Does Mississippi have the potential to become more competitive in the future?

[Senator Golden]

Since y'all in the Tennessee thread became interested about Mississippi, what are your thoughts? Does Mississippi have the potential to become more competitive in the future. Since its so racially polarized, does a slight minority growth bode well for dems there. Do counties like Desoto, Madison, and Rankin, traditionally republican suburban counties that are trending dem turn Mississippi bluer. Is this the Democrats next best opportunity to turn a ruby red state purple?

[Skill and Chance]

There's a semi-intriguing argument that the Georgia strategy could work here, but I just don't think the suburbs that are moving are big enough to matter statewide.

Tennessee is a lot more interesting because the math works if Nashville and the surrounding counties start voting like Atlanta.

[Adjective-Statement]

User AN63093 had an interesting take on a 2019 thread titled "Is Mississippi the Most Inelastic state and what direction is MS moving towards?":

The answer to the first question is easy- "yes" or if not yes outright, certainly among the most.  The South (and in particular, the Deep South), is the most inelastic region in the country, with FL as the only exception.  If it's not MS, then maybe AL?  But we're splitting hairs at that point.

The second question is also relatively easy- trending D long-term and it's pretty obvious.  NC Yankee has the correct analysis here, although one quibble- 2028 (even with an Obama type) seems optimistic.  

TTimmy, I don't think the brain drain issue (let's assume it continues) will have much an effect.  White millennials leaving will just be overwhelmed by White seniors dying off (of which there are more by the way), and the net effect is at best, zero.  Even if migration out is particularly severe (which is not unrealistic, MS is almost last in growth nation-wide, at 0.6%, and had a -4% growth of millennials over the past decade), I think that maybe just delays the inevitable by a decade or so.  Although you do have a point, and it's one reason why I think 2028 is a little too soon.

The only thing that will keep MS from flipping D eventually is if the black vote dramatically changes, and I don't think just a little depolarization would do it TTimmy.  Basically the black vote would have to essentially flip parties and start voting R... and while I won't say it will never happen, it's the sorta thing that would require a significant and unpredictable national black-swan type event.

By the 2030s or 40s, some less sophisticated political analysts will be scratching their heads and saying.. well gee, how in the world did MS ever flip.  When really, it was always pretty obvious.  The same thing will be said for ME (the counter-part to MS, in some ways, right up to the anemic growth), when in a few decades it is likely to be one of the most Republican states in the country.  ME will flip way before MS though, in fact, it's already happening as we speak.

[chalmetteowl]

Since y'all in the Tennessee thread became interested about Mississippi, what are your thoughts? Does Mississippi have the potential to become more competitive in the future. Since its so racially polarized, does a slight minority growth bode well for dems there. Do counties like Desoto, Madison, and Rankin, traditionally republican suburban counties that are trending dem turn Mississippi bluer. Is this the Democrats next best opportunity to turn a ruby red state purple?

i think Louisiana is more likely to do so than Mississippi...

the northern part of the state that is more R is depopulating, and the southern part is concentrating along the Interstates, with NOLA suburbs growing bluer and NOLA having room to grow in population

[Skill and Chance]

Since y'all in the Tennessee thread became interested about Mississippi, what are your thoughts? Does Mississippi have the potential to become more competitive in the future. Since its so racially polarized, does a slight minority growth bode well for dems there. Do counties like Desoto, Madison, and Rankin, traditionally republican suburban counties that are trending dem turn Mississippi bluer. Is this the Democrats next best opportunity to turn a ruby red state purple?

i think Louisiana is more likely to do so than Mississippi...

the northern part of the state that is more R is depopulating, and the southern part is concentrating along the Interstates, with NOLA suburbs growing bluer and NOLA having room to grow in population

Totally agree with this.  It looks farfetched today, but Louisiana is a much better candidate for the Georgia strategy than Mississippi.  The influx of film industry types to NOLA combined with rural depopulation matters.  Mississippi is rather unique in that its rural depopulation is disproportionately hurting Dems. 

