European Union general discussion

[Geoffrey Howe]

I thought it would be useful to have a thread for news and discussion relating to the European Union, since there doesn't seem to be one yet.


The main EU treaties require member states to prosecute cases involving EU funds (misappropriation etc.). There is a federal detection agency, the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), but no federal power to initiate proceedings. This creates some difficulty if member states do not want to prosecute suspects - in Hungary, for example, the courts are largely controlled by those they should be prosecuting... Anyway, this causes some splits in the EU as wealthier nations are reluctant to contribute, fearing the money will simply subsidise fraud.

Recently, a new body, the European Public Prosecutors' Office (EPPO), has been formed and can file charges over criminal misuse of funds as well as customs fraud. It is based in Luxembourg and headed by a woman who used to run Romania's anti-corruption agency. It is overseen by a prosecutor from each participating country who in groups of three will decide whether or not to file charges. The trials will be run by member states' prosecutors but they will be approved by the EPPO.

However, this does not go the whole way. 5 of 27 countries have not signed up to this, notably Hungary and Poland. (Sweden says it will join soon.) The prosecutions will still take place in national courts. But the EPPO's independence will hopefully help: it has already rejected 6 Bulgarian nominees. Finally, prosecutors are not actually allowed to supervise cases involving their own country; and cannot be recalled.

The first cases should be decided by the end of the year. Source.

[CumbrianLefty]

<awaits invasion of #FBPE brigade>

[Zinneke]

<awaits invasion of #FBPE brigade>

*cricket noises*

A rather abandoned thread but then this is a testament to the murkiness of EU politics. The EU struggles for relevancy. A good example of why that is is the current machinations going on for top positions in Brussels :

https://www.politico.eu/article/david-sassoli-manfred-weber-presidents-campaigns-european-parliament-epp/

Very few European Union citizens actually know who these people are outside of their home countries. Yet the Webers and Sassolis of this city waddle around with a sense of legitimacy and entitlement to govern when their mandate effectively comes from bargaining at nation-state (Council of EU) level. Witness how Charles Michel fell upwards in the job ladder when his party was punished in his home country, just because he was mates with Macron.

Now granted, the EP has grown some balls since the Lisbon Treaty because constitutionally said Treaty allowed it to do so. On the Afghan migrants issue for example even though there's a clear unwillingness from the member-states to accept a substantial part of the people who helped us there, the EP is starting to stand up to them. On China the EP has also been very strong, they de facto sabotaged the deal the Commission cooked up. And that's just in policy domains the EP technically doesn't have much power in.

The creation of a European demos is absolutely essential if we are to preserve a legitimate EU though and not shed more members. When the UK Brexited Commission officials tried to spin it one way or the other but fundamentally, Brexit is a failure of the very post-modern neo-Kafkean EU as much as it is of the outdated British political class and system. I don't actually think the "Big Lobbies" in Brussels is the issue : the high ranking officials, politicians and big decision makers are, who lack expertise and adaptability especially with the digital revolution. If EU citizens were more engaged there would be fire up their arse enough to have to innovate to survive. But Brussels is too "cushy" for the moment for people like Sassoli who just go to visit the right people and keep their job.

Anyway, in other EU affairs news, after Afghanistan many the "policy window" has opened up again the opportunity of creating a proto-EU Army. Defense ministers gathered in Slovenia to discuss the creation of an EU rapid deployment force of about 10,000 soldiers. Suffice to say the main debate within the Union on such matters is often reduced to Atlanticists vs those critical of tying EU foreign policy to the US and wanting the Gaullist "Third Power" option. But there are other factors at play here that have to do with the defense industries and their lobbying strategies. The Commission has already created a new DG for trying to make the EU procurement of arms more competitive, and it angered the Americans and the French who both are pulling hard in a tug of war between each other to secure contracts the old fashioned, noncompetitive way.

Funnily enough the EU army is actually one of the more popular measures amongst the EU electorate according to Euro-barometer.

 

(support has gone up since 2017)

[Agonized-Statism]

So has the EU collapsed spectacularly or turned into a federation yet?

Snippity snip

I read in one of the PNAC manifestos that a European army would be an undesirable outcome for the US because it would undermine NATO...but with Brexit, the United States' eye into the EU is gone. Might progress accelerate under the next Trumpian president, or when the next election comes around?

