MI-EPIC MRA- Whitmer +1 vs Craig

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1429488542288281600


For the life of me I don’t get why this board is so bullish on whitmer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer will win

[MT Treasurer]

I think she’s the most vulnerable D after Kelly and Evers (followed by Sisolak), and I never bought her being considerably less vulnerable than Evers. This is one of those states which will probably see the biggest D->R swings between 2018 and 2022 in a R-leaning or even neutral year, and Whitmer is just about the worst possible D candidate to overcome those dynamics.

I don’t even think it’s out of the question that she performs on par with or slightly worse than Evers.

[Skill and Chance]

I think she’s the most vulnerable D after Kelly and Evers (followed by Sisolak), and I never bought her being considerably less vulnerable than Evers. This is one of those states which will probably see the biggest D->R swings between 2018 and 2022 in a R-leaning or even neutral year, and Whitmer is just about the worst possible D candidate to overcome those dynamics.

I don’t even think it’s out of the question that she performs on par with or slightly worse than Evers.

I agree with this.  She's basically governing MI like it's MD.  Evers and Kelly have both done a pretty good job of limiting the controversy.  Whitmer fully embraces it at every turn.

However, Sisolak automatically becomes the most vulnerable Dem governor if the CA recall does way better than Trump/Cox in SoCal.

[BoiseBoy]

Whitmer was lucky in 2018 with the national environment and a not-particularly-great opponent in Schuette.

I still think she'll win in 2022, but by maybe 3 or 4 points at the most.

[President Johnson]

I think she’s the most vulnerable D after Kelly and Evers (followed by Sisolak), and I never bought her being considerably less vulnerable than Evers. This is one of those states which will probably see the biggest D->R swings between 2018 and 2022 in a R-leaning or even neutral year, and Whitmer is just about the worst possible D candidate to overcome those dynamics.

I don’t even think it’s out of the question that she performs on par with or slightly worse than Evers.

I agree with this.  She's basically governing MI like it's MD.  Evers and Kelly have both done a pretty good job of limiting the controversy.  Whitmer fully embraces it at every turn.

However, Sisolak automatically becomes the most vulnerable Dem governor if the CA recall does way better than Trump/Cox in SoCal.

Help me understand this. Republicans control the state legislature, so how is she governing like it was deep blue state? Without having control of the legislative branch, it's not that easy to get more partisan policies passed.

Tom Wolf is also very liberal and was always popular in Pennsylvania. However, large parts of his agenda like minimum wage increase are stonewalled by a (heavily gerrymandered) Republican legislature.

[Xing]

Pretty much a pure Toss-Up, and I agree that this race won't vote that far left of WI-GOV (if at all.) I really don't get why Democrats are so bullish about their chances in MI, especially since they're quite realistic, or if anything a bit overly pessimistic about their chances in WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pretty much a pure Toss-Up, and I agree that this race won't vote that far left of WI-GOV (if at all.) I really don't get why Democrats are so bullish about their chances in MI, especially since they're quite realistic, or if anything a bit overly pessimistic about their chances in WI.

The last poll in WI in Change had both Evers and Nelson leading I March 48/44

[Chips]

Toss-up.

I actually agree with Xing and MT Treasurer in saying that Michigan could actually plausibly vote to the right of Wisconsin next year.

[THG]

I think Michigan could flip at the governorship level. But there’s no way it votes to the right of Wisconsin unless Evers over-performs like crazy, or if Whitmer gets crushed.

[ElectionsGuy]

Already? Yikes.