, FL does not. FL tossed out a D incumbent Senator in a Blue wave year, NC tossed out a D in a red year.

[Aspi]

The FL Democratic Party is widely viewed as being disfunctional, and Broward County continues to engage in poor ballot design. 

[RRusso1982]

I really think North Carolina going for Obama in 2008 was a fluke.  A perfect storm scenario happened.  Record African American turnout for Obama and the financial crisis hit especially hard in the Charlotte area, which is the big banking center.  It really wasn't a tipping point state.  It just kind of went along for the ride.  Obama won the national popular vote by nearly 7 points.  He won North Carolina by less than half a point.  Remember, Obama didn't even seriously contest North Carolina until after the financial crisis hit and he really moved ahead of McCain.

[Non Swing Voter]

I really think North Carolina going for Obama in 2008 was a fluke.  A perfect storm scenario happened.  Record African American turnout for Obama and the financial crisis hit especially hard in the Charlotte area, which is the big banking center.  It really wasn't a tipping point state.  It just kind of went along for the ride.  Obama won the national popular vote by nearly 7 points.  He won North Carolina by less than half a point.  Remember, Obama didn't even seriously contest North Carolina until after the financial crisis hit and he really moved ahead of McCain.

And I believe it was the only state other than Indiana that snapped back immediately.  It has a lot of educated voters around Charlotte and Raleigh but it's just full of Republican zombies.

[CentristRepublican]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

[CentristRepublican]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

[CentristRepublican]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

[Tekken_Guy]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

Well Joe Biden was ahead in most NC polls and he narrowly lost it.

[CentristRepublican]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

Well Joe Biden was ahead in most NC polls and he narrowly lost it.

Well both Cunningham and Biden underperformed polls, but Cunningham's underperformance was much more as a result of his scandal. He was more likely to win than Biden was to carry NC, but he kind of imploded after his scandal, which led to him actually underperforming Biden on election day.

[Tekken_Guy]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

Well Joe Biden was ahead in most NC polls and he narrowly lost it.

Well both Cunningham and Biden underperformed polls, but Cunningham's underperformance was much more as a result of his scandal. He was more likely to win than Biden was to carry NC, but he kind of imploded after his scandal, which led to him actually underperforming Biden on election day.

From what I remember there was no effect on his polling numbers. He was still ahead even after the scandal.

[THG]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

Well Joe Biden was ahead in most NC polls and he narrowly lost it.

Well both Cunningham and Biden underperformed polls, but Cunningham's underperformance was much more as a result of his scandal. He was more likely to win than Biden was to carry NC, but he kind of imploded after his scandal, which led to him actually underperforming Biden on election day.

From what I remember there was no effect on his polling numbers. He was still ahead even after the scandal.

The scandal definitely hurt him but didn’t kill his polling numbers entirely.

[Mr. Smith]

There're no Cubans to react to faux claims of "socialism", and I'm pretty sure the black and the college-educated blocs have a bigger presence there.

[Cashew]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

NC is a southern state so white "undecided" voters breaking overwhelmingly Republican should not be much of a surprise.

[kwabbit]

I really think North Carolina going for Obama in 2008 was a fluke.  A perfect storm scenario happened.  Record African American turnout for Obama and the financial crisis hit especially hard in the Charlotte area, which is the big banking center.  It really wasn't a tipping point state.  It just kind of went along for the ride.  Obama won the national popular vote by nearly 7 points.  He won North Carolina by less than half a point.  Remember, Obama didn't even seriously contest North Carolina until after the financial crisis hit and he really moved ahead of McCain.

And I believe it was the only state other than Indiana that snapped back immediately.  It has a lot of educated voters around Charlotte and Raleigh but it's just full of Republican zombies.

I wouldn’t say NC snapped back in 2012. It only went to Romney by 2 points, and actually trended left. Indiana was a different phenomenon, where it went from like R+17 pvi to R+6 back to R+14 and now higher. It was a total and historic fluke while NC was just a lean R state that went D bc dems won by enough in 2008 and just haven’t since.

[DS0816]

On here, Democrats love dooming about how Florida is supposedly completely gone and should be put in the same category as Arkansas or Idaho. But I don't see any of that sentiment towards North Carolina, which is seen as by far the most likely R-D flip in 2024. This is in spite of the fact that in the past 20 years, Democrats have only won a presidential or Senate race there in 2008, which was a massive blue wave.

Why are they perceived so differently despite both being equally frustrating for Democrats in recent years?

I wrote about this recently.


Links:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=441838.msg8079566#msg8079566

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=449457.msg8114664#msg8114664

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=456272.msg8185071#msg8185071

[Joe Biden 2028]

Plus Kay Hagan only really lost in 2014 because it was a strong year for Republicans on the national level.

Exactly, and Tillis would've lost in 2020 for sure if Cal Cunningham hadn't been engulfed in scnadal shortly before the election.

I don’t see why Tillis would have lost if Biden couldn’t carry the state.

Really??

Tillis was a weak and somewhat unpopular incumbent, and Cunningham was (until his affair came out) a very strong Democratic candidate who emphasized his character. He was doing quite well in polls and the race was probably between Tilt and Lean Democratic before Cunningham's affair was discovered and he gave an awkward, pathetic response to it. (The John Edwards of 2020.)

A lot of raced that were considered Tilt/Lean Democratic in which Democrats consistently led polls ended up falling in Republicans’ favor in 2020. Ask Sara Gideon.

Tillis only lost by 1.8% after his scandal. There's a very high chance he would've won without it. In NC polling actually showed Cunningham with a consistent edge over Tillis. You're underestimating the effect an extramarital affair can have on a senate race. T

Well Joe Biden was ahead in most NC polls and he narrowly lost it.

I suspect with no scandle, Cunningham wins. I suspect that if Cunningham wins, Biden wins