European Union general discussion

[DavidB.]

With COVID-19, I was wondering what situation is on border controls.  I haven't visited EU post COVID-19 (been to UK but not mainland Europe) so are border controls abolished or do they have them in place to control spread of COVID-19 such as checking people are vaccinated (and if not must self-isolate for 10 days) as well as requiring testing to cross.  If COVID-19 doesn't end anytime soon, could this impact free movement?  Yes right to live and work anywhere in EU won't be impacted other than those moving have to self isolate for first 10 days.

I think chances that you are "randomly checked" have increased. But very few countries perform border checks like during the first wave anymore. If you have a QR code you're good to go. If you don't, travelling to other countries by car would still be easy even if you technically break the law (on airplanes this isn't possible because they ask for your international QR); most of the time you wouldn't get caught. But because of the fact that most countries have 2G or 3G as domestic policy, you'd still not be able to book a hotel, eat in a restaurant, go to a theater etc. in your country of choice.

There are a few notable exceptions, though: some countries go further than the EU and have additional testing requirements (Portugal) or exclude certain vaccines (J&J; Austria). In my opinion, the latter is particularly bad practice: many people in the EU didn't get to "choose" their vaccine of preference (Dutch PM Rutte himself, for instance, was born in 1967 and therefore received J&J) and could never have known that countries would be going rogue again or exclude a vaccine promoted as safe everywhere just months before. The EU is a joke if it cannot ensure countries adhere to the same standards.

[Former President tack50]

I will note that I have taken a handful of flights in Spain (all on the LPA-MAD route and back) and I was never asked for any sort of covid documents when I landed in Madrid*; although admittedly this was a domestic flight; I am pretty sure the rules for international travelers, even EU travelers, are different.

_{*: I however was always asked for my covid pass whenever I land on the Canary Islands. Pretty sure that you need to be vaccinated or have passed covid recently or have tested negative in the past 48/72 hours to get in. But this seems like a Canary Islands-only policy, probably due to the fact that being islands they can afford to do that.}

[Former President tack50]

How are the EU candidate countries progressing?

Well, from my understanding Montenegro is the only realistic EU candidate for the 2020s. Talks in Montenegro seem to be advancing at a very slow but steady rate. I can't think of any possible issues with Montenegrin accession beyond the talks themselves, so I think Montenegro will make it in by the end of the decade.

Serbia is the only other candidate with chapters open and closed. It's advancing even slower than Montenegro, but not too much slower. In fact I imagine the EU probably wants some sort of joint Serbia+Montenegro accession. However the main issue with Serbia is the fact that it has severe democratic deficits plus as you may expect the issue of Kosovo. I do not expect these issues to be solved any time soon so I don't expect Serbia to join the EU at all.

Beyond that Albania and North Macedonia have just started negotiations but no chapters are open. Still at the current rate they'll eventually make it into the EU and the only issue they have (the North Macedonia naming issue with Greece) is solved. However they won't make it until at least the mid 2030s.

Bosnia is the final European state that is even remotely realistic for accession, but given its issues it almost certainly won't make into the EU until at the very least the mid-late 2040s, if ever.

Kosovo will never make it until it solves its issues with Serbia. Neither will Belarus or Russia.

Ukraine will never be let into the EU for similar reasons as to why it probably won't ever join NATO. However, in a vacuum if Russia ever gets reasonable, it is better than Bosnia as a candidate; I'd put it on the Albania/North Macedonia group

Worth noting a hypothetical independent Scotland or Catalonia could make it into the EU with relative ease but of course I don't expect either of the 2 to happen. Similarly, if Norway, Switzerland or Iceland ever apply to join, it is a guarantee that they will make it in in around 5 years or less; it's just very unlikely that they ever will apply.


Anyways to sum it up:

Montenegro: Late 2020s
Serbia: Early 2030s, but only if it gets the Kosovo issue sorted out
Albania+North Macedonia: Mid-late 2030s
Bosnia: Beyond 2040
Independent Catalonia/Scotland: 5-10 years from independence, assuming Spain does not veto
Norway/Iceland/Switzerland: 5 years from application date

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/MehreenKhn/status/1477066475529723906?t=2N8rWqm6Y41PsU2Rb-Co...

With the new EU taxonomy out, nuclear power will be labeled as green (until 2045) as well as gas (until 2030 with some more restrictions).

Germany, Austria and Luxembourg are outraged but don't have a majority to reject the proposal as of now.

[mileslunn]

How are the EU candidate countries progressing?

Well, from my understanding Montenegro is the only realistic EU candidate for the 2020s. Talks in Montenegro seem to be advancing at a very slow but steady rate. I can't think of any possible issues with Montenegrin accession beyond the talks themselves, so I think Montenegro will make it in by the end of the decade.

