FL-St. Pete: Rubio +2
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  FL-St. Pete: Rubio +2
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Author Topic: FL-St. Pete: Rubio +2  (Read 1735 times)
Skye
yeah_93
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« on: August 18, 2021, 08:04:31 AM »

Rubio (R, inc.) 48
Demings (D) 46

https://floridapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Poll-of-Rubio-vs.-Demings.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2021, 08:29:26 AM »

Trump +2.2 sample, so not that far off from the actual result (Trump +3.3)
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2021, 08:34:15 AM »

Trump +2.2 sample, so not that far off from the actual result (Trump +3.3)

Don't try to unskew polls, it never works out. Gotta assume the result is more like Rubio +8. There's no way Rubio has higher support among women than men.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2021, 08:39:36 AM »

Trump +2.2 sample, so not that far off from the actual result (Trump +3.3)

Don't try to unskew polls, it never works out. Gotta assume the result is more like Rubio +8. There's no way Rubio has higher support among women than men.

I'm not unskewing it, the sample looks correct. It also had more Republicans than Democrats which at this point is also on point.

You're unskewing it by saying that the support doesn't make sense.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2021, 08:42:03 AM »

Trump +2.2 sample, so not that far off from the actual result (Trump +3.3)

Don't try to unskew polls, it never works out. Gotta assume the result is more like Rubio +8. There's no way Rubio has higher support among women than men.

I'm not unskewing it, the sample looks correct. It also had more Republicans than Democrats which at this point is also on point.

You're unskewing it by saying that the support doesn't make sense.

Florida polls suck even when Trump's not on the ballot.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2021, 08:49:25 AM »

Lol St Pete polls.  They were terrible in 2020 (had Dems winning many state legislative seats that they ended up losing badly in).  Throw it in the trash.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2021, 09:22:01 AM »

Great news

Yeah, and Rs are all in pbower2A Approvals believing that Afghanistan is the end of Biden Prez and believe that Biden is like Trump at 46 percent Approvals, lol plse, Biden has a nothing like Trump whom was twice impeached and impeachment was a factor in 2018
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2021, 09:32:49 AM »

Nah, I'm not getting fooled by early polls and certainly not by FL polls. And said pollster's record is kind of questionable, too.

Demings for sure is a good candidate - possibly the best we have in this state - yet FL is still a light red state and 2022 a neutral environment at best. Not to forget this state and an inept state party disappointed us multiple times. I consider this race Likely R until hard evidence in Sept/Oct 2022 suggests otherwise.
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Gracile
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2021, 10:07:33 AM »

I can see Demings possibly getting 46%, yes.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2021, 10:08:50 AM »

Closer to the truth than Rubio +20, but still too rosy for Democrats.
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THG
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2021, 10:52:19 AM »

There is no way in hell the Senate (or even governors) race in Florida is within 5. But this poll also has DeSantis tied with Crist, so what can I say?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2021, 01:32:23 PM »

Yikes! If we flip our two realistic targets in NH and GA, we can only afford to lose one of PA/FL/IA/OH....
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S019
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2021, 04:26:11 PM »

Probably a bit too Dem friendly, but I do think this Democratic chances are underrated here by both sides. Still Lean R for now, but there's a good chance this is Rubio's closest race yet.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2021, 07:12:13 PM »

Bulls***!

This will be Rubio+8 at the most minimum of minimums, especially when he's winning 15% of Democrats. Florida weather boils everybody's brains it seems. Even people who should know better.
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TodayJunior
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2021, 09:39:22 PM »

Seems about right give or take 2-3 points. In the end, Rubio +6, DeSantis +2.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2021, 10:39:36 PM »

The gender breakdown alone should tell you what a laughable crock of sh*t this poll is.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2021, 02:23:39 AM »

They keep polling this state, it's a Lean R race but they won poll the PA Primary or WI D primary, polls are doing it again just like Change had D's winning FL and NC
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: August 19, 2021, 07:17:15 AM »

St Pete is not even going to try to fix their crap polling methodology.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2021, 07:40:51 AM »

It's an R state, polls showed us the samething in 2020 and we still lost FL, D's will lose it by 3
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Biden his time
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« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2021, 02:51:57 PM »

Adjusting for the usual 4% Democratic lean in these polls, R+6 seems about right (also exactly what I've been predicting the margin will be around).
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THG
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« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2021, 04:53:45 PM »

Rubio wins by 11. DeSantis by 7-8.

Anyone who believes St Pete’s is beyond saving.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2021, 05:14:39 PM »

Rubio wins by 11. DeSantis by 7-8.

Anyone who believes St Pete’s is beyond saving.


Lol Trump won the state by 3 DeSantis and Rubio will also win by 3 not 10
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Donerail
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« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2021, 06:41:59 PM »

I would not make grand pronouncements about the certain outcomes here if I couldn't even spell the name of the pollster I'm criticizing
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The Smiling Face On Your TV
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« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2021, 06:55:42 PM »

>Tie for 18-29 while Demings+4 for 50-69

(x) doubt
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2021, 06:29:05 AM »

Rubio is going to lose
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