European Union general discussion

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-police-raid-gulf-lobbying-eu-parliament/

Belgian police searched 16 homes and apprehended four people in and around Brussels on Friday morning, as part of an investigation into lobbying by a Gulf state at the European Parliament.

The searches were carried out as part of a wider investigation into “criminal organization, corruption and money laundering,” and primarily targeted parliamentary assistants, the Belgian federal prosecutor’s office said in a statement.

A former Socialists & Democrats MEP and a high-ranking trade union official were among those detained by police and brought in for questioning.

“For several months, investigators from the Federal Judicial Police suspect a Gulf country of influencing the European Parliament’s (EP) economic and political decisions,” the statement added.

The Gulf state — named as Qatar by Belgian weekly Knack which cited “well-informed sources” — targeted officials “with a significant political and/or strategic position” at the European Parliament, sending them “substantial amounts of money” and “important gifts,” according to the prosecutor’s statement.

Qatar has been the subject of recent controversy as the host of the 2022 World Cup, during which it has been criticized for its regressive policies toward LGBTQ+ rights and migrant workers.

Investigators are looking into whether Qatar has sought to influence positions in the European Parliament in ways that “go beyond classic lobbying,” according to Knack.

The police seized “roughly €600,000 in cash,” cellphones and computer equipment in the raids.

The Qatari government did not have an immediate response to a request for comment when contacted by POLITICO.

The ex-MEP who was found with 600k in cash is in a relationship with the President of the Human Rights Committee, Marie Arena, who is...a Walloon Socialist.

Sadly this is par for the course here. I've met some incredibly dodgy "NGOs" that act as fronts for foreign interests. The rules to allow pretty much anyone in the EP are ludicrous and allow for something like this to happen.

[Zinneke]

The Vice-President of the European Parliament, Eva Kaili, has been questioned linked to the above, apparently caught in the act (with a sack of money). She is a member of the Greek PASOK (lol).

[Storr]

Croatia let in to Schengen zone, Bulgaria and Romania made to wait:

That means on January 1, 2023, Croatia will adopt the euro and join Schengen.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/08/croatia-to-join-schengen-zone-but-romania-and-bulgaria-kept-out

[Frodo]

Kosovo submits formal request to join the EU, Serbia angry

[CumbrianLefty]

Aren't they always annoyed about something, though.

[Storr]

Bosnia and Herzegovina became an EU candidate country on 15, December.

The EU now has:

three candidate countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, and Ukraine

four candidates currently negotiating/under accession talks:

Albania              (0 of 33 chapters open, started negotiating in 2022)
Montenegro        (33 of 33 chapters open, 3 closed, started negotiating in 2012)
North Macedonia (0 of 33 chapters open, started negotiating in 2022)
Serbia                (22 of 34 chapters open, 2 closed, started negotiating in 2014)

and Turkey:
Turkey        (16 of 33 chapters open, 1 closed, started negotiating in 2005, officially frozen since 2018)
 
*note* The extra chapter for Serbia is "Other Issues: Relations with Kosovo"


https://twitter.com/EUCouncil/status/1603443279579779072?s=20&t=ZXPC052AOXIc...

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose the Serbs are delighted about that as well.

[Zinneke]

I suppose the Serbs are delighted about that as well.

I think they are far more angered by the BiH High Representative, a German no less, participating in the same Ustashe nonsense that resurfaces every world cup while the whole world and especially EU seems to shill for "little cute Croatia" - did German players chant Sieg Heil in 2014 as a joke? Or chant about Treblinka or Dachau? What would the mediatic treatment have been for them if they had?

[Frodo]

It looks like Serbia's president has decided that it is better for Serbia's long-term interests to join the European Union (and side with the West) than to remain in Russia's orbit:

Serbia, caught between Europe and Russia, could move one step closer to normalizing relations with Kosovo
Russia's traditional ally, Serbia, may move closer to resolving running conflict with Kosovo, which will not sit well with Moscow

[Tintrlvr]

I suppose the Serbs are delighted about that as well.

Seems like not a terrible result for them if Serbia is also an EU member. It's the closest they will ever get to having Republika Srpska join Serbia.

[Storr]

There is a 0% chance this happens, but it's still relevant to this thread. Thus:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1620004999064604672?s=20&t=fGGzQh...

[Antonio the Sixth]

It looks like Serbia's president has decided that it is better for Serbia's long-term interests to join the European Union (and side with the West) than to remain in Russia's orbit:

Serbia, caught between Europe and Russia, could move one step closer to normalizing relations with Kosovo
Russia's traditional ally, Serbia, may move closer to resolving running conflict with Kosovo, which will not sit well with Moscow

Smart move. If Serbia is willing to play ball with the international order and renounce nationalist expansionism, it should be encouraged and given as much economic support as possible. That ought to show some other countries what they are missing out on for the sake of their delusions of grandeur.

[Zinneke]

I think Vucic is just inheriting the policy of Yugoslavia i.e play several great powers against each other and reap the benefits rather than potentially isolate yourself.

[DavidB.]

Vucic just can't live without the EU slush funds for him and his cronies, which have already allowed him to hollow out Serbian democracy. Money is the only thing on his mind. And to him, the only question is whether he would miss out on more money by alienating the EU too much or rather by risking a people's uprising if he gives up Kosovo, leaving him out in the cold.

