What do you think is the political future of Michigan?

[Xing]

Do you think it will remain a competitive state, trend further right and become Republican-leaning, or going back to being somewhat Democratic-leaning? My guess is that it continues to be a swing state for at least the time being, perhaps voting a bit to the right of the PV, but I’m not sure how it will trend relative to other states.

[TDAS04]

Yeah, it will probably be a battleground state for a while.  I think it might even trend a bit to the right over the next few cycles, and I could see Michigan soon being the tipping-point state.

[Biden his time]

There's a very good chance of it being the tipping-point state in 2024 in my opinion. This is especially true in the case that Sun Belt and Rust Belt regional trends continue.

Here's what a relative map would look like:

Image Link

STATES VOTING TO THE LEFT OF MICHIGAN - 259 EV
STATES VOTING TO THE RIGHT OF MICHIGAN - 264 EV

[S019]

competitive, but probably trends to the right long term as Democratic strength falls in industrial areas and Detroit loses population, it remains competitive overall due to Democratic growth in Oakland County and the Grand Rapids metro.

[THG]

There's a very good chance of it being the tipping-point state in 2024 in my opinion. This is especially true in the case that Sun Belt and Rust Belt regional trends continue.

Here's what a relative map would look like:

Image Link

STATES VOTING TO THE LEFT OF MICHIGAN - 259 EV
STATES VOTING TO THE RIGHT OF MICHIGAN - 264 EV

Arizona is not Georgia, and Nevada has been trending to the right.

I stand by my belief that the tipping point states in 2024 shall be Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Possibly Georgia but it probably votes to the left of all the aforementioned states, even if the Republican manages to win it.

[Person Man]

When Michigan does start voting more Republican than not, it probably gets replaced by North Carolina the way Arizona and Georgia are replacing Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

[progressive85]

There's going to be more swing states in the future.  Eventually it will look a little more like the 1950s and the 1960s, when there were very wild swings from one election to the other.  It's more exciting that way.

The swing states are not getting smaller, believe it or not.  Democrats are shedding some of their so-called "safe" states from the earlier part of the 21st century and so are Republicans.

Virginia has swung probably the most to Team Blue because it was soo Republican for so long.

I think Colorado too has become very socially progressive and that's really pushed it leftward.

Michigan is like Pennsylvania - a swing state if there ever was one, and an industrial state where there's been tremendous hardship in many of the small towns that once thrived on local industries.  The jobs are gone and there is very little left.  The Gilded Age is even spreading out to places like MI and PA, where the suburbs are becoming even more enriched while everyone else is drowning.

Only a full-on populist program from the Democrats (economic left, a la Eugene Debs) can get Michigan back into Blue arms.  Otherwise, it might just teeter on the edge and flip red from time to time.

[David Hume]

It will vote to the right of PA very soon.

[DS0816]

Do you think it will remain a competitive state...

Yes.

Bellwether state.

Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are now the nation’s best bellwether states.

They are the only three states which carried in the last four presidential-election cycles of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—three of which were won by the Democrats—and they’re more than 95-percent likely to once again carry for the winner [winning party] in 2024 (which would make them 5-for-5).

Ohio and Florida—bellwethers no more.

New Mexico and Nevada—bellwethers no more.

In 2016, a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump, the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House was Republican +1.08. Michigan came in at R+1.06.

In 2018, a Democratic pickup for new majority with the U.S. House of Representatives, on the watch of Republican incumbent Donald Trump, the U.S. Popular Vote was Democratic +8.56. Michigan came closest with D+7.68. Combine Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and they averaged +8.51.

In 2020, a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden, who unseated Trump, the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House was Democratic +3.12 and Michigan was the closest pickup state (for U.S. President) with a margin of +1.31.

I would say that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—when it comes to being bellwether states at least for U.S. President—are on a streak.

[Del Tachi]

2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina.  A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles.  I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI

[Sol]

2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina.  A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles.  I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI

^Agreed. When compared to the other betrayer states of 2016, Michigan has a pretty large Democratic base vote (with Detroit and some inner suburbs, Ann Arbor, and the various industrial small city cores) and rural Michigan voters aren't as deeply Republican as Pennsylvania, and were fairly competitive for Democrats pre-2016.

Meanwhile, there's no Republican base as strong as WOW in Michigan, with the closest counterpart in Grand Rapids being both smaller and less Republican.

[Non Swing Voter]

2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina.  A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles.  I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI

This seems accurate except I don't think it will be that far to the left of PA because I think the first sentence also describes Pennsylvania.  No Republican can match what Trump did there and it will probably recede to a 2-3 point Dem state.

[Skill and Chance]

Highly competitive for at least one more presidential election, but eventually it pulls an Ohio 2016.

