European Union general discussion

[Zinneke]

<awaits invasion of #FBPE brigade>

*cricket noises*

A rather abandoned thread but then this is a testament to the murkiness of EU politics. The EU struggles for relevancy. A good example of why that is is the current machinations going on for top positions in Brussels :

https://www.politico.eu/article/david-sassoli-manfred-weber-presidents-campaigns-european-parliament-epp/

Very few European Union citizens actually know who these people are outside of their home countries. Yet the Webers and Sassolis of this city waddle around with a sense of legitimacy and entitlement to govern when their mandate effectively comes from bargaining at nation-state (Council of EU) level. Witness how Charles Michel fell upwards in the job ladder when his party was punished in his home country, just because he was mates with Macron.

Now granted, the EP has grown some balls since the Lisbon Treaty because constitutionally said Treaty allowed it to do so. On the Afghan migrants issue for example even though there's a clear unwillingness from the member-states to accept a substantial part of the people who helped us there, the EP is starting to stand up to them. On China the EP has also been very strong, they de facto sabotaged the deal the Commission cooked up. And that's just in policy domains the EP technically doesn't have much power in.

The creation of a European demos is absolutely essential if we are to preserve a legitimate EU though and not shed more members. When the UK Brexited Commission officials tried to spin it one way or the other but fundamentally, Brexit is a failure of the very post-modern neo-Kafkean EU as much as it is of the outdated British political class and system. I don't actually think the "Big Lobbies" in Brussels is the issue : the high ranking officials, politicians and big decision makers are, who lack expertise and adaptability especially with the digital revolution. If EU citizens were more engaged there would be fire up their arse enough to have to innovate to survive. But Brussels is too "cushy" for the moment for people like Sassoli who just go to visit the right people and keep their job.

Anyway, in other EU affairs news, after Afghanistan many the "policy window" has opened up again the opportunity of creating a proto-EU Army. Defense ministers gathered in Slovenia to discuss the creation of an EU rapid deployment force of about 10,000 soldiers. Suffice to say the main debate within the Union on such matters is often reduced to Atlanticists vs those critical of tying EU foreign policy to the US and wanting the Gaullist "Third Power" option. But there are other factors at play here that have to do with the defense industries and their lobbying strategies. The Commission has already created a new DG for trying to make the EU procurement of arms more competitive, and it angered the Americans and the French who both are pulling hard in a tug of war between each other to secure contracts the old fashioned, noncompetitive way.

Funnily enough the EU army is actually one of the more popular measures amongst the EU electorate according to Euro-barometer.

 

(support has gone up since 2017)

[Zinneke]

The creation of a European demos is absolutely essential if we are to preserve a legitimate EU though and not shed more members. When the UK Brexited Commission officials tried to spin it one way or the other but fundamentally, Brexit is a failure of the very post-modern neo-Kafkean EU as much as it is of the outdated British political class and system. I don't actually think the "Big Lobbies" in Brussels is the issue : the high ranking officials, politicians and big decision makers are, who lack expertise and adaptability especially with the digital revolution. If EU citizens were more engaged there would be fire up their arse enough to have to innovate to survive. But Brussels is too "cushy" for the moment for people like Sassoli who just go to visit the right people and keep their job.

Totally agreed. Until EU citizens begin to think of themselves as European before French/German/Spanish etc., and see themselves as primarily represented in the European Parliament rather than the Assemblée Nationale/Bundestag etc.

I don't think it is necessary to prioritise one or the other. Instead, it is about really that our identities are multi-faceted, and that our governance model in Europe is multi-level. So for a start politicians should stop running EU elections as if they are either a) a midterm or b) a referendum on whether Europe should exist. For both of those national elections exist, and the EP elections are for electing MEPs that decide on Ordinary Legislative Procedure competences like regulation. I vote Green at European level for example because I trust them for than the other parties on regulatory restrictions for the big corporate groups. I split my ticket at regional and federal (my favoured campaign/candidacy at regional, and protest vote at federal for obvious reasons). A European, national and regional demos (demii?) can all co-exist. It just takes the oh so difficult effort of informing one's self about what level does what.

How you bring this about I really don't know.