A US-European split, or at least a decoupling, would be one of the more interesting events of the 21st century for sure. But I can't see it unless Russia either collapses or comes under fresh leadership that's willing to collaborate and that the US is willing to collaborate with on interests in the Middle East and against China.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The creation of a European demos is absolutely essential if we are to preserve a legitimate EU though and not shed more members. When the UK Brexited Commission officials tried to spin it one way or the other but fundamentally, Brexit is a failure of the very post-modern neo-Kafkean EU as much as it is of the outdated British political class and system. I don't actually think the "Big Lobbies" in Brussels is the issue : the high ranking officials, politicians and big decision makers are, who lack expertise and adaptability especially with the digital revolution. If EU citizens were more engaged there would be fire up their arse enough to have to innovate to survive. But Brussels is too "cushy" for the moment for people like Sassoli who just go to visit the right people and keep their job.

Totally agreed. Until EU citizens begin to think of themselves as European before French/German/Spanish etc., and see themselves as primarily represented in the European Parliament rather than the Assemblée Nationale/Bundestag etc. the EU will seriously struggle to command legitimacy. How you bring this about I really don't know. But until it is brought about it is difficult to conduct supra-national affairs. The lack of media coverage of EU affairs is a testament to this: how many people can name members of their own Cabinet, let alone the European Commission or MEPs? This is why I am increasingly sceptical of the "European project." On the other hand, people seem to support the concept of Europeans working together for their common interests, as a bulwark against America/Russia/China - see notably the 1975 referendum here.

Of course, it doesn't help when a has-been politician like Giscard (a man I generally admire) says that opposition to the European Constitution is just an "error which ought to be corrected."

[Zinneke]

The creation of a European demos is absolutely essential if we are to preserve a legitimate EU though and not shed more members. When the UK Brexited Commission officials tried to spin it one way or the other but fundamentally, Brexit is a failure of the very post-modern neo-Kafkean EU as much as it is of the outdated British political class and system. I don't actually think the "Big Lobbies" in Brussels is the issue : the high ranking officials, politicians and big decision makers are, who lack expertise and adaptability especially with the digital revolution. If EU citizens were more engaged there would be fire up their arse enough to have to innovate to survive. But Brussels is too "cushy" for the moment for people like Sassoli who just go to visit the right people and keep their job.

Totally agreed. Until EU citizens begin to think of themselves as European before French/German/Spanish etc., and see themselves as primarily represented in the European Parliament rather than the Assemblée Nationale/Bundestag etc.

I don't think it is necessary to prioritise one or the other. Instead, it is about really that our identities are multi-faceted, and that our governance model in Europe is multi-level. So for a start politicians should stop running EU elections as if they are either a) a midterm or b) a referendum on whether Europe should exist. For both of those national elections exist, and the EP elections are for electing MEPs that decide on Ordinary Legislative Procedure competences like regulation. I vote Green at European level for example because I trust them for than the other parties on regulatory restrictions for the big corporate groups. I split my ticket at regional and federal (my favoured campaign/candidacy at regional, and protest vote at federal for obvious reasons). A European, national and regional demos (demii?) can all co-exist. It just takes the oh so difficult effort of informing one's self about what level does what.

How you bring this about I really don't know.

First thing to address is that the EU labour market still isn't fluid enough, and the people who benefit from a cross-border advantage as an EU worker tend to be insulated from the 80% of EU workers who have never crossed a border to work. Erasmus is also the kind of initiative that promotes such mobility but it needs to be broadened.

Second is creating a common EU mediatic sphere and debate, which is actually forming thanks to the internet and predominance of English in academic circles on the continent. The French though are really trying to push the French language but I think it's a waste of time even as a Francophone. It can also help stop the negative stereotypes of "the South is poor and indebted, the North is austere and stingy, the East is Racist and the French are arrogant blow hards" rhetoric that gets us nowhere.


Anyway of the subject of such faultlines, the EU budget rules are on the agenda soon and we'll soon see a show down between the monetary and fiscal expansionists vs the Frugal Four and allies.