[Don't Tread on Me]

In theory it should, but it would have to depend on the national Dem strategy. If demographic shifts continue, it could become a majority-minority state by the end of the century. This at the surface would make it favorable to Dems, as well as climate change wrecking havoc along The Gulf Coast. While at this point it seems like it would become the next New Jersey, the residents are also extremely religious, which the Democratic party is not. While I think it will become a swing state eventually, the religious factor would make it unfavorable at the national level, unless The Dems adopt a religious left coalition which seems increasingly unlikely at this point. At the state level, I can see it becoming competitive by the 2030's, as their new governor narrowly won by 5 points. While it can be the next Georgia if its urban areas grow enough, it would take a lot for the state to become competitive, even by the middle of the century. Overall I think it will happen, but it might take 30 years minimum (I anticipate that with NOLA growth, it would be the last state to flip outside of Alabama, the later I don't expect to flip by the end of the century, but anything's possible).

[Statilius the Epicurean]

You'd need Obama-level extreme racial polarisation continuing for several more cycles to make Mississippi competitive, which doesn't appear to be sustainable.

(Democratic % of the two-way vote nationally)


Racial depolarisation is happening as ideological liberals grow in number and take over the Democratic Party, pushing nonwhite conservatives out and polarising politics by ideology instead. As Mississippi is one of the most conservative states in the country it will likely trend Republican if anything.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't know what it is but Atlas is obsessed with Mississippi becoming a democratic state. 

[EastOfEden]

It will not be competitive.

If it flips, it will go completely and all-at-once. It'll trend left slowly, and then at some magical point go from Titanium Tilt R to Titanium Tilt D. The total inelasticity decides this.

[seeking mystical annihilation]

Nice Guy Moderate FF suburbanites are not going to flip Mississippi, just as they didn't flip Georgia. A comparison of the census data from 2010 and 2020 should conclusively kill the "crucial persuadable Romneyite suburbanite" myth (naturally there were some of them, but not nearly enough to flip the state), and that won't happen in a state that's historically been far more conservative and less cosmopolitan.

For Mississippi to become competitive, I see these criteria as the narrowest path:
1. Jackson stops shrinking and becomes a cosmopolitan regional city due to educational institutions, tech company influence, or what have you
2. The same for Memphis, enough for growth by the immigration of a younger and more diverse clientele to spill over into the northern MS suburbs
3. Growth accordingly levels off in the Gulf metros and the white fringes of more polarized smaller metros (Hattiesburg, Meridian, etc)
4. Cultural shift towards more nationalized academic culture in college towns (Oxford, Starkville)

[chalmetteowl]

In theory it should, but it would have to depend on the national Dem strategy. If demographic shifts continue, it could become a majority-minority state by the end of the century. This at the surface would make it favorable to Dems, as well as climate change wrecking havoc along The Gulf Coast. While at this point it seems like it would become the next New Jersey, the residents are also extremely religious, which the Democratic party is not. While I think it will become a swing state eventually, the religious factor would make it unfavorable at the national level, unless The Dems adopt a religious left coalition which seems increasingly unlikely at this point. At the state level, I can see it becoming competitive by the 2030's, as their new governor narrowly won by 5 points. While it can be the next Georgia if its urban areas grow enough, it would take a lot for the state to become competitive, even by the middle of the century. Overall I think it will happen, but it might take 30 years minimum (I anticipate that with NOLA growth, it would be the last state to flip outside of Alabama, the later I don't expect to flip by the end of the century, but anything's possible).

What do you suppose climate change would do to the Louisiana coast that hasn't already happened? Tropical storms and Hurricanes already happen every other year. Most residents outside of hurricane protection systems own boats or have their house raised off the ground (as it's a requirement to get insured). The sea level rise that would make us Waterworld is at least a century away. The seafood would have to be majorly affected.

Those areas that would get it bad are already depopulated. Cameron Parish for instance, has had their population move from their coast to an inland suburb of Lake Charles. Most of those areas are basically one road into the marsh.