[Storr]

Note that she didn't mention a time frame:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1621205306398105601?s=20&t=X8pe_M...

Starting accession negotiations would be a big moment, even if it will still take a long for Ukraine to join the bloc:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1621173814825742340?s=20&t=X8pe_M...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Tineke_Strik/status/1625581190102016014?s=20&t=K9mr4VE2L...

[Blue3]

Question...

with enough time for the international-political effects to begin to settle from
-Brexit
-the Trump years
-Putin's attempted annexation of all Ukraine

... what is the current state of the European Union, its vitality/future, it reform efforts, and its politics overall?

[Zinneke]

Question...

with enough time for the international-political effects to begin to settle from
-Brexit
-the Trump years
-Putin's attempted annexation of all Ukraine

... what is the current state of the European Union, its vitality/future, it reform efforts, and its politics overall?

I think Brexit has basically killed the idea of disintegration stone dead for a little while, not because of Brexit itself but because of the political decay in Westminster which really save the EU’s bacon (I do not think Brexit is a cause of political decay in Westminster, some here may do and I respect that). It has given a bit of breathing space because now there is a sort of tacit acknowledgement even from seasoned far right eurosceptics like Marine Le Pen that leaving the EU is a step too far, leads to political chaos and reform from within is what is needed.

Trump I think was a pretty negligible phenomenon. Had he actually followed through with his threats it would have had an impact on the EU’s strategic vision but really Trump’s ineffectiveness in delivering his own program meant he was just a managed blowhorn and a minor nuisance to the EU project.

Ukraine has maybe consolidated it as an identity. The use of the European flag is now something associated with the fight for freedom in Ukraine. And I think it exposed the problem with sympathies with Russia from Eurosceptic people.

However, I think if Europe is to survive as a competitive country with the living standards of say, the US, it will have to be more than a daisy-munching blue sky liberal-green power. The lack of Russian gas may kill it as an industrial power in favour of the US.

 Basically the events above was a reaction from the countries who built the benign mercantilism coupled with big multilateral institutions to regulate the chaos a bit. They or their electorates have decided they want aggressive mercantilism and selfish nationalism is the way to survive and unfortunately it is a prisoner’s dilemma : Once the US says America First, the only way to have an optimal outcome is to say Europe First (and of course the issue is that Europe’s constituent members would tend to say “Member-state first, then maybe Europe”).


Overall I am increasingly in agreement : the EU is an anachronistic organisation because its constitutional mandate was made in 1992 and the events you cite (Brexit, Trump, Ukraine) radically changed the international political landscape. The EU does actually have a lot of flexibility for an international organisation largely thanks to the Council where the Member-states meet and create ad hoc rule breaking like during the financial crisis, but the bureaucracy itself still thinks it is living in the 1990s of WTO, WEF liberal atharaxia and favours people who think that way.

So the real danger for the bureaucrats in Brussels is that European people are in general less eurosceptic but more EU-scpetic. They want Europe but think the EU itself is unfit to compete in the modern era. And they think it is undemocratic. Qatarigate for example is a very eurobubble issue but the median european citizen sees it as an indicator that Brussels institutions are in decay and that their idea of Europe is being deformed by a bunch of careerists and parvenues.

I think the future is a very integrated German + satellite economies (inc. Hanseatic league) and then surrounding it Macron’s idea of “European Political Community” with a new treaty that Ukraine would join with some basic standards in order to create a trade zone. 2 speed Europe essentially. But it will be much more bureaucratic and messy.

[CumbrianLefty]

Any sort of "2 speed" Europe is going to involve the UK (re)joining the second tier, surely.

[Frodo]

It looks like Serbia's president has decided that it is better for Serbia's long-term interests to join the European Union (and side with the West) than to remain in Russia's orbit:

Serbia, caught between Europe and Russia, could move one step closer to normalizing relations with Kosovo
Russia's traditional ally, Serbia, may move closer to resolving running conflict with Kosovo, which will not sit well with Moscow

Putin is well aware of the implications of an agreement, so he is doing everything possible to sabotage it:

Warnings Russia trying to thwart Serbia-Kosovo deal ahead of crucial summit

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JasminMuj/status/1630291201806184448?s=20

https://twitter.com/JasminMuj/status/1630306769049391105?s=20

https://twitter.com/JasminMuj/status/1630308012807319553?s=20

[Storr]

Finally, I date was mentioned by someone. 2029 is still very unrealistic, but at least it's not as nuts as the "wo years" some Ukrainian officials were talking about.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1631286696833589248?s=20

[Frodo]

It looks like the West is slowly but surely winning the war of hearts and minds in Serbia:

West gains advantage as it vies with Russia for influence in Serbia

Russomania slowly fades in Serbia as Putin’s hybrid war continues

[CumbrianLefty]

That is indeed very welcome.

[Zinneke]

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-charles-michel-lost-the-room-mette-frederiksen-european-council-migration-economy-french-president-emmanuel-macron-joe-biden-former-belgian-prime-minister/

Glad to see Politico take down this useless nepotistic arrogant self-serving obnoxious cowardly c u n t who is paid a salary higher than Biden's.