San Diego county: recall 49 keep 40
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  San Diego county: recall 49 keep 40
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Author Topic: San Diego county: recall 49 keep 40  (Read 1153 times)
Matty
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« on: July 31, 2021, 06:13:51 PM »

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Biden his time
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2021, 06:20:14 PM »

Worrying poll for Team Newsom

Assuming uniform swing across the state from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election we get:

45.84% Recall
43.32% Remain

These aren't ideal numbers for an incumbent Democratic governor in California.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2021, 06:27:32 PM »

Worrying poll for Team Newsom

Assuming uniform swing across the state from the 2020 U.S. Presidential election we get:

45.84% Recall
43.32% Remain

These aren't ideal numbers for an incumbent Democratic governor in California.

On the other hand.....george bush in 2004 won san diego county by a solid 6 point margin and still lost CA by double digits.

A nine point win in SD county would have still led to a 6-7 point loss in CA for bush
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2021, 08:19:09 PM »

This is going to be close.
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Pink Panther
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2021, 10:47:16 PM »


Is nobody talking about how Kevin Paffrath, YouTuber, is leading these replacement candidates? Especially against former popular mayor Kevin Faulconer.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2021, 11:00:28 PM »


Sure seems like it.

I think the chance of the recall succeeding is still less than 50%, but it's a lot closer to 50% than 0.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2021, 05:28:12 AM »

Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2021, 10:06:07 AM »

Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.

Paffrath is not a mainline Dem.  He would be in the running for most conservative Dem governor in the country (depending entirely on how much weight you put on JBE being pro-life).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2021, 10:07:42 AM »


Sure seems like it.

I think the chance of the recall succeeding is still less than 50%, but it's a lot closer to 50% than 0.

Would be very ironic if Newsom loses and then McAuliffe wins comfortably given the CW about both races.  Fairly plausible too, as this would send the VA/NJ Dems into panic/regroup mode.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2021, 12:51:03 PM »

I wonder how many Democrats or Dem leaning independents went "Oh, there's a Democrat on the ballot, guess I can safely vote to recall"
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2021, 01:19:32 PM »

Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.

Paffrath is not a mainline Dem.  He would be in the running for most conservative Dem governor in the country (depending entirely on how much weight you put on JBE being pro-life).

I'm going to guess that approximately none of the respondents selected his name because they know anything about him. I don't know who this guy is!
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: August 04, 2021, 08:05:46 AM »

Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.
he was the only candidate listed with a D next to his name. That's why he got this high. In actuality, there will be no partisan labels on the ballot.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2021, 12:30:22 PM »

Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.
he was the only candidate listed with a D next to his name. That's why he got this high. In actuality, there will be no partisan labels on the ballot.

I thought that it was only Newsom who wasn’t getting his affiliation listed on the ballot?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2021, 01:36:32 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2021, 02:09:43 PM by MT Treasurer »


Sure seems like it.

I think the chance of the recall succeeding is still less than 50%, but it's a lot closer to 50% than 0.

Would be very ironic if Newsom loses and then McAuliffe wins comfortably given the CW about both races.  Fairly plausible too, as this would send the VA/NJ Dems into panic/regroup mode.

At least the (tiresome) VA trend/partisanship deniers would then have a point about VA not being CA...

I won’t buy Newsom getting recalled and replaced with a Republican until I see it with my own eyes, though.
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ChiefFireWaterMike
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« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2021, 02:03:42 PM »

Yeah, somehow I'm not convinced that a poll whose winner would be Some Guy (D) indicates that Newsom is in real danger.
he was the only candidate listed with a D next to his name. That's why he got this high. In actuality, there will be no partisan labels on the ballot.

I thought that it was only Newsom who wasn’t getting his affiliation listed on the ballot?
He means on the poll.
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Chips
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« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2021, 12:21:13 PM »

Yeah I think it's more likely than not the county votes against Newsom. Question is by how much. If it's narrowly Newsom will probably be okay but if it's by the margins the poll is suggesting that means trouble.
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