Honestly Biden trying to stifle our offshore drilling might be a blessing in disguise. He won't be around forever, and the oil will still be there. Someone somewhere is going to need it in the future and getting it out of the ground is the identity of all of those areas. It pays for those boats and raised houses.

[Don't Tread on Me]

In theory it should, but it would have to depend on the national Dem strategy. If demographic shifts continue, it could become a majority-minority state by the end of the century. This at the surface would make it favorable to Dems, as well as climate change wrecking havoc along The Gulf Coast. While at this point it seems like it would become the next New Jersey, the residents are also extremely religious, which the Democratic party is not. While I think it will become a swing state eventually, the religious factor would make it unfavorable at the national level, unless The Dems adopt a religious left coalition which seems increasingly unlikely at this point. At the state level, I can see it becoming competitive by the 2030's, as their new governor narrowly won by 5 points. While it can be the next Georgia if its urban areas grow enough, it would take a lot for the state to become competitive, even by the middle of the century. Overall I think it will happen, but it might take 30 years minimum (I anticipate that with NOLA growth, it would be the last state to flip outside of Alabama, the later I don't expect to flip by the end of the century, but anything's possible).

What do you suppose climate change would do to the Louisiana coast that hasn't already happened? Tropical storms and Hurricanes already happen every other year. Most residents outside of hurricane protection systems own boats or have their house raised off the ground (as it's a requirement to get insured). The sea level rise that would make us Waterworld is at least a century away. The seafood would have to be majorly affected.

Those areas that would get it bad are already depopulated. Cameron Parish for instance, has had their population move from their coast to an inland suburb of Lake Charles. Most of those areas are basically one road into the marsh.

Honestly Biden trying to stifle our offshore drilling might be a blessing in disguise. He won't be around forever, and the oil will still be there. Someone somewhere is going to need it in the future and getting it out of the ground is the identity of all of those areas. It pays for those boats and raised houses.

You have a good point, but I feel like as the sea level rises/storms get more intense, the remaining voters might become single-issue climate voters (along with the other Gulf states). Even without climate change, I anticipate that the Deep South will become more favorable to the Dems, albeit gradually and likely not for at least several decades, due to a more similar political climate to the Sun Belt than the Rust Belt. While I don't think Mississippi will become like Massachusetts, it'll probably be similar to how Ohio or Michigan was during the later half of the 20th century.

[TML]

If racial polarization continues at current levels (with Democrats winning less than 20% of White voters and Republicans winning less than 10% of Black voters), Black voters would need to comprise at least 45% of the overall electorate in MS in order for this state to become competitive (voter surveys from 2020 indicated that Black voters comprised only 30% of the MS electorate in that election).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Since y'all in the Tennessee thread became interested about Mississippi, what are your thoughts? Does Mississippi have the potential to become more competitive in the future. Since its so racially polarized, does a slight minority growth bode well for dems there. Do counties like Desoto, Madison, and Rankin, traditionally republican suburban counties that are trending dem turn Mississippi bluer. Is this the Democrats next best opportunity to turn a ruby red state purple?

i think Louisiana is more likely to do so than Mississippi...

the northern part of the state that is more R is depopulating, and the southern part is concentrating along the Interstates, with NOLA suburbs growing bluer and NOLA having room to grow in population

Totally agree with this.  It looks farfetched today, but Louisiana is a much better candidate for the Georgia strategy than Mississippi.  The influx of film industry types to NOLA combined with rural depopulation matters.  Mississippi is rather unique in that its rural depopulation is disproportionately hurting Dems. 

Wouldn't a lot of rural blacks in Mississippi be moving to places like Jackson or Alabama rural blacks moving to Birmingham?