First thing to address is that the EU labour market still isn't fluid enough, and the people who benefit from a cross-border advantage as an EU worker tend to be insulated from the 80% of EU workers who have never crossed a border to work. Erasmus is also the kind of initiative that promotes such mobility but it needs to be broadened.

Second is creating a common EU mediatic sphere and debate, which is actually forming thanks to the internet and predominance of English in academic circles on the continent. The French though are really trying to push the French language but I think it's a waste of time even as a Francophone. It can also help stop the negative stereotypes of "the South is poor and indebted, the North is austere and stingy, the East is Racist and the French are arrogant blow hards" rhetoric that gets us nowhere.


Anyway of the subject of such faultlines, the EU budget rules are on the agenda soon and we'll soon see a show down between the monetary and fiscal expansionists vs the Frugal Four and allies.

[Zinneke]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

[Zinneke]

End of the US entry travel ban for widely seen to be a way to soften the EU up as relations turn increasingly sour. Lots of whispers even the EU Atlantacists are coming round to a "why are we being left out" position.

Also, the EU are going to force Apple to use USB-C chargers rather than their own for iPhones. This seems anodine but EU is getting tired of Apple's anti-competitive tactics in order, and increasingly leading a campaign to standardise tech and allow for the right to repair (a massive middle finger to Steve Jobs). The US courts already struck down against the Apple Store monopoly on payments, and the Biden Administration may follow their lead (or just walk through the open door the EU barges open).

[Zinneke]

https://www.realmicentral.com/2021/10/03/google-fights-against-eu-5-billion-in-antitrust-fines/

[Zinneke]

Manfred Weber was re-elected head of the EPP. Doubt he will be Spitzenkandidat for the next EP election though.

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dreynders/status/1473932143906668547

[Zinneke]

Food standards are on the agenda in EU corridors. France is looking alongside Berlin to ensure that all food imports from outside the EU conform to EU standards in a bid to make the EU a regulatory superpower (and also save the French farming industry). This would have been unthinkable due to the EU's commitment to WTO rules and German pushback but with the Greens in the German coalition there is new opportunities.

Meanwhile Italy has teamed up with Spain to try and get rid of the traffic light labelling on our food products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-war-against-french-food-label-starts-to-pay-dividends/

[Zinneke]

The President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli (PD-IT), has surprisingly passed away today. RIP.

He had complications with Legionnaires disease believe it or not. It led to the EP not having hot water for several months.

He was most known in Italy as beloved news anchor too. But here he was also known for trying to bring the EP closer to the regular citizen and fiercely defending its interests within the European institutional constellation. With him passing and Klaus Welle moving on we may see a downsized EP for better or worse.

[Zinneke]

Interesting to note Von Der Leyen is under some pressure because she was on texting terms with the Pfizer CEO negotiating for prices. But the media arent following.

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-police-raid-gulf-lobbying-eu-parliament/

Belgian police searched 16 homes and apprehended four people in and around Brussels on Friday morning, as part of an investigation into lobbying by a Gulf state at the European Parliament.

The searches were carried out as part of a wider investigation into “criminal organization, corruption and money laundering,” and primarily targeted parliamentary assistants, the Belgian federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement.

A former Socialists & Democrats MEP and a high-ranking trade union official were among those detained by police and brought in for questioning.

“For several months, investigators from the Federal Judicial Police suspect a Gulf country of influencing the European Parliament’s (EP) economic and political decisions,” the statement added.

The Gulf state — named as Qatar by Belgian weekly Knack which cited “well-informed sources” — targeted officials “with a significant political and/or strategic position” at the European Parliament, sending them “substantial amounts of money” and “important gifts,” according to the prosecutor’s statement.

Qatar has been the subject of recent controversy as the host of the 2022 World Cup, during which it has been criticized for its regressive policies toward LGBTQ+ rights and migrant workers.

Investigators are looking into whether Qatar has sought to influence positions in the European Parliament in ways that “go beyond classic lobbying,” according to Knack.

The police seized “roughly €600,000 in cash,” cellphones and computer equipment in the raids.

The Qatari government did not have an immediate response to a request for comment when contacted by POLITICO.