Serbia is the only other candidate with chapters open and closed. It's advancing even slower than Montenegro, but not too much slower. In fact I imagine the EU probably wants some sort of joint Serbia+Montenegro accession. However the main issue with Serbia is the fact that it has severe democratic deficits plus as you may expect the issue of Kosovo. I do not expect these issues to be solved any time soon so I don't expect Serbia to join the EU at all.

Beyond that Albania and North Macedonia have just started negotiations but no chapters are open. Still at the current rate they'll eventually make it into the EU and the only issue they have (the North Macedonia naming issue with Greece) is solved. However they won't make it until at least the mid 2030s.

Bosnia is the final European state that is even remotely realistic for accession, but given its issues it almost certainly won't make into the EU until at the very least the mid-late 2040s, if ever.

Kosovo will never make it until it solves its issues with Serbia. Neither will Belarus or Russia.

Ukraine will never be let into the EU for similar reasons as to why it probably won't ever join NATO. However, in a vacuum if Russia ever gets reasonable, it is better than Bosnia as a candidate; I'd put it on the Albania/North Macedonia group

Worth noting a hypothetical independent Scotland or Catalonia could make it into the EU with relative ease but of course I don't expect either of the 2 to happen. Similarly, if Norway, Switzerland or Iceland ever apply to join, it is a guarantee that they will make it in in around 5 years or less; it's just very unlikely that they ever will apply.


Anyways to sum it up:

Montenegro: Late 2020s
Serbia: Early 2030s, but only if it gets the Kosovo issue sorted out
Albania+North Macedonia: Mid-late 2030s
Bosnia: Beyond 2040
Independent Catalonia/Scotland: 5-10 years from independence, assuming Spain does not veto
Norway/Iceland/Switzerland: 5 years from application date

Scotland would make it.  Also if Northern Ireland votes to join Ireland (Catholics have higher birth rate than Protestants so will eventually be a majority) it automatically becomes an EU member much like East Germany did when re-uniting.  Same with Northern Cyprus, automatically a member if island re-unites.

Catalonia I don't think ever joins as an independent one as for starters Spain won't let it separate and if it were to separate, Spain would veto its entry. 

Turkey: Not likely before 2040.  As long as Erdogan or an authoritarian like figure is in charge won't even be considered and even after that its almost a guarantee at least one country would veto their entry thus not happening anytime soon.

Final one forgotten is the United Kingdom.

I don't think it joins anytime soon even if they want to re-join but I do think with younger Brits mostly being pro-EU it does eventually re-join but probably not until around 2050 or so.  EU likely will require 2/3 majority in favour of re-joining so that know its secure and won't face another Brexit. 

Other is Gibraltar choses to join Spain, but I see this as unlikely since despite Gibraltar voting 96% to remain in EU, I believe very few wish to join Spain even though that would automatically bring them back into the EU. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

As a follow-up to the travel question:

Today, Germany has moved the UK and South Africa from the list of "virus variant territories" to the list of "high-risk territories". This means that health authorities around here basically consider Germany to be a "virus variant territory" itself due to a impending dominance of Omicron - I guess it also means that I could travel to the UK without any testing or quarantine requirements again... YAY.

[Zinneke]

Food standards are on the agenda in EU corridors. France is looking alongside Berlin to ensure that all food imports from outside the EU conform to EU standards in a bid to make the EU a regulatory superpower (and also save the French farming industry). This would have been unthinkable due to the EU's commitment to WTO rules and German pushback but with the Greens in the German coalition there is new opportunities.

Meanwhile Italy has teamed up with Spain to try and get rid of the traffic light labelling on our food products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-war-against-french-food-label-starts-to-pay-dividends/

[StateBoiler]

Kosovo will never make it until it solves its issues with Serbia.

You let Cyprus in without Turkish Cyprus resolved in a bout of geopolitical idiocy. If the EU made resolution of it a condition of EU membership, the Greek side would've approved the 2004 referendum instead of rejecting it 3-to-1.

[thebeloitmoderate]

Belarus: If Lukashenko dies or forced to exit with a more democratically government and leader. The new government will say it is undecided

[Astatine]

The President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli (PD-IT), has surprisingly passed away today. RIP.

[Zinneke]

The President of the European Parliament, David Sassoli (PD-IT), has surprisingly passed away today. RIP.

He had complications with Legionnaires disease believe it or not. It led to the EP not having hot water for several months.

He was most known in Italy as beloved news anchor too. But here he was also known for trying to bring the EP closer to the regular citizen and fiercely defending its interests within the European institutional constellation. With him passing and Klaus Welle moving on we may see a downsized EP for better or worse.

[Frodo]

Overlooked amidst the drama over Ukraine, but very consequential for the future of liberal democracy in the European Union:

EU can withhold funds from Hungary, Poland, top court rules

In a ruling hailed as a boost to democratic values, the European Union’s highest court said Wednesday that the 27-nation bloc can suspend support payments to member states if they breach rule of law principles.

The right-wing governments of Hungary and Poland, which had challenged the EU’s right to take such action, responded by arguing that the rule lacked a proper legal basis and would fundamentally interfere with their running of national business.