[chalmetteowl]

Since y'all in the Tennessee thread became interested about Mississippi, what are your thoughts? Does Mississippi have the potential to become more competitive in the future. Since its so racially polarized, does a slight minority growth bode well for dems there. Do counties like Desoto, Madison, and Rankin, traditionally republican suburban counties that are trending dem turn Mississippi bluer. Is this the Democrats next best opportunity to turn a ruby red state purple?

i think Louisiana is more likely to do so than Mississippi...

the northern part of the state that is more R is depopulating, and the southern part is concentrating along the Interstates, with NOLA suburbs growing bluer and NOLA having room to grow in population

Totally agree with this.  It looks farfetched today, but Louisiana is a much better candidate for the Georgia strategy than Mississippi.  The influx of film industry types to NOLA combined with rural depopulation matters.  Mississippi is rather unique in that its rural depopulation is disproportionately hurting Dems.  

Wouldn't a lot of rural blacks in Mississippi be moving to places like Jackson or Alabama rural blacks moving to Birmingham?

i don't think it's limited to just the larg-EST cities in each of those states. they're moving to larg-ER cities, not necessarily Birmingham or Jackson. There's just not much in the communities they're moving away from, and they go to their regional hub per say, so why not live there where they have a movie theater, higher education, restaurants other than fast food, and more of a dating pool

those people are getting away from communities where their high schools were in the smallest classification for sports, if they even had one. It's kind of sad to see the Louisiana 1A football bracket or class C playoff basketball bracket from 20 or more years ago and count the schools that still exist and the ones that don't. Where they don't exist, they probably consolidated into a bigger school in a larger town that plays football AND basketball. It makes sense, and it's happened in a bunch of Louisiana parishes, including mine.

For instance, Waterproof, LA is the story of a bunch of those communities. They were even state champions in 1943. Now their population has declined by at least 17 percent each of the last few censuses, and it's an aging population. The school is long gone.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The biggest x-factor in Mississippi is the extreme Republicaness of its white population (way out and above any other state, even in the South), the age stratification of this white population's lean and whether that holds up after the people who were old enough to remember the Civil Rights movement (Baby Boomers) are gone?

If in say ten to twenty years, MS whites are voting 75% Republican, then you have a much different picture in terms of overall competitiveness.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

I mean, almost any state has the potential to trend in a certain way, but that’s doesn’t mean it’s likely. I’m very skeptical that Mississippi will become competitive any time soon, since even though counties like Madison are trending favorably for Democrats, the rural counties seem to be trending slightly toward the Republicans, and if Republicans gain a bit more among black voters, it’ll be that much harder for Democrats to come within striking distance.

[Frodo]

There has been speculation about depolarization gaining steam within the next few decades with generational turnover.  If that indeed becomes the case, then in Mississippi we should start seeing race becoming less of a factor, with younger whites in the cities and suburbs voting for Democrats, and younger blacks (especially in rural areas like the Delta) more open to independent or even Republican candidates.  Which would make sense, with the Republican Party (generally speaking) becoming more firmly aligned with rural America and the exurbs (regardless of race or ethnicity), and the Democratic Party cementing itself as the party of the great metropolises and their suburbs.  

[pbrower2a]

1. Miscegenation, which would solve much of Mississippi's polarization.
2. Rapid improvement of educational standards.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There has been speculation about depolarization gaining steam within the next few decades with generational turnover.  If that indeed becomes the case, then in Mississippi we should start seeing race becoming less of a factor, with younger whites in the cities and suburbs voting for Democrats, and younger blacks (especially in rural areas like the Delta) more open to independent or even Republican candidates.  Which would make sense, with the Republican Party (generally speaking) becoming more firmly aligned with rural America and the exurbs (regardless of race or ethnicity), and the Democratic Party cementing itself as the party of the great metropolises and their suburbs.  

What I am talking about is not racial depolarization whenever I post on Mississippi. On the contrary, what I am generally referring to is normalization, relative to the national racial polarization. Mississippi's status as an extreme outlier (even for the South) in terms of Republican support among White voters and its dependence on older whites to maintain it, is something that one would expect to decrease over time as the generation of whites that made it possible dies off.