The ex-MEP who was found with 600k in cash is in a relationship with the President of the Human Rights Committee, Marie Arena, who is...a Walloon Socialist.

Sadly this is par for the course here. I've met some incredibly dodgy "NGOs" that act as fronts for foreign interests. The rules to allow pretty much anyone in the EP are ludicrous and allow for something like this to happen.

[Zinneke]

The Vice-President of the European Parliament, Eva Kaili, has been questioned linked to the above, apparently caught in the act (with a sack of money). She is a member of the Greek PASOK (lol).

[Zinneke]

I suppose the Serbs are delighted about that as well.

I think they are far more angered by the BiH High Representative, a German no less, participating in the same Ustashe nonsense that resurfaces every world cup while the whole world and especially EU seems to shill for "little cute Croatia" - did German players chant Sieg Heil in 2014 as a joke? Or chant about Treblinka or Dachau? What would the mediatic treatment have been for them if they had?

[Zinneke]

I think Vucic is just inheriting the policy of Yugoslavia i.e play several great powers against each other and reap the benefits rather than potentially isolate yourself.

[Zinneke]

Question...

with enough time for the international-political effects to begin to settle from
-Brexit
-the Trump years
-Putin's attempted annexation of all Ukraine

... what is the current state of the European Union, its vitality/future, it reform efforts, and its politics overall?

I think Brexit has basically killed the idea of disintegration stone dead for a little while, not because of Brexit itself but because of the political decay in Westminster which really save the EU’s bacon (I do not think Brexit is a cause of political decay in Westminster, some here may do and I respect that). It has given a bit of breathing space because now there is a sort of tacit acknowledgement even from seasoned far right eurosceptics like Marine Le Pen that leaving the EU is a step too far, leads to political chaos and reform from within is what is needed.

Trump I think was a pretty negligible phenomenon. Had he actually followed through with his threats it would have had an impact on the EU’s strategic vision but really Trump’s ineffectiveness in delivering his own program meant he was just a managed blowhorn and a minor nuisance to the EU project.

Ukraine has maybe consolidated it as an identity. The use of the European flag is now something associated with the fight for freedom in Ukraine. And I think it exposed the problem with sympathies with Russia from Eurosceptic people.

However, I think if Europe is to survive as a competitive country with the living standards of say, the US, it will have to be more than a daisy-munching blue sky liberal-green power. The lack of Russian gas may kill it as an industrial power in favour of the US.

 Basically the events above was a reaction from the countries who built the benign mercantilism coupled with big multilateral institutions to regulate the chaos a bit. They or their electorates have decided they want aggressive mercantilism and selfish nationalism is the way to survive and unfortunately it is a prisoner’s dilemma : Once the US says America First, the only way to have an optimal outcome is to say Europe First (and of course the issue is that Europe’s constituent members would tend to say “Member-state first, then maybe Europe”).


Overall I am increasingly in agreement : the EU is an anachronistic organisation because its constitutional mandate was made in 1992 and the events you cite (Brexit, Trump, Ukraine) radically changed the international political landscape. The EU does actually have a lot of flexibility for an international organisation largely thanks to the Council where the Member-states meet and create ad hoc rule breaking like during the financial crisis, but the bureaucracy itself still thinks it is living in the 1990s of WTO, WEF liberal atharaxia and favours people who think that way.

So the real danger for the bureaucrats in Brussels is that European people are in general less eurosceptic but more EU-scpetic. They want Europe but think the EU itself is unfit to compete in the modern era. And they think it is undemocratic. Qatarigate for example is a very eurobubble issue but the median european citizen sees it as an indicator that Brussels institutions are in decay and that their idea of Europe is being deformed by a bunch of careerists and parvenues.

I think the future is a very integrated German + satellite economies (inc. Hanseatic league) and then surrounding it Macron’s idea of “European Political Community” with a new treaty that Ukraine would join with some basic standards in order to create a trade zone. 2 speed Europe essentially. But it will be much more bureaucratic and messy.

