European Union general discussion

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1682005056697114625?s=20

[Storr]

It's interesting how different Eastern Europe is today (bottom map) compared to this map from 1992. I'd think much of the region's improvement is due to EU membership, as no EU member is in the bottom GDP per capita category.

https://twitter.com/lijukic/status/1683908190218354717?s=20

2021 GDP (nominal) per capital map
Darkest/Navy blue: ≥ $60,000 USD, lighter dark/Duke blue: ≥ $30,000 USD,
medium/neutral blue: ≥ $10,000 USD, light blue: < $10,000 USD

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1688095623000547328?s=20

[Storr]

"The renewed push for a larger Europe marks the first such expansion drive since the bloc accepted Croatia into its ranks in 2013."

NATO members Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania, seem likely to be the countries that are the closest to joining the EU:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1701319709935743436?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"The renewed push for a larger Europe marks the first such expansion drive since the bloc accepted Croatia into its ranks in 2013."

NATO members Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania, seem likely to be the countries that are the closest to joining the EU:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1701319709935743436?s=20

Iceland is the closest. The polls shifted in favour of joining in the last couple of years, and the Eurosceptic government is unpopular there.

I don't think they are as determined to pursue membership as these other countries, but there's a decent chance they do - and if they do, the process will be much quicker for them, in part because they may be well be able to unfreeze their old membership application.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Serbia also deserves a mention here. The EU increasingly favours them in regional spats, Vucic is angling for closer ties as much as the local population will allow him to, and on most issues besides their neighbours, they are more of a European team player than Hungary.

I'm not saying this is ideal, but I think it's the reality.

[Frodo]

Is the West Changing Its Policy on Serbia?

[Storr]

This leaves only Cluster 6 "External Relations" left to complete screening for North Macedonia. It only has two chapters, meaning 31 out of 33 EU chapters have already had screening completed. That's despite the country having started EU membership negotiations just last July.

https://twitter.com/eu_near/status/1702584510792020335?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This leaves only Cluster 6 "External Relations" left to complete screening for North Macedonia. It only has two chapters, meaning 31 out of 33 EU chapters have already had screening completed. That's despite the country having started EU membership negotiations just last July.

https://twitter.com/eu_near/status/1702584510792020335?s=20

Methinks they are trying to award North Macedonia for playing ball...

[Storr]

Obviously these words are just window dressing from Von der Leyen, but it's better than nothing I suppose:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1704525236111081895?s=20

[Storr]

It's interesting how different Eastern Europe is today (bottom map) compared to this map from 1992. I'd think much of the region's improvement is due to EU membership, as no EU member is in the bottom GDP per capita category.

https://twitter.com/lijukic/status/1683908190218354717?s=20

2021 GDP (nominal) per capital map
Darkest/Navy blue: ≥ $60,000 USD, lighter dark/Duke blue: ≥ $30,000 USD,
medium/neutral blue: ≥ $10,000 USD, light blue: < $10,000 USD

Relatedly:

https://twitter.com/k_sonin/status/1704601898370609439?s=20

[Sol]

This leaves only Cluster 6 "External Relations" left to complete screening for North Macedonia. It only has two chapters, meaning 31 out of 33 EU chapters have already had screening completed. That's despite the country having started EU membership negotiations just last July.

https://twitter.com/eu_near/status/1702584510792020335?s=20

Hasn't North Macedonia had issues with Bulgaria playing games, or are those problems cleared up?

[Storr]

On Monday, Victor Orban compared the EU to the Soviet Union. Last time I checked, EU troops weren't occupying Hungary. At least he seems to be saying EU rule is better than the "Soviet times"?

"“Today, things pop up that remind us of the Soviet times. Yes, it happens that history repeats itself,” Orbán said in the city of Veszprem, local media reported. “Fortunately, what once was tragedy is now a comedy at best. Fortunately, Brussels is not Moscow. Moscow was a tragedy. Brussels is just a bad contemporary parody.”

“We had to dance to the tune that Moscow whistled, Brussels whistles too, but we dance as we want to, and if we don’t want to, then we don’t dance,” Orbán added."

[Storr]

"BREAKING: Ukraine and Moldova should start the process of becoming EU members, the European Commission said."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1722216843677667585?s=20

[Storr]

If you want a quick rundown on the EU's 2023 Enlargement Package, this is a good article.

The biggest things:

1) Ukraine and Moldova are recommended for starting negotiations

2) Georgia is recommended for candidate status

3) Bosnia and Herzegovina is recommended for starting negotiations once it meets a list of 14 criteria. I doubt this happens soon as Republika Srpska is from where almost all of the issues arise and if you know anything about Bosnian politics, it's that they're the "Senator No" of the Balkans.

If you're someone with nothing else better to do like myself, here's where you can find the full 1,200 page report and links to the individual reports for each country.

