Depolarization

[หมูเด้ง]

When does depolarization happen, how much depolarization happens, who ultimately benefits from it, and how do the "losers" adapt?

[THG]

I would say depolarization occurs in the mid 2020’s to the early 2030’s.

[Non Swing Voter]

Probably when Republicans stop trying to steal elections and accept that they are the minority viewpoint on most issues.

[CadetCashBoi]

I think it's already beginning to happen, it's just barely perceptible and we won't start to notice until 2022 or 24.

[หมูเด้ง]

What does a "New" Democrat or Republican look like? What are the issues that will be dropped by one party to allow depolarization to begin?

 If Democrats start running away with things, it's probably going to be because the entire neoliberal thing has been played out and that Republicans will "make peace" with things like National Healthcare and somewhat higher taxes, but will instead completely focus on bringing Public Order over Civil Rights, National Identity over Cultural or even Technological Progress,  and/or National Security over Global Stability. Basically that W and Trump were simply different sides of the same coin and that eventually we get someone like Hawley being the answer to the new Democratic consensus, after running several traditionally conservative or even somewhat Trumpy candidates with diminishing returns downballot.

 On the other hand, if Biden turns out to be a failed President, I could see even Trump himself, DeSantis, or someone like Cotton or Cruz getting elected by perhaps the biggest Republican margins since almost Reagan himself and that Democrats might not win a majority of the Governorships or a single house of Congress again this decade. At that point,  instead of "moderate" Democrats looking like Macron, they will probably eventually start looking like the Danish center-left led by someone like Ojeda or Gabbard. You would have a situation where Democrats can't win because Civil Rights and Immigration don't mobilize the intended voters. I still think that suburban ex-Republicans will stick with them the same way Ex-Democrats have done with Republicans so I think they will have the slack needed to continue to become more progressive with economic issues. What Clinton 2.0 will be would be is someone who can adapt the party to having far fewer immigrants and can take advantage of the SCOTUS allowing more nationalistic or religious social policy without necessarily co-opting those positions. It will be easier to deal with the border if immigrants don't even want more immigrants and to deal with abortion if you are advocating a small but reasonable window based solely on harm reduction versus a zero tolerance policy instead of having to advocate for no restrictions whatsoever versus reasonable regulation against particularly problematic instances.

[TodayJunior]

Probably whenever Texas flips, the GOP will be forced to adapt if they actually want to be a serious governing organization (doubtful?). By then, Dems will have had an advantage of 4-5% of the NPV right off the bat, and a huge advantage in the electoral college.

Does the GOP get tired of losing is the big question. A lot of them are lazy and perfectly fine with obstructing rather than governing.  

I feel sorry for the regular rank and file Republicans (also applies to progressives) who have good intentions. They consistently get sold out. And that is how/why we got Trump in the first place. The GOP primary voters were willing to try ANYTHING that breathed. You could also say the same thing about Bernie 2016, but they’re not quite the same obviously.

[CEO Mindset]

won't happen as long as big data/internet advertising money remains a thing

outrage culture/culture wars bring eyeballs, clicks and money

[Sir Mohamed]

Probably when Republicans stop trying to steal elections and accept that they are the minority viewpoint on most issues.

So not in our lifetimes.

[Gracile]

I don't really agree with the premise of this thread because the current state of polarization has been occurring in one form or another for decades at this point, and it's not as if the electorate can't find another political issue to polarize around. People tend to underestimate how defensive a large swath of voters are toward their party label/ideology, and with split-ticket voting increasingly in decline, it's more likely that polarization will continue for the foreseeable future than "depolarization" occurring.

[หมูเด้ง]

I don't really agree with the premise of this thread because the current state of polarization has been occurring in one form or another for decades at this point, and it's not as if the electorate can't find another political issue to polarize around. People tend to underestimate how defensive a large swath of voters are toward their party label/ideology, and with split-ticket voting increasingly in decline, it's more likely that polarization will continue for the foreseeable future than "depolarization" occurring.

How much room for more polarization is there?

[EastOfEden]

I believe it's already beginning to happen (there have been hints of this since January, but the big sign right now is that polling results on Afghanistan have not yet been hyperpolarized along party lines. Even if that does eventually happen, it will have happened much more slowly than usual, which is a good sign).

It will take place very slowly and gradually during the 2020s and 2030s. A lot of people won't notice it while it's happening. The parties may begin to appear to be moving apart even while converging. They will probably insist that they are as different as ever, even if they obviously aren't. The "culture wars" will be neither lost nor won - people will just stop caring as much. The only constant in life is change, and the issues that people care about are not exempt from it.

