Texas House redistricting.

[I’m not Stu]

Will the TXGOP try to protect as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will they go with weird shapes that draw out incumbents?

In 2010 they paired Republicans, either getting one of the pair to retire or trying to make it a "fair" battle. They were able to create new districts in suburban counties to compensate. In 2010, the population of Republican-held districts was equivalent to four extra districts. So basically they could keep the same number of districts but with increased margins.

So they’re the kind that doesn’t care about incumbent protection and is perfectly fine with unnecessarily drawing out members of their own party?

[jimrtex]

Will the TXGOP try to protect as many incumbent Republicans as possible, or will they go with weird shapes that draw out incumbents?

In 2010 they paired Republicans, either getting one of the pair to retire or trying to make it a "fair" battle. They were able to create new districts in suburban counties to compensate. In 2010, the population of Republican-held districts was equivalent to four extra districts. So basically they could keep the same number of districts but with increased margins.

So they’re the kind that doesn’t care about incumbent protection and is perfectly fine with unnecessarily drawing out members of their own party?

That is not what I meant.

If you have to reduce the number of districts in West Texas you are going to eliminate a Republican. Every other incumbent is going to be re-elected even if you switch the counties around. If they lose it will be because they lose in the primary to someone who is more familiar to the voters. Remember that representative is a part time job. If you are a farm implements dealer three counties over, you are going to have a hard time against the county judge in a county that decides to run for the House. So even if you keep every incumbent in separate districts, some are going to get beaten in the primary.

Take a look at HD-88, HD-68, and HD-83. HD-83 is mostly in Lubbock County (and for that matter, mostly in the city of Lubbock). The original plan would have included counties more to the west but that would have put a Lubbock incumbent against a representative from a more rural district.

Instead, they talked a representative from the eastern panhandle to run for RRC. This meant that his district could be dismantled with HD-88 and HD-68 taking up the remnants.

This avoided pairing an incumbent from HD-83 with an incumbent from HD-68.

The "incumbent" in HD-88 was from Plainview in Hale County. There were four candidates in the 2012 Republican primary - HD-88 was so modified that it could be considered an open seat. A challenger from Canadian in Hemphill County made the runoff, and won. If you look at the results the candidate from the "Panhandle Party" ran up big margins 80%+, while the  candidate from the "South Plains Party" ran up big margins there. The "Panhandle Party" had the advantage of smaller counties, where the voters were quite parochial. Voters in large cities like Pampa were more comfortable with an outsider. Perhaps because it was a larger town, you could actually campaign there, buying ads on the radio station, perhaps even during the all important livestock report each morning. The winner from Canadian is still the representative.

HD-105 was in Dallas County was drawn with the intent to pair two Republicans in a fair fight between Irving and Grand Prairie.

[I’m not Stu]

What happens to Sessions, Williams, Carter, and Granger?

[Coastal Elitist]

I made a map based off what jimrtex allocated and here's what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9c756ce4-d3e1-4873-a7c1-493191d9db78

Trump 86 Biden 64
Cornyn 88 Biden 62

There's some competitive district that democrats could flip but there's also some that Republicans could.

[jimrtex]

What happens to Sessions, Williams, Carter, and Granger?

Aren't they in Congress?

[jimrtex]

I made a map based off what jimrtex allocated and here's what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9c756ce4-d3e1-4873-a7c1-493191d9db78

Trump 86 Biden 64
Cornyn 88 Biden 62

There's some competitive district that democrats could flip but there's also some that Republicans could.

If you take the current population, Republicans represent 84.56 / 150 of the population, while Democrats represent 65.44 / 150 of the population. Thus there is an inherent bias to using 11 year old date (the current partisan breakdown is 84/66)

Republicans represent more larger and more smaller districts.

> 110%  R 20(24%) D 7(10%)
90% - 110%, R 45(54%) D 46(69%)
< 90%  R 18(22%), D 14(21%)

The 20 large (> 1.1) districts held by Republicans could be converted into 24.7 districts (a gain of +4.7)

The 7 large (> 1.1) districts held by Democrats could be converted into 8.7 districts (a gain +1.7)

The 18 small (<0.9) districts held by Republicans could be converted into 15.3 districts (a loss of -2.6)
The 14 small (<0.9) districts held by Democrats could be converted into 11.7 districts (a loss of -2.3)

The 45 middle (0.9 < x < 1.1) districts held by Republicans could be converted into 44.5 districts a loss of -0.5)
The 46 middle (0.9 < x < 1.1) districts held by Democrats could be converted into 45.0  districts a loss of -1.1)

[jimrtex]

This shows the rough draft of districts in Harris County.



A: The part to be added to Waller, Austin, and Fort Bend worked out quite well as it is along the Waller county line and places all of Waller ISD into a single district.

B,C: (Katy, Spring Branch) The boundary between the Katy and Spring Branch is on TX-6 a visible feature.

D,E,F: (Cy-Fair) The 3 Cy-Fair districts were divided along US 290, FM 1960, and TX 6, then tweaked a bit to balance population.