[Zinneke]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

[Former President tack50]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

Nice to see that the massive electricity price spike isn't a Spain only thing

Prices here have basically quadrupled compared to last year, and are a whopping 100€/MWh more expensive than any previous peak

[Mike88]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

Nice to see that the massive electricity price spike isn't a Spain only thing

Prices here have basically quadrupled compared to last year, and are a whopping 100€/MWh more expensive than any previous peak

It's interesting that here in Portugal, we have the same prices as Spain, because of the Iberian common market, but it's basically a non issue as of now. The media reports it but it falls behind other news.

[Former President tack50]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

Nice to see that the massive electricity price spike isn't a Spain only thing

Prices here have basically quadrupled compared to last year, and are a whopping 100€/MWh more expensive than any previous peak

It's interesting that here in Portugal, we have the same prices as Spain, because of the Iberian common market, but it's basically a non issue as of now. The media reports it but it falls behind other news.

Huh, I didn't know Portugal had the same prices as us. But yeah here it is one of, if not the biggest story right now.

[Mike88]

https://www.bruegel.org/2021/09/is-europes-gas-and-electricity-price-surge-a-one-off/

There is an EU-wide gas price surge that is harming household buying power and will potentially have bad macroeconomic effects. The article above explains the main reasons, but also the decision to see gas-burning power plants as a saviour for our energy mixes as we phase out of coal was a mistake IMO.

Nice to see that the massive electricity price spike isn't a Spain only thing

Prices here have basically quadrupled compared to last year, and are a whopping 100€/MWh more expensive than any previous peak

It's interesting that here in Portugal, we have the same prices as Spain, because of the Iberian common market, but it's basically a non issue as of now. The media reports it but it falls behind other news.

Huh, I didn't know Portugal had the same prices as us. But yeah here it is one of, if not the biggest story right now.

Yep, the prices are the same. In Spain, I've seen it's the major headline right now. The government even approved a 3% cut in the profits of energy producers, I believe. Here, because the overwhelming majority of consumers are in the free energy market, maybe prices will not go up that much in the next few months, but those that are not, around 900,000 consumers, they will have a 3% increase in their energy bills already in October.

[Zinneke]

End of the US entry travel ban for widely seen to be a way to soften the EU up as relations turn increasingly sour. Lots of whispers even the EU Atlantacists are coming round to a "why are we being left out" position.

Also, the EU are going to force Apple to use USB-C chargers rather than their own for iPhones. This seems anodine but EU is getting tired of Apple's anti-competitive tactics in order, and increasingly leading a campaign to standardise tech and allow for the right to repair (a massive middle finger to Steve Jobs). The US courts already struck down against the Apple Store monopoly on payments, and the Biden Administration may follow their lead (or just walk through the open door the EU barges open).

[Zinneke]

https://www.realmicentral.com/2021/10/03/google-fights-against-eu-5-billion-in-antitrust-fines/

[Zinneke]

Manfred Weber was re-elected head of the EPP. Doubt he will be Spitzenkandidat for the next EP election though.

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dreynders/status/1473932143906668547

[StateBoiler]

Manfred Weber was re-elected head of the EPP. Doubt he will be Spitzenkandidat for the next EP election though.

Think that system is dead.

Anyway, in other EU affairs news, after Afghanistan many the "policy window" has opened up again the opportunity of creating a proto-EU Army. Defense ministers gathered in Slovenia to discuss the creation of an EU rapid deployment force of about 10,000 soldiers. Suffice to say the main debate within the Union on such matters is often reduced to Atlanticists vs those critical of tying EU foreign policy to the US and wanting the Gaullist "Third Power" option. But there are other factors at play here that have to do with the defense industries and their lobbying strategies. The Commission has already created a new DG for trying to make the EU procurement of arms more competitive, and it angered the Americans and the French who both are pulling hard in a tug of war between each other to secure contracts the old fashioned, noncompetitive way.

Funnily enough the EU army is actually one of the more popular measures amongst the EU electorate according to Euro-barometer.

 

(support has gone up since 2017)

In light of Russia-Ukraine I'd love to see those numbers now considering how much more likely a Russian conflict in the Baltics is to occur (both EU and NATO members).

