1976 Gerald Ford v Mo Udall

[Lincoln Republican]

For this scenario, I am staying as close as possible to real events.

In 1976, of course, Jimmy Carter won the Democratic nomination.  In this scenario, Congressman Mo Udall of Arizona wins the Democratic nomination.  In actual fact, Udall made a very credible run for the nomination, was the runner up, and made it into a contest.

No one knows for sure who Udall would have picked for Vice President, so I am making what I believe to be a logical and quite possible pick, Senator Birch Bayh of Indiana.  Bayh was a liberal from the midwest, who would have worked well with Udall.  Udall would need strength in the midwest.  Bayh was the principle architect of the Equal Rights Amendment.

The Republican ticket is President Gerald Ford of Michigan and Senator Bob Dole of Kansas.  Ford had pardoned disgraced former President Nixon in 1974.  In 1976, much of the nation was still upset over the Nixon scandals.

Can Mo Udall, who said

"I'm a one-eyed Mormon Democrat from conservative Arizona and you can't have a higher handicap than that."

win the election?

Republican
President Gerald Ford (MI)/Senator Bob Dole (KS)

Democrat
Congressman Mo Udall (AZ)/Senator Birch Bayh (IN)

How does this election turn out?
Maps?

[Boris]

Interesting and plausible scenario.

First off, I'm going to make two assumptions:

1. The national mood in 1976 favored the Democrats. Ford was weakened by a poor economy, the Nixon pardon, and a strong challenge from California Governor Ronald Reagan. Ford could have only won the 1976 election by running a near perfect campaign, which in fact he pretty much did after the Republican National Convention (that one Soviet Domination in Eastern Europe gaffe probably cost him the election).

2. The south wouldn't vote for a western Mormon candidate in 1976. This is just a guess; I could be wrong.

Basically, we get another close election with this scenario. Udall comes out with a strong lead over Ford after the Democratic National Convention. Ford manages to close the gap, but not by enough.

Udall 272-266
Udall wins a 50-49 popular vote.

The main battleground states in this election are New York, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Udall is declared the winner at 4:29 AM on November 3, 1976 after he takes California by 42,000 votes.

[Beet]

You think Bayh as VP would have put Indiana in Udall's column? I'm doubtful...

[Boris]

You think Bayh as VP would have put Indiana in Udall's column? I'm doubtful...

The real 1976 result in Indiana was 53-46 Ford. Unless support for Bayh was only lukewarm in Indiana (I guess that must've been the case, seeing who they elected over Bayh in 1980), I think that it would've been enough to tip Indiana in Udall's favor.

[Beet]

You think Bayh as VP would have put Indiana in Udall's column? I'm doubtful...

The real 1976 result in Indiana was 53-46 Ford. Unless support for Bayh was only lukewarm in Indiana (I guess that must've been the case, seeing who they elected over Bayh in 1980), I think that it would've been enough to tip Indiana in Udall's favor.

True, but there are some evangelical Christians outside the South, and they would have been turned off by Udall's mormonism, which would have cancelled out Bayh. Besides, part of the reason Indiana was so close is that Carter was not seen unambiguously as the more liberal candidate, which Udall would have been.

[Boris]

You think Bayh as VP would have put Indiana in Udall's column? I'm doubtful...

The real 1976 result in Indiana was 53-46 Ford. Unless support for Bayh was only lukewarm in Indiana (I guess that must've been the case, seeing who they elected over Bayh in 1980), I think that it would've been enough to tip Indiana in Udall's favor.

True, but there are some evangelical Christians outside the South, and they would have been turned off by Udall's mormonism, which would have cancelled out Bayh. Besides, part of the reason Indiana was so close is that Carter was not seen unambiguously as the more liberal candidate, which Udall would have been.

Good point. Give Indiana back to Ford. That makes it a 272-266 election, which would be the fourth (behind 1800, 1876 and 2000) closest election in U.S. history, in terms of electoral votes.

What about Utah? Think Udall's religion would have carried him to a solid win there? Or would they reject Udall's perceived liberalism in a similiar manner as you hypothesized in Indiana?

[Beet]

Ford 276-262

Here is my guesstimate... where Ford pulls it out in a squeaker, the main battlegrounds being Ohio, New Jersey, Illinois, and California. Udall appeals to the north and west better than Carter, though he loses Utah as he is in conflict with the church's still-official position (then) of excluding blacks.

[Dr. Cynic]

Well, I've done this scenario several times... Personally, I would've been strongly behind the man who I quote in my sig, Mr. Too Funny To Be President... In any case, my simulator says that with economic and domestics the same, Udall has always won, providing that they debate... In the scenarios without a debate, Ford seems to win.

In any case, Udall in a squeaker.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Udall wins close election

[Lincoln Republican]

3 to 1 to date that Udall would win a close election.

That would make Mo Udall only the second President, after James Garfield in 1880, who would go directly from the Congressional House to the White House.

[adam]

Udall 271-267
Udall 51%-49%

[Lincoln Republican]

Udall 271-267
Udall 51%-49%

To paraphrase Mo Udall

"And you can't have a closer election than that."

Udall would probably have been a very good President, better, by far, than Carter, IMO.  Does anyone agree with this statement?

[Boris]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I disagree. 1976 was a bad time to be elected. The economy was poor, there was the Iranian Hostage Crisis, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Essentially, there were a myriad of problems to deal with, none of which had easy solutions. In many ways, Carter intensified these problems with general incompetence/inexperience. Udall might have had better relations with congress than Carter did, and might have done a more adept job of curtailing the effect of those problems, but ultimately, he too would have succumbed to the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

[adam]

To paraphrase Mo Udall

"And you can't have a closer election than that."

Udall would probably have been a very good President, better, by far, than Carter, IMO.  Does anyone agree with this statement?

I strongly agree with you. I personally think that Udall's loss in the primaries was one of the biggest electoral tragedies in US History. With hindsight, I highly doubt the Democratic primary voters wouldn't have even looked at Carter.

[Dr. Cynic]

I don't think Udall would be brought down by the Reagan Revolution, because if he had been elected in 1976, I doubt it would have happened. Udall was too smart and would've worked much more harmoniously with Congress, considering he came from the House, while Carter had been a Governor with no expirience with how Congress is sometimes.

I think if Udall had won, he would've had to face Bush in 1980. If Udall had done the kind of job I think him capable of, then he would've won re-election handily.