G,H: (Alief, Houston (part)) The Westside peninsula of Houston ISD was added to Alief ISD. Alief was split on Westpark providing a clean boundary.

I,J,K,L,M: Northwest (Tomball, Klein, Spring, Aldine, Houston (part) I'm not real happy with these districts. I brought the main Klein district down to FM 1960, but it still has the odd Klein panhandle.

I think I will change the Tomball-Klein split into more of an east-west split, and push the Klein district into Spring. I will eat the Klein panhandle into districts to the east. The Spring  ISD district will be more based on the Westfield portion of Spring ISD along with areas around the big airport (Bush Intercontinental - IAH).

I was reasonably content with the area in HISD added to the northwest since it is between two arms of Aldine ISD. But the two districts may have some racial problems - perhaps creating two districts that blacks might dominate based on higher turnout. These might end up split east-west.

N,O,P: Northeast (Humble, Sheldon, Galena Park, Channelview, Goose Creek (Baytown), Crosby, Hoffman). While these three districts roughly match ISD boundaries they are going to need quite a bit of adjustment and are collectively underpopulated by -3.7%. It doesn't make sense to hold the Houston ISD line so religiously.

Q,R,S: Southeast (Pasadena, Deer Park, La Porte, Clear Creek): I'm not happy at all with the Deer Park-Pasadena district. The next try will be Deer Park, La Porte, and eastern Clear Creek; and western Clear Creek and southern Pasadena along the Gulf Freeway.

T,U,V,W,X,Y; Houston ISD. 6 districts will be drawn in HISD in a radial fashion.

[Brittain33]

The upper house of the Texas assembly has released their proposed gerrymander. 19 Trump, 12 Biden districts. Look at those lines in and around Harris County.

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1439311132276183046?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

They…probably could have made a cleaner looking and more effective mander.

[Brittain33]

I am anticipating the first DRA recreation of this map so we can figure out how much risk they've taken. Martin Frost would find this map messy and corrupt-looking.

Edit: here it is!

https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1439313651974828034?s=20

[jimrtex]

I am anticipating the first DRA recreation of this map so we can figure out how much risk they've taken. Martin Frost would find this map messy and corrupt-looking.

Edit: here it is!

https://twitter.com/cacameronGOP/status/1439313651974828034?s=20

The block equivalency files are included. It should be possible to directly import into DRA.

While the overall deviation ranges is relatively small, it is pushed to the edges:

15 districts have a deviation greater than 20K.
12 districts have a deviation between 10K and 20K.
4 districts have a deviation between 0K and 10K.

[jimrtex]

This is a refined map.



In the northwest, the districts are more compact, with a bit less matching of school district boundaries.

In the northeast, the districts are equal in population, though a bit ungainly. They pretty much match school district lines.

In the southeast, the green district pretty much match the Pasadena city limits except for the southern peninsula. The orange district is pretty much a make up from leftovers, though it does have the Gulf Freeway as a theme.

I divided the remaining area of HISD into sectors. These need to be combined into 5 districts.

This would be:

East: Green, Tan, Pink. This would create a Black-Hispanic contest. The only obvious way to avoid this is to push these sectors outward completely scrambling the southeast and northeast areas.

South and Southwest: Purple, Green, Yellow, Purple. This will have enough for 2.550 districts, which will become three after nibbling at others.

West: Orange and Green. Enough for 1.316 districts. Will be one district after areas are trimmed.

Northwest: Red, Blue, Yellow. Enough for a bit more than one district.

[jimrtex]

This is a semi-final Harris map pending a demographic analysis.



I blew up the east part of the county, but in the end up with pretty compact Pasadena and Clear Lake districts. Crossing the San Jacinto River between Baytown and La Porte combines some areas that are remote from Houston.

[jimrtex]

I have replaced this message, See:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=458379.msg8297638#msg8297638

[jimrtex]

This is a presentation by the Texas State Demographer to the House Redistricting Committee.


Population Change and Redistricting in Texas(PDF)

Of particular interest are the maps on pages 14-21 which show the relative population of current Texas House Districts.

[jimrtex]

This shows the Dallas ISDs. Dallas along with Rockwall (0.555) are entitled to 14 seats.



The smaller cities in Dallas County are largely coincident with the corresponding school districts, so that using the school districts also preserve city boundaries.

Proto-Districts:

Carrolton-Farmers Branch and Coppell 0.956. The extra may come from the area between Richardson abd Carrollton, particularly the city of Addison.

Irving: 0.964. The city of Irving extends to the north, so the extra may come there.

Richardson: 1.231. The city of Richardson is in the extreme northeast corner of the ISD, so the portion detached with come from the south edge.

Garland and Rockwall County: 2.127. The city of Garland lies on the western edge of the ISD, so the portion of the ISD added to Rockwall will be east of the city, though perhaps the district will come into the city a bit.

Mesquite and Sunnyvale: 0.918. Garland and Rockwall plus Mesquite and Sunnyvale is entitled to 3.040, so this district will take its extra from Garland.