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-charles-michel-lost-the-room-mette-frederiksen-european-council-migration-economy-french-president-emmanuel-macron-joe-biden-former-belgian-prime-minister/

Glad to see Politico take down this useless nepotistic arrogant self-serving obnoxious cowardly c u n t who is paid a salary higher than Biden's.

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-charles-michel-lost-the-room-mette-frederiksen-european-council-migration-economy-french-president-emmanuel-macron-joe-biden-former-belgian-prime-minister/

Glad to see Politico take down this useless nepotistic arrogant self-serving obnoxious cowardly c u n t who is paid a salary higher than Biden's.

Even without retrospect, he was always a somewhat risky choice for that position.

Risky in what sense?

He was put there (by Macron, Merkel and Rutte) precisely because he is an inoffensive Belgian, so he knows how to square circles with bureaucratic goobledigook and Belgian comprimises that don't actually work.

Risky would have been to put a straight talker like Timmermans as head of the EC instead of the living dead Von Der Leyen. Because Timmermans, for all his faults, can actually communicate like a normal human being and not a Brussels Bubble apparatchik.

As they say in the article the Council President is designed to be a guy who just knows how those mudpits work and does all the prep behind the scenes to ensure they become a smooth process. They thought Michel Jr would be no risk but it turns out Michel Jr just cares about his career.

This epitomizes the mediocrity and short sightedness of a European political class, incapable of displaying anything but a lowest common denominator message of peace and flowers and looking to use politics as an instrument to just build their contact book. If the EU elections deliver another grand coalition it'll be the same tepid water messaging and entitlement from a new set of non-entities, who genuinely believe they should not be able to face scrutiny (see VDL over questions about her whatsapp messages with the Pfizer CEO).

Zelensky has saved their bacon in more ways than one.


tldr : Michel was always the safe choice, and that's why he is an utter failure.

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/police-raid-epp-european-peoples-party-offices-brussels/

[Zinneke]

Macron's comments on Strategic Autonomy confirm to me that he wants a France-dominated Europe and has autocratic designs that are not dissimilar to autocrats that came before him, only adapted to 21st century realities.

He's had years now to construct a democratic Europe, but what he really wants is a France First Europe while he lectured Trump on how nationalism was a Bad Thing. He is also totally out of touch with most of the EU on the issue of American cooperation and security architecture.

He has to be stopped and that may have to be via the disintegration of the current European project in favour of a new one, if only to fire all the arrogant bureaucrats so far up their own arse and ensure we don't have 3 European "Presidents" jet setting around the world litterally fighting over a seat    to take selfies with students and attend orgies.

[Zinneke]

Macron's comments on Strategic Autonomy confirm to me that he wants a France-dominated Europe and has autocratic designs that are not dissimilar to autocrats that came before him, only adapted to 21st century realities.

He's had years now to construct a democratic Europe, but what he really wants is a France First Europe while he lectured Trump on how nationalism was a Bad Thing. He is also totally out of touch with most of the EU on the issue of American cooperation and security architecture.

He has to be stopped and that may have to be via the disintegration of the current European project in favour of a new one, if only to fire all the arrogant bureaucrats so far up their own arse and ensure we don't have 3 European "Presidents" jet setting around the world litterally fighting over a seat    to take selfies with students and attend orgies.

I can't picture Macron taking part in an orgy. On the other hand, I could very much picture, Marine Le Pen taking part in one if she ever gets elected President of France.

I am referring to EU officials- we have 3 EU Presidents who trapse around in private jets and just do photoshoots with no real impetus and deal making ability. National government officials tend to be too engrossed and busy for such matters as orgies, although Trump has a dossier on Macron's sex life so who knows.

[Zinneke]

The main reason for Meloni's stance is that the CIA have had stay behind agents in neo-fascist networks for years so the  "investments" are finally paying off.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/EddyWax/status/1654093883867897859

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/daniel_freund/status/1674022275505438721

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-giorgia-meloni-europe-swings-right-and-reshapes-the-eu/


It looks increasingly inevitable that for the first time we will have an EPP-ECR-ID potential coalition to roll back the climate legislation, social rights, and so on. EPP clearly only care about power so it shouldn't be any issue for them to rub shoulders with such a bunch.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/EPPGroup/status/1676864056412745728