https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_nj_081821.pdf/Registered votersPhil Murphy (D-inc) 52%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 36%
Electorate model APhil Murphy (D-inc) 51%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 40%
Electorate model BPhil Murphy (D-inc) 55%
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 36%
They did more electorate models as well, but these numbers seem to represent the range of their results:
A range of potential electorate models* do not alter the current character of this race, with Murphy’s lead ranging from 11 points to 19 points depending on the scenario.