Note: I'm glad the EU has explicitly and publicly tied resolving the Kosovo dispute to Serbia's EU accession: "On the normalisation of relations [between Kosovo and Serbia], whilst an Agreement was reached in the EU-facilitated Dialogue, both Serbia and Kosovo are yet to start the implementation of their respective obligations, which are binding for the Parties and a key part of their European paths."

[Open Source Intelligence]

Any talk been going on about EU elections in 7 months?

[Frodo]

Serbia and Kosovo remain at logger-heads, but there has been some positive movement lately on the part of Serbia:

Serbia's pro-Russia intelligence chief sanctioned by the US has resigned citing Western pressure

Of course, that depends on who ultimately replaces him.  

[Storr]

"Orbán: Ukraine not ready for EU membership talks"

Let's see if he puts his money where his mouth in December, when EU members vote on granting Ukraine and Moldova membership negotiations. Orbán is notorious for saying all kinds of garbage, but ultimately folding once someone (EU, NATO, US, etc.) puts pressure on him.

Sure, Jan: "Orbán also stressed that Ukraine’s membership talks cannot be linked to Hungary’s frozen EU funds.

“I would like to make it very clear that the opening of negotiations in Ukraine is not a matter of business,” the Hungarian leader said, adding that Brussels must give Hungary “what they owe.”"

[Zinneke]

We should absolutely give Hungary what we owe them, that is total expulsion and left to fend for themselves from any external aggressor.


That said, Orban is right about Ukraine not being ready. His reasons are likely wrong as he probably wants to annex Zarkapattia but he is right.

[Storr]

"Orbán: Ukraine not ready for EU membership talks"

Let's see if he puts his money where his mouth in December, when EU members vote on granting Ukraine and Moldova membership negotiations. Orbán is notorious for saying all kinds of garbage, but ultimately folding once someone (EU, NATO, US, etc.) puts pressure on him.

Sure, Jan: "Orbán also stressed that Ukraine’s membership talks cannot be linked to Hungary’s frozen EU funds.

“I would like to make it very clear that the opening of negotiations in Ukraine is not a matter of business,” the Hungarian leader said, adding that Brussels must give Hungary “what they owe.”"

The likelihood that Ukraine will be approved to start EU accession negotiations this month continues to look dim. It's odd that Orbán's main argument against doing so is talking up how corrupt Ukraine is, while Hungary's track record on corruption isn't exactly spotless.

"“Hungary is a neighbour of Ukraine … we know exactly what is happening,” Orbán told French news outlet Le Point in an interview published Friday. “Ukraine is known to be one of the most corrupt countries in the world. It’s a joke!” he said."

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-hungary-ukraine-corruption-eu-accession/

[Storr]

This leaves only Cluster 6 "External Relations" left to complete screening for North Macedonia. It only has two chapters, meaning 31 out of 33 EU chapters have already had screening completed. That's despite the country having started EU membership negotiations just last July.

https://twitter.com/eu_near/status/1702584510792020335?s=20

As of December 7th, both Albania and North Macedonia have completed EU accession chapter screening. Hopefully chapters will soon start being opened. (In order to join the EU all 36 chapters need to be opened and subsequently closed.)

"Congratulations to 🇦🇱#Albania & 🇲🇰#NorthMacedonia on the end of the screening meetings!

With over 167 meetings held & the involvement of 1000 experts from the #EU and 2000 experts from Albania & North Macedonia, this represents an important step on their respective 🇪🇺#EU paths!"

https://twitter.com/GertJanEU/status/1732841243317506211?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-has-tough-job-fight-rate-cut-bets-inflation-falls-2023-12-13/

Christine Lagarde is such a f**king braindead neoliberal tool. It's really remarkable that someone who's accomplished nothing of note in her career and was on the wrong side every major economic issue of this century was still constantly rewarded with more and more high-prestige jobs. Her whole job is to toe the line on the most outdated austerity dogma even when all the available data points in the opposite direction. Americans are lucky to have Jerome Powell in comparison, honestly.

[Storr]

Incredibly based:

"EU leaders have decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy's reaction:

"This is a victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe. A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens.""

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1735361007835300043?s=20

[Storr]

Orbán being a loser and a cuck? What a shock, we've never seen this happen before.

"Hungary's Viktor Orbán, who vehemently opposed the move, left the room when the decision was taken, according to two sources who were both briefed on the discussion.

This allowed for an unanimous verdict from the European Council."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1735362760937017383?s=20

I wonder why Orbán agreed to leave the room, knowing it would allow a unanimous vote in favor. He must have been promised something in return, right?

"Hours into negotiations on opening accession talks with Ukraine, it was Germany's Olaf Scholz who came up with the solution.

Scholz told Orbán that he could leave the room so other leaders could take an unanimous decision, two officials said."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1735379878206144620?s=20

[Helsinkian]

He must have been promised something in return, right?

He got ten billion euros.

https://twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1734508436463714310

Edit: And in the end Orbán still vetoed the proposed €50 billion assistance to Ukraine from the EU budget, which would have been more urgent than the decision to begin EU membership negotiations (which will take years anyway).