Grand Prairie and Cedar Hill: 0.899. This will permit the inclusion of the southern tip of the city of Grand Prairie in the district.

Duncanville, DeSoto, and Lancaster: 0.913. This district will come north into Dallas ISD.

Dallas and Highland Park: 5.999 districts. This is almost exactly right for 6 districts, but because of the borrowing and lending from the peripheral districts it won't be an exact match, but Dallas ISD will be a supermajority in all 6 districts. I will draw these based on geographic compactness, but may need to do some racial tuning.

[jimrtex]

This is the first pass at converting ISD's into house districts.



Irving ISD was augmented to the north giving it a cleaner border. This area is in the city of Irving. The city itself is larger than a house district, so it is reasonable to base the house district primarily on the ISD.

The Carrollton-Farmers Branch/Coppell district was extended east to include the portions of the cities of Carrollton and Farmers Branch that are in the northern tip of Dallas ISD. The original intent to also include the city of Addison in this district proved to be impossible. So instead Addison was added to the Richardson district, along with a tiny bit of the city of Dallas.

The city of Richardson is entirely in the Richardson district. The remnant of the ISD is in tan. This area is in the city of Dallas and better fits with the main body of the city of Dallas.

The cities of Rowlett and Sachse in Garland ISD were added to the Rockwall-based district along with a small portion of the city of Garland. A small area of Garland was also added to the Mesquite district to bring it up to the necessary population. The Garland district is still overpopulated. This surplus will be added to Dallas-based districts.

An area in southwest Dallas ISD was added to the Grand Prairie/Cedar Hill district, and areas in southern Dallas ISD were added to the Duncanville-DeSoto-Lancaster district to bring them up to the necessary population.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I made a map based off what jimrtex allocated and here's what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9c756ce4-d3e1-4873-a7c1-493191d9db78

Trump 86 Biden 64
Cornyn 88 Biden 62

There's some competitive district that democrats could flip but there's also some that Republicans could.

Bad
A nonpartisan map would either give Biden a majority of Districts won, or something very close to that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I made a map based off what jimrtex allocated and here's what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9c756ce4-d3e1-4873-a7c1-493191d9db78

Trump 86 Biden 64
Cornyn 88 Biden 62

There's some competitive district that democrats could flip but there's also some that Republicans could.

Bad
A nonpartisan map would either give Biden a majority of Districts won, or something very close to that.

lol

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I made a map based off what jimrtex allocated and here's what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9c756ce4-d3e1-4873-a7c1-493191d9db78

Trump 86 Biden 64
Cornyn 88 Biden 62

There's some competitive district that democrats could flip but there's also some that Republicans could.

Bad
A nonpartisan map would either give Biden a majority of Districts won, or something very close to that.

lol

Its called a geography bias. Texas geography strongly favors Democrats, as can clearly be seen by Biden coming 1 District short of tying the seat count in an existing Republican gerrymander. Maps ought to reflect the fact that geography works in such a direction. And no, I am not a hack on this topic who claims that geography somehow favors Democrats everywhere, as I am fully willing to admit that it can favor Republicans in some cases, including as examples, Illinois and Pennsylvania.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As it stands now it's gonna be a Red wave anyways, D's are gonna have 2005 seats in the H

[Brittain33]

This is a presentation by the Texas State Demographer to the House Redistricting Committee.


Population Change and Redistricting in Texas(PDF)

Of particular interest are the maps on pages 14-21 which show the relative population of current Texas House Districts.

Interesting that Zapata County was losing Hispanic population when it swung right.

[jimrtex]

This map divided Dallas ISD, along with Highland Park ISD, and the remnant portion of Richardson ISD into sectors with the intent to help in placement of the remaining six districts.



If race/ethnicity were not a consideration, then we could group into districts:

Northwest: Yellow, Red, Blue, White 1.063.
East: Green 1.041
Far East: Tan, Orange, Blue (surplus): 1.116

Collective surplus: 0.220

Southwest: Orange 0.830
South: Yellow, Blue 0.885
Southeast: Red, Pink 1.076

Collective deficit: -0.209

So instead I classified the precincts by Hispanic, Black, and Anglo share of the population.

[jimrtex]

I made a map based off what jimrtex allocated and here's what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/9c756ce4-d3e1-4873-a7c1-493191d9db78

Trump 86 Biden 64
Cornyn 88 Biden 62

There's some competitive district that democrats could flip but there's also some that Republicans could.

Bad
A nonpartisan map would either give Biden a majority of Districts won, or something very close to that.

I look forward to your example.

[jimrtex]

This is a presentation by the Texas State Demographer to the House Redistricting Committee.


Population Change and Redistricting in Texas(PDF)

Of particular interest are the maps on pages 14-21 which show the relative population of current Texas House Districts.

Interesting that Zapata County was losing Hispanic population when it swung right.

Based on census estimates 104 counties were estimated to lose population. Based on the census, 153 counties lost population. It may be that there was a systemic bias due to delays in conducting the census.