Republican Pres Cand. with Woman V.P. cand?

[Mr. Morden]

Conan, you read my mind.  Just today, I was thinking about the various possibilities for VP for both parties.  I was actually considering starting a thread in which I would make the case that either or both major parties will have a woman on the ticket in '08.  There may be some voters who are resistant to the idea of a woman as president, but my guess is that, at least now, in 2006, there would be essentially no resistance to the idea of a woman as VP.  But a woman as VP could still excite some women voters who like the idea of a woman pres. in the near future.  If there are female voters who are excited about the idea of a woman pres. because of Hillary's candidacy, but Hillary still ends up failing to get the nomination, the Democratic nominee still might pick a woman as his running mate as a sort of "consolation prize".  (That sounds harsher than I'm intending it to be.)  The Republicans might also pick a woman for similar reasons.

Honestly, I think the only reason we've gone more than 20 years without a woman on a presidential ticket is because we haven't had a very deep bench of potential candidates on either side, though that may be changing, at least for the Democrats.  Every VP nominee from either party since 1972 has been a current or former member of Congress, with almost all of them having at least 10 years experience in Washington.  Senators are the most likely to be picked.  The Democrats also tend to pick running mates who are more moderate (or at least, perceived as being more moderate) than the guy at the top of the ticket.  But the majority of the Democratic women in the Senate are a bit left of the average Senate Democrat, or are at least perceived that way.  However, by 2008 at least, both Mary Landrieu and Blanche Lincoln will have served in the Senate for at least 10 years, and both of them are rather moderate.  So I think they will both be near the top of the list of potential running mates if anyone other than Hillary wins the nomination.

On the Republican side....given the current state of the GOP, I find it hard to believe the presidential nominee would pick a running mate who is pro-choice on abortion unless there was a really compelling reason to do so.  It would lead to some serious infighting in the party that could be avoided simply by picking someone else.  This reduces the chances that the Republican VP candidate will be a woman as, correct me if I'm wrong but, I believe all of the GOP women in the Senate are pro-choice except Elizabeth Dole (who is probably too old to run for VP)?

But there might be some GOP women in the House who might be a good choice....I just don't know much about too many of them to give an educated opinion.  What about Heather Wilson (if she survives reelection)?  I know very little about her, but her biography is ideal.


In any case, I will stand by my prediction that one or both parties (more likely the Democrats than the Republicans) will have a woman on their presidential ticket in '08....either in the presidential or vice presidential slot.  You can quote me on that in two years.

[Mr. Morden]

Ferraro is now so long ago that I'm not sure that'll be much of an issue.  Our national political attention span isn't that long.

[Mr. Morden]

Is Jodi Rell pro-choice?  Because I just can't see a pro-choicer being nominated for VP on the GOP ticket unless there's a *really* compelling reason to do it.  Also, as I previously mentioned, governors are almost never picked for VP anymore, though I suppose it could happen if someone with a lot of experience, like McCain, is at the top of the ticket.

Why do you predict that the GOP will have a "rather young ticket"?  Who are you expecting to get the nomination---Huckabee?  Even he isn't really *that* young.  Won't be much younger in '08 than Bush or Gore were in 2000.

[Mr. Morden]

Depends really. If another Governor was at the top of the ticket than it doesn't seem so unlikely that a governor would be picked for VP. Hell, it might even be effective...kind of an "anti-Washington" sort of thing.

Well OK, I suppose it's possible, but there's no precedent for it in recent history.  The last four governors who received their party's presidential nomination chose Dick Cheney, Lloyd Bentsen, George H.W. Bush, and Walter Mondale as their running mates.  All of them had loads of Washington experience.  I guess part of it has to do with whether you think the identity of your running mate would make a huge difference in deciding the election.  If you don't think VPs matter in deciding elections, then you might as well just pick the person who you think would be the best VP, regardless of their electoral clout.  For a governor, this person might well be someone who really knows Washington.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, I was right that the GOP nominee wouldn't pick a pro-choice woman for VP, and I was right that there wouldn't be more than one governor on the ticket.  I just failed to foresee the GOP managing to come up with a pro-life female governor to put on the ticket.  I wasn't paying attention to the Alaska gubernatorial race in 2006, so I didn't know who Sarah Palin was back then.  Don't think I really knew who she was until 2007.