[CEO Mindset]

you could depolarize easily... just make people's lives not at risk of being ruined by grabby institutions

put in a basic income, national healthcare, get rid of the stuff causing asset bubbles/cost disease, get rid of covid garbage, close the borders, gut red tape, limit law/regulation enforcement to law enforcement and even then ONLY budget for street crime enforcement and stick a couple of amendments that basically say corps/governments/various grabby institutions aren't allowed to have Opinions on individuals' behavior/lfiestyle choices

essentially end Americanism as a thing and make it so that "society" isn't able to do witch hunts or reach out and ruin people's lives just for existing one person at a time

[หมูเด้ง]

you could depolarize easily... just make people's lives not at risk of being ruined by grabby institutions

put in a basic income, national healthcare, get rid of the stuff causing asset bubbles/cost disease, get rid of covid garbage, close the borders, gut red tape, limit law/regulation enforcement to law enforcement and even then ONLY budget for street crime enforcement and stick a couple of amendments that basically say corps/governments/various grabby institutions aren't allowed to have Opinions on individuals' behavior/lfiestyle choices

essentially end Americanism as a thing and make it so that "society" isn't able to do witch hunts or reach out and ruin people's lives just for existing one person at a time

That sounds like what I could see the Democratic president win on in 2036 if Biden is a disaster and the next Republican administration gets 3 terms.

[EastwoodS]

After Biden, once people realize the effectiveness of Democratic leadership is nothing like what it was under Clinton and even Obama.

[MT Treasurer]

(De-)Polarization, (in-)elasticity, populism, 'libertarian streak', etc. are all mostly meaningless buzzwords/hollow concepts on which no serious analysis should be grounded.

[หมูเด้ง]

(De-)Polarization, (in-)elasticity, populism, 'libertarian streak', etc. are all mostly meaningless buzzwords/hollow concepts on which no serious analysis should be grounded.

What’s going on instead?

[CEO Mindset]

you could depolarize easily... just make people's lives not at risk of being ruined by grabby institutions

put in a basic income, national healthcare, get rid of the stuff causing asset bubbles/cost disease, get rid of covid garbage, close the borders, gut red tape, limit law/regulation enforcement to law enforcement and even then ONLY budget for street crime enforcement and stick a couple of amendments that basically say corps/governments/various grabby institutions aren't allowed to have Opinions on individuals' behavior/lfiestyle choices

essentially end Americanism as a thing and make it so that "society" isn't able to do witch hunts or reach out and ruin people's lives just for existing one person at a time

That sounds like what I could see the Democratic president win on in 2036 if Biden is a disaster and the next Republican administration gets 3 terms.

won't happen

democrats r the party of the corporate hacks, upper-middle class, idealistic/"progressive"(in both early 20th/21st centuries senses) and nanny state... my proposals are the exact opposite of where dems r trending

[Non Swing Voter]

Probably whenever Texas flips, the GOP will be forced to adapt if they actually want to be a serious governing organization (doubtful?). By then, Dems will have had an advantage of 4-5% of the NPV right off the bat, and a huge advantage in the electoral college.

Does the GOP get tired of losing is the big question. A lot of them are lazy and perfectly fine with obstructing rather than governing.  

I feel sorry for the regular rank and file Republicans (also applies to progressives) who have good intentions. They consistently get sold out. And that is how/why we got Trump in the first place. The GOP primary voters were willing to try ANYTHING that breathed. You could also say the same thing about Bernie 2016, but they’re not quite the same obviously.

They don't seem to care about losing, at least not in terms of popular opinion.  They know most people don't agree with them on actual issues and that they lose the aggregate popular vote consistently in pretty much every national election.  They were a party on life support that Donald Trump shocked a little life into.  Now they are just trying to game the system here and there as much as they can to stay alive (absurd levels of gerrymandering, voter restrictions, etc.) + take advantage of their natural advantage in the senate to obstruct and tilt the courts (filibuster, Merrick Garland holdup, etc.). 

[หมูเด้ง]

you could depolarize easily... just make people's lives not at risk of being ruined by grabby institutions

put in a basic income, national healthcare, get rid of the stuff causing asset bubbles/cost disease, get rid of covid garbage, close the borders, gut red tape, limit law/regulation enforcement to law enforcement and even then ONLY budget for street crime enforcement and stick a couple of amendments that basically say corps/governments/various grabby institutions aren't allowed to have Opinions on individuals' behavior/lfiestyle choices

essentially end Americanism as a thing and make it so that "society" isn't able to do witch hunts or reach out and ruin people's lives just for existing one person at a time

That sounds like what I could see the Democratic president win on in 2036 if Biden is a disaster and the next Republican administration gets 3 terms.

won't happen

democrats r the party of the corporate hacks, upper-middle class, idealistic/"progressive"(in both early 20th/21st centuries senses) and nanny state... my proposals are the exact opposite of where dems r trending

Trump won. Bill Clinton told us about the end of the era of big government. Parties can adapt.