[Del Tachi]

2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina.  A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles.  I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI

This seems accurate except I don't think it will be that far to the left of PA because I think the first sentence also describes Pennsylvania.  No Republican can match what Trump did there and it will probably recede to a 2-3 point Dem state.

Unlike Michigan, Pennsylvania has trended right in every election cycle since 2004.  Biden's PA margin was less than half of that in MI, and he won PA only with a plurality. 

[Non Swing Voter]

2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina.  A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles.  I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI

This seems accurate except I don't think it will be that far to the left of PA because I think the first sentence also describes Pennsylvania.  No Republican can match what Trump did there and it will probably recede to a 2-3 point Dem state.

Unlike Michigan, Pennsylvania has trended right in every election cycle since 2004.  Biden's PA margin was less than half of that in MI, and he won PA only with a plurality. 

Yes but it largely trended right in 2016 and 2020 because of Trump.  It's not a great state for a run of the mill conservative southern Republican. 

[Scottholes 2.0]

competitive, but probably trends to the right long term as Democratic strength falls in industrial areas and Detroit loses population, it remains competitive overall due to Democratic growth in Oakland County and the Grand Rapids metro.

And Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor).

[Ferguson97]

Battleground in the near future, with a possibly slight Republican lean in 10-15 years.

After that, it will shift to the left HARD as climate refugees move to the Midwest. This is in about 30-40 years.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

2016 Michigan to me seems like the Republicans' version of 2008 North Carolina.  A bare win during a perfect storm, but where the exact demographic coalition needed to win never manages to manifest itself again for another 3-5 cycles.  I suspect it stays healthily to the left of PA and WI

This seems accurate except I don't think it will be that far to the left of PA because I think the first sentence also describes Pennsylvania.  No Republican can match what Trump did there and it will probably recede to a 2-3 point Dem state.

Unlike Michigan, Pennsylvania has trended right in every election cycle since 2004.  Biden's PA margin was less than half of that in MI, and he won PA only with a plurality. 

Yes but it largely trended right in 2016 and 2020 because of Trump.  It's not a great state for a run of the mill conservative southern Republican. 

A non populist Republican like Cruz or DeSantis would lose Michigan by over 5%.

[Sol]

Battleground in the near future, with a possibly slight Republican lean in 10-15 years.

After that, it will shift to the left HARD as climate refugees move to the Midwest. This is in about 30-40 years.

I don't know if it's fair to assume that climate refugees will lean Dem.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Battleground in the near future, with a possibly slight Republican lean in 10-15 years.

After that, it will shift to the left HARD as climate refugees move to the Midwest. This is in about 30-40 years.

I don't know if it's fair to assume that climate refugees will lean Dem.

Well Republicans are saying the reason they had to leave isn't real.

[Ferguson97]

Battleground in the near future, with a possibly slight Republican lean in 10-15 years.

After that, it will shift to the left HARD as climate refugees move to the Midwest. This is in about 30-40 years.

I don't know if it's fair to assume that climate refugees will lean Dem.

I don't mean just foreign refugees, I'm talking about people leaving Florida and Arizona.

[BG-NY]

Yes but it largely trended right in 2016 and 2020 because of Trump.  It's not a great state for a run of the mill conservative southern Republican.  

A non populist Republican like Cruz or DeSantis would lose Michigan by over 5%.

I agree with both of you. Other than Trump, which Republicans can contend in MI in a close election? PA is probably also a state specific to Trump, though it is trending R more reliably.

Is it basically Hawley and Tucker? Former can't win the nomination (not enough charisma), latter won't run (prefers his current gig I'm sure) imo.

[THG]

Tilt D kind of a state. It may very well be reverse North Carolina but I honestly don’t know for now.

[S019]

Yes but it largely trended right in 2016 and 2020 because of Trump.  It's not a great state for a run of the mill conservative southern Republican.  

A non populist Republican like Cruz or DeSantis would lose Michigan by over 5%.

I agree with both of you. Other than Trump, which Republicans can contend in MI in a close election? PA is probably also a state specific to Trump, though it is trending R more reliably.

Is it basically Hawley and Tucker? Former can't win the nomination (not enough charisma), latter won't run (prefers his current gig I'm sure) imo.

Most Republicans can, people forget that Michigan, along with the rest of the Rust Belt was a close state before Obama came along. This "only Trump can win Michigan" analysis is lazy analysis on tier with "Hillary Clinton was uniquely weak in the Midwest, and Biden will bring back Obama numbers."

[BG-NY]

Most Republicans can, people forget that Michigan, along with the rest of the Rust Belt was a close state before Obama came along. This "only Trump can win Michigan" analysis is lazy analysis on tier with "Hillary Clinton was uniquely weak in the Midwest, and Biden will bring back Obama numbers."

It's not lazy at all. The point being Trump accelerated trends in MI, just like Obama did in NC.