Regardless, an EU army is going to be the sh**ts as long as the Bundeswehr remains at its current disgraceful levels and as a Canadian lifelong officer recently said to me "the only states in NATO that could field a division in a real conflict are the U.S., France, Poland, Turkey, and the UK". 3 of those 5 are not in the EU and per the previous post, the EU are pissed off with Poland, and some people that post on places like this forum say them and the Hungarians should be thrown out for being undemocratic. What does that leave, the French Army to defend the whole of Europe if to not be hypocrites you call in the American warmongers to come in and save the motherf#cking day yeah! That's not something you can fix in even 5 years. Throw in you have items like the Belgian Navy were recently kicked out of a NATO naval exercise due to being ill-prepared/incompetent, which is quite something when you think about it.

Thankfully Western and Central Europe are geographically secure. If they weren't, the region would be the Ottoman Empire circa 1910.

[Frodo]

It looks like the EU has the right approach toward Serbia:

Serbia takes big step forward in EU membership talks
Serbia is taking a significant step toward joining the European Union

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

It looks like the EU has the right approach toward Serbia:

Serbia takes big step forward in EU membership talks
Serbia is taking a significant step toward joining the European Union

Oh god no

[mileslunn]

With COVID-19, I was wondering what situation is on border controls.  I haven't visited EU post COVID-19 (been to UK but not mainland Europe) so are border controls abolished or do they have them in place to control spread of COVID-19 such as checking people are vaccinated (and if not must self-isolate for 10 days) as well as requiring testing to cross.  If COVID-19 doesn't end anytime soon, could this impact free movement?  Yes right to live and work anywhere in EU won't be impacted other than those moving have to self isolate for first 10 days.

As for further integration, would be interested in which of countries not in Eurozone end up joining as no one in last 5 years has joined.  Technically only Denmark can stay out indefinitely but doesn't seem like EU is enforcing this. 

For those who have studied economics, most know you cannot have a common monetary policy without a common fiscal policy so any chance of EU moving towards one?  That would mean EU wide taxation (like US and other federations, countries would also levy taxes although at much lower rates than now to offset taxes paid to EU) and EU will borrow instead of member states?  This seems like a good idea economically but I would think it would face a lot of pushback.

[Frodo]

It looks like the EU has the right approach toward Serbia:

Serbia takes big step forward in EU membership talks
Serbia is taking a significant step toward joining the European Union

Oh god no

What's wrong?

[Former President tack50]

As for further integration, would be interested in which of countries not in Eurozone end up joining as no one in last 5 years has joined.  Technically only Denmark can stay out indefinitely but doesn't seem like EU is enforcing this. 

For those who have studied economics, most know you cannot have a common monetary policy without a common fiscal policy so any chance of EU moving towards one?  That would mean EU wide taxation (like US and other federations, countries would also levy taxes although at much lower rates than now to offset taxes paid to EU) and EU will borrow instead of member states?  This seems like a good idea economically but I would think it would face a lot of pushback.

Well I am only somewhat qualified to answer these 2 so here it goes.

Regarding further eurozone expansion I am actually quite optimistic on it. There are 2 countries that are actually on track to join the eurozone in the near future: Bulgaria and Croatia. Bulgaria might seem like an odd pick but their currency is already pegged to the euro so it barely makes a difference; while Croatia seems like a more normal candidate. Allegedly Croatia plans to join the euro in 2023 and Bulgaria in 2024 even if ironically euro support in both seems a tiny bit under 50%. I am not sure if they will achieve their targets but unless public opinion radically changes or something, I believe Bulgaria and Croatia will join the eurozone some time in the 2020s

Beyond those 2 Denmark and Sweden are near certain to not join the euro at least not any time soon in my opinion.

As for the 4 remaining Eastern European countries I can't imagine the EU wanting to further integrate Poland or especially Hungary given their current governments; though neither of the 2 seems to want to join the euro anyways (plus in Poland it seems it would require a 2/3 supermajority). Of course it is possible that the governments of these 2 might eventually change but I don't expect them to adopt the euro any time soon either.

That leaves only Romania and the Czech Republic as long-term candidates for euro adoption. In particular Romania seems to be willing to adopt the euro even if it is dragging its feet; but I am confident they will eventually bite the bullet, possibly some time in the late 2020s or early 2030s. The Czech Republic is slightly better but I think public opinion is very much against the euro (even if it'd be the country to benefit the most). I don't think they will adopt the euro any time soon but if they do it won't be in the next decade.