Both nations, large recipients of EU funds, have come under increasing criticism over the past few years for veering away from democratic norms with policies such as exerting excessive control over the judiciary, stifling media freedom and denying the rights of LGBT people.

When it comes to democratic principles, “the European Union must be able to defend those values, within the limits of its powers,” the European Court of Justice said in Wednesday’s ruling.

“We have the legal authority that is necessary,” France’s Europe Minister Clement Beaune told the EU legislature. “The rule of law is our treasure.”

The court decision was the last legal impediment to EU institutions withholding funds from any government they consider to be at odds with core democratic principles. The rule, seen as the EU’s most potent weapon to prevent a democratic rift from deepening within the bloc, was approved 14 months ago, but the executive European Commission waited to apply it.

https://curia.europa.eu/jcms/upload/docs/application/pdf/2022-02/cp220028en.pdf

[Zinneke]

Interesting to note Von Der Leyen is under some pressure because she was on texting terms with the Pfizer CEO negotiating for prices. But the media arent following.

[President Johnson]

Orban may just have won reelection, but it might get expensive now. And rightfully so. The EU needs to show some teeths here.

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1511350635656093697

[Frodo]

It looks like Serbia is starting to sour on the European Union:

For first time, a majority of Serbs are against joining the EU - poll

[thebeloitmoderate]

It looks like Serbia is starting to sour on the European Union:

For first time, a majority of Serbs are against joining the EU - poll

Yeah you can tell that Serbia does not wants to piss off Russia while at the same time trying to be a EU Member.

[Frodo]

Bulgaria seems to have relented and reached a deal with North Macedonia:

N. Macedonia agrees compromise for EU membership talks: PM

[brucejoel99]

Bulgaria seems to have relented and reached a deal with North Macedonia:

N. Macedonia agrees compromise for EU membership talks: PM

How soon can it complete all negotiations, meet all criteria, & officially join? By the end of this decade? By mid-century?

[Frodo]

EU to open accession talks with Albania, North Macedonia

Bulgaria seems to have relented and reached a deal with North Macedonia:

N. Macedonia agrees compromise for EU membership talks: PM

How soon can it complete all negotiations, meet all criteria, & officially join? By the end of this decade? By mid-century?

It depends.  In Croatia's case it took about a decade between applying for EU membership in 2003, and then officially joining the organization in 2013.  So probably early in the next decade. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

EU to open accession talks with Albania, North Macedonia

Bulgaria seems to have relented and reached a deal with North Macedonia:

N. Macedonia agrees compromise for EU membership talks: PM

How soon can it complete all negotiations, meet all criteria, & officially join? By the end of this decade? By mid-century?

It depends.  In Croatia's case it took about a decade between applying for EU membership in 2003, and then officially joining the organization in 2013.  So probably early in the next decade. 

Croatia may well have been further along the road (even at the start of its official candidacy) than Albania and North Macedonia are now, when it comes to meeting all of the EU acquis. Serbia and Montenegro are ahead of these two but their progress could be described as slow, at best. They have been candidates for years and governance in Albania/NM isn’t much better.

Joining in the early 2030s is a possibility but far from certain.

[Frodo]

Good to see the EU has recognized the obvious:

EU lawmakers declare that Hungary is no longer a democracy

[CumbrianLefty]

Its obviousness does not make the importance of officially stating it any less.

[Frodo]

Hopefully they go through with it -we don't want any other country following Viktor Orban's Hungary into the abyss of illiberalism:

EU proposes to suspend billions in funds to Hungary

[Storr]

Good News!

For comparison: Bulgaria reached "Commission recommends granting of candidate status" on July 15, 1997 and became an EU member on January 1, 2007. Croatia reached this step on April 20, 2004 and became an EU member on July 1, 2013.

https://twitter.com/BalkanInsight/status/1580166346221842432?s=20&t=lkyEGShD...

https://twitter.com/BalkanInsight/status/1580166350009339905?s=20&t=lkyEGShD...

[Storr]

It looks like Croatia will join the Schengen Area. Earlier this week, the Netherlands dropped their opposition to Romania joining Schengen, but it and Bulgaria's candidacies are "politically and technically intertwined". So even if Austria dropped its opposition to Romania, it still won't be allowed to join.

It's ironic that the two counties unlikely to be allowed to join Schengen this week have been waiting to do so since 2011, while Croatia will be allowed to join, having only become an EU member in 2013.

https://twitter.com/euronews/status/1600528108351799299?s=20&t=eRTbHTPJPi5j8...

"The enlargement of the passport-free Schengen Area has been put under serious question ahead of a key vote in Brussels, as Austria and the Netherlands continue to have concerns about the admission of Romania and Bulgaria."

"Interior ministers from the European Union are expected to take a vote on Thursday to decide on the long-stalled candidacies. A unanimous endorsement is required to admit new members into Schengen and abolish checks at all internal borders."