An Alternative 1996 Election/Future Timeline
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Vice President Christian Man
Christian Man
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« on: August 18, 2021, 09:39:06 PM »
« edited: August 19, 2021, 12:11:35 AM by Christian Man »

It has been called the biggest upset of the 20th century. Democrat turned Reform party businessman Donald Trump won the Republican nomination in a major upset and has defeated popular incumbent president Bill Clinton to be the 43rd president. Trump criticized Clinton on many pressing issues including the 1994 crime bill, NAFTA, and not doing enough to negotiate with the Republican-controlled Congress. While Newt Gingrich was his original choice for VP, he decided to chose Michigan governor John Engler in hopes of winning back the Rust Belt, in which his strategy worked. Unlike OTL, Clinton would've gotten lukewarm progressive support with most progressives staying at home in boycott, believing Clinton was going to lose, helping Trump more. While most of Trump's support would've come from supporters of HW Bush & Perot, he would've applied the Southern strategy, in which would've been enough to win voters who would've otherwise voted for Clinton. As of 2020, Bill Clinton would've been the last Democrat to win West Virginia and Trump in 1996 would've been the last Republican to win New Hampshire as well as the NPV and as of 2020, Al Gore in 2000 would've been the last Democrat to win both Arkansas and Tennessee.

While this is an unrealistic scenario as Trump was a Democrat and friend of The Clintons at the time, but how do people feel about these maps?



Businessman Donald Trump/Governor John Engel: 50.7%
President Bill Clinton/Vice President Al Gore: 48.2%

Trump would've been a one-term president like OTL. but likely for other reasons, one of them being that progressive turnout was much higher and in favor of Gore. Shortly after their humiliating defeat, Bill & Hillary Clinton sell their Arkansas home and move to New York. While people were questioning whether or not Bill will run in a 2000 rematch, Hillary Clinton enters in a last minute bid to become senator of New York. In an unexpected upset, former VP Clinton narrowly beats former representative/vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro. While incument D'Amato did well statewide, Clinton managed to fire up liberal and minority turnout and win the NYC metro by a large enough margin to outweigh D'Amato and become senator. Gore is criticized for his  ambitious liberal agenda and loses in a close, yet unexpected upset to Texas governor George W. Bush in 2004, with Ohio being the deciding state, going to Bush by around 540 votes. In 2006, VP Pelosi beats incument representative Gavin Newsom in an upset in the Democratic primary and when Dems take the house of representatives, is elected to be Speaker of The House, the first former VP to earn the title. Following a faulty recession and fallout over his hawkish WMD claims, Bush loses the 2008 election to Barack Obama in a landslide of 55-42%. Clinton accepts a secretary of state position under Obama and the rest is history. In 2015 after "retiring" from politics following his 2000 loss, Trump again decides to run for president. In 2020, Pence is nominated.



Former Vice President Al Gore/Representative Nancy Pelosi: 50.4%
President Donald Trump/Vice President John Engel: 48.9%

2004 map: Same as OTL, besides an atlas red Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa, all of which would go by <40%. Ohio would remain atlas blue, but decrease to <40%. All other states would remain unchanged. Gore narrowly wins the popular vote by around 3,000 votes.

2008 map: Obama flips Arizona, Missouri, Montana, and Georgia. Map remains mostly the same though and he remains the last Democrat to win the last three of those states.

2012 & 2016: Same as OTL

2020: Pence is able to distance himself from Trump's response to Covid-19 and present a more concrete plan. Pence managed to almost fully unite the GOP and was able to win back a portion of Romney-Clinton voters while also holding onto much of Trump's base. It is also the first election in history in which the loser of the P.V. wins the presidential election consequently. A group of progressive activists attempt to invade the Capitol to attempt to overturn the election, but their plans are thwarted by intelligence before it happens. As of August 2021, he has governed similarly to Trump, but more pragmatically and his approval rating seems to be sitting around 45% in the most recent poll. I anticipate most of the MAGA crowd will revolt against him before 2024 is up, most likely due to a stance he takes on trade, but for now Trump is pleased with him. We'll see if things change.



[/color] Vice President Mike Pence/Senator Ron Johnson: 47.4%, 279 E.V.[/color]
Former Vice President Joe Biden/Senator Kamala Harris: 50.7%, 259 E.V.
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