European Union general discussion

[Former President tack50]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

Nice to see that the massive electricity price spike isn't a Spain only thing

Prices here have basically quadrupled compared to last year, and are a whopping 100€/MWh more expensive than any previous peak

[Former President tack50]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

Nice to see that the massive electricity price spike isn't a Spain only thing

Prices here have basically quadrupled compared to last year, and are a whopping 100€/MWh more expensive than any previous peak

It's interesting that here in Portugal, we have the same prices as Spain, because of the Iberian common market, but it's basically a non issue as of now. The media reports it but it falls behind other news.

Huh, I didn't know Portugal had the same prices as us. But yeah here it is one of, if not the biggest story right now.

[Former President tack50]

As for further integration, would be interested in which of countries not in Eurozone end up joining as no one in last 5 years has joined.  Technically only Denmark can stay out indefinitely but doesn't seem like EU is enforcing this. 

For those who have studied economics, most know you cannot have a common monetary policy without a common fiscal policy so any chance of EU moving towards one?  That would mean EU wide taxation (like US and other federations, countries would also levy taxes although at much lower rates than now to offset taxes paid to EU) and EU will borrow instead of member states?  This seems like a good idea economically but I would think it would face a lot of pushback.

Well I am only somewhat qualified to answer these 2 so here it goes.

Regarding further eurozone expansion I am actually quite optimistic on it. There are 2 countries that are actually on track to join the eurozone in the near future: Bulgaria and Croatia. Bulgaria might seem like an odd pick but their currency is already pegged to the euro so it barely makes a difference; while Croatia seems like a more normal candidate. Allegedly Croatia plans to join the euro in 2023 and Bulgaria in 2024 even if ironically euro support in both seems a tiny bit under 50%. I am not sure if they will achieve their targets but unless public opinion radically changes or something, I believe Bulgaria and Croatia will join the eurozone some time in the 2020s

Beyond those 2 Denmark and Sweden are near certain to not join the euro at least not any time soon in my opinion.

As for the 4 remaining Eastern European countries I can't imagine the EU wanting to further integrate Poland or especially Hungary given their current governments; though neither of the 2 seems to want to join the euro anyways (plus in Poland it seems it would require a 2/3 supermajority). Of course it is possible that the governments of these 2 might eventually change but I don't expect them to adopt the euro any time soon either.

That leaves only Romania and the Czech Republic as long-term candidates for euro adoption. In particular Romania seems to be willing to adopt the euro even if it is dragging its feet; but I am confident they will eventually bite the bullet, possibly some time in the late 2020s or early 2030s. The Czech Republic is slightly better but I think public opinion is very much against the euro (even if it'd be the country to benefit the most). I don't think they will adopt the euro any time soon but if they do it won't be in the next decade.

In any case, my guesses for euro adoption would be:
Croatia: 2023-2025
Bulgaria: 2024-2026
Romania: Some time around 2032?
Czech Republic: Very far into the future, if ever
Poland, Hungary, Denmark, Sweden: Never


The 2nd question is actually simpler to answer. There have been attempts at a united fiscal policy since the Great Recession and Greece's debt crisis; but many people see them as attempts by indebted Southern European countries to get their debts paid by rich northern countries and are therefore opposed by the "austerity bloc" (most recently composed of the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark iirc)

Iirc the EU finally bit the bullet and made some common "eurobonds" as part of the covid stimulus package but this seems to be a one-off thing that won't be permanent.

I am quite pessimistic on the EU getting a common fiscal policy any time soon. In any case the mid 2020s will be interesting as southern european countries will have to start paying off the debt

[Former President tack50]

I will note that I have taken a handful of flights in Spain (all on the LPA-MAD route and back) and I was never asked for any sort of covid documents when I landed in Madrid*; although admittedly this was a domestic flight; I am pretty sure the rules for international travelers, even EU travelers, are different.

_{*: I however was always asked for my covid pass whenever I land on the Canary Islands. Pretty sure that you need to be vaccinated or have passed covid recently or have tested negative in the past 48/72 hours to get in. But this seems like a Canary Islands-only policy, probably due to the fact that being islands they can afford to do that.}

[Former President tack50]

How are the EU candidate countries progressing?

Well, from my understanding Montenegro is the only realistic EU candidate for the 2020s. Talks in Montenegro seem to be advancing at a very slow but steady rate. I can't think of any possible issues with Montenegrin accession beyond the talks themselves, so I think Montenegro will make it in by the end of the decade.

Serbia is the only other candidate with chapters open and closed. It's advancing even slower than Montenegro, but not too much slower. In fact I imagine the EU probably wants some sort of joint Serbia+Montenegro accession. However the main issue with Serbia is the fact that it has severe democratic deficits plus as you may expect the issue of Kosovo. I do not expect these issues to be solved any time soon so I don't expect Serbia to join the EU at all.

Beyond that Albania and North Macedonia have just started negotiations but no chapters are open. Still at the current rate they'll eventually make it into the EU and the only issue they have (the North Macedonia naming issue with Greece) is solved. However they won't make it until at least the mid 2030s.

Bosnia is the final European state that is even remotely realistic for accession, but given its issues it almost certainly won't make into the EU until at the very least the mid-late 2040s, if ever.

Kosovo will never make it until it solves its issues with Serbia. Neither will Belarus or Russia.

Ukraine will never be let into the EU for similar reasons as to why it probably won't ever join NATO. However, in a vacuum if Russia ever gets reasonable, it is better than Bosnia as a candidate; I'd put it on the Albania/North Macedonia group

Worth noting a hypothetical independent Scotland or Catalonia could make it into the EU with relative ease but of course I don't expect either of the 2 to happen. Similarly, if Norway, Switzerland or Iceland ever apply to join, it is a guarantee that they will make it in in around 5 years or less; it's just very unlikely that they ever will apply.


Anyways to sum it up:

Montenegro: Late 2020s
Serbia: Early 2030s, but only if it gets the Kosovo issue sorted out
Albania+North Macedonia: Mid-late 2030s
Bosnia: Beyond 2040
Independent Catalonia/Scotland: 5-10 years from independence, assuming Spain does not veto
Norway/Iceland/Switzerland: 5 years from application date