In any case, my guesses for euro adoption would be:
Croatia: 2023-2025
Bulgaria: 2024-2026
Romania: Some time around 2032?
Czech Republic: Very far into the future, if ever
Poland, Hungary, Denmark, Sweden: Never


The 2nd question is actually simpler to answer. There have been attempts at a united fiscal policy since the Great Recession and Greece's debt crisis; but many people see them as attempts by indebted Southern European countries to get their debts paid by rich northern countries and are therefore opposed by the "austerity bloc" (most recently composed of the Netherlands, Austria, Sweden and Denmark iirc)

Iirc the EU finally bit the bullet and made some common "eurobonds" as part of the covid stimulus package but this seems to be a one-off thing that won't be permanent.

I am quite pessimistic on the EU getting a common fiscal policy any time soon. In any case the mid 2020s will be interesting as southern european countries will have to start paying off the debt

[Silent Hunter]

With COVID-19, I was wondering what situation is on border controls.  I haven't visited EU post COVID-19 (been to UK but not mainland Europe) so are border controls abolished or do they have them in place to control spread of COVID-19 such as checking people are vaccinated (and if not must self-isolate for 10 days) as well as requiring testing to cross.  If COVID-19 doesn't end anytime soon, could this impact free movement?  Yes right to live and work anywhere in EU won't be impacted other than those moving have to self isolate for first 10 days.

As for further integration, would be interested in which of countries not in Eurozone end up joining as no one in last 5 years has joined.  Technically only Denmark can stay out indefinitely but doesn't seem like EU is enforcing this. 

When I went to Munich back in October, I had to pre-register for entry to Germany and complete some forms for my Eurostar transit of France, Belgium and the Netherlands. A day trip to Salzburg saw some German border offices board my return train at the first stop in that country, but they ignored me, instead briefly talking to someone else before leaving the train.

But that was in October, before Omicron.

https://apply.joinsherpa.com/map Will give you an idea of the restrictions/rules.

 

[hurricanehink]

How are the EU candidate countries progressing?

[beesley]

Thanks for starting the thread - should be useful.

[Middle-aged Europe]

With COVID-19, I was wondering what situation is on border controls.  I haven't visited EU post COVID-19 (been to UK but not mainland Europe) so are border controls abolished or do they have them in place to control spread of COVID-19 such as checking people are vaccinated (and if not must self-isolate for 10 days) as well as requiring testing to cross.  If COVID-19 doesn't end anytime soon, could this impact free movement?  Yes right to live and work anywhere in EU won't be impacted other than those moving have to self isolate for first 10 days.

As for further integration, would be interested in which of countries not in Eurozone end up joining as no one in last 5 years has joined.  Technically only Denmark can stay out indefinitely but doesn't seem like EU is enforcing this. 

When I went to Munich back in October, I had to pre-register for entry to Germany and complete some forms for my Eurostar transit of France, Belgium and the Netherlands. A day trip to Salzburg saw some German border offices board my return train at the first stop in that country, but they ignored me, instead briefly talking to someone else before leaving the train.

But that was in October, before Omicron.

https://apply.joinsherpa.com/map Will give you an idea of the restrictions/rules.

 

In my experience, as long as you're fully vaxxed and you happen to be a citizen of a EU member state you won't have much trouble travelling to another member state. No testing or quarantine is required, unless the respective country has been designated a "virus variant territory" (Germany currently designates no EU member as such with the UK being the only European country to be placed in that category).

In mid-October I went to Paris. My vaccination status was checked by the airline at the Berlin airport. No such check was conducted when arriving in France itself. Museums and other points of interests in Paris are regularly checking your vaccination status upon entering.

Two weeks ago I went to the Canary Islands. Controls were a bit stricter here. You are required to fill out an identification form on the website of the Spanish health ministry. After finishing that form you're receiving a QR code that allows you to enter the country. That code was scanned by an official upon arrival at the airport in Spain. Unlike France, your vaccination status is not checked in museums and other tourist spots.

If you are not vaccinated everything is a lot harder, of course, with mandatory testing and quarantine requirements.