Texas House redistricting.

[jimrtex]

Houston Metro: Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, and Galveston. Portions of HD-22 (eastern Chambers and Galveston) and HD-26 (Austin County) not shown. HD-14 will be included in another map.



See previous message for Harris County districts (127-150)

 

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
16	29.3%	69.2%	36.2%	White 56.4%, Hispanic 30.0%, Black 6.1%, Other 4.1%, Asian 3.3%,
17	29.8%	68.8%	49.7%	White 68.6%, Hispanic 18.7%, Asian 4.8%, Other 4.2%, Black 3.6%,
18	25.7%	72.9%	42.8%	White 62.0%, Hispanic 24.3%, Black 6.8%, Other 4.0%, Asian 2.9%,
22	40.7%	57.8%	41.5%	White 53.1%, Hispanic 24.4%, Black 16.8%, Other 3.7%, Asian 2.0%,
23	31.1%	67.2%	47.5%	White 65.0%, Hispanic 20.1%, Black 6.1%, Asian 4.8%, Other 4.0%,
24	28.0%	70.4%	38.1%	White 54.4%, Hispanic 31.1%, Black 9.8%, Other 3.4%, Asian 1.4%,
25	50.5%	48.1%	45.2%	White 38.8%, Hispanic 25.0%, Black 19.5%, Asian 13.0%, Other 3.6%,
26	32.5%	66.2%	41.7%	White 49.5%, Hispanic 29.2%, Black 13.8%, Asian 4.3%, Other 3.2%,
27	55.4%	43.1%	39.4%	White 28.8%, Asian 28.0%, Hispanic 22.5%, Black 17.6%, Other 3.1%,
28	42.9%	55.6%	42.9%	White 42.2%, Hispanic 30.0%, Black 14.8%, Asian 9.8%, Other 3.3%,
29	54.6%	44.0%	46.9%	Asian 36.9%, White 31.5%, Hispanic 16.0%, Black 12.6%, Other 2.9%,
30	70.8%	27.9%	44.5%	Black 39.7%, Hispanic 21.9%, Asian 17.9%, White 17.8%, Other 2.6%,

For those keeping score at home, that is 19B and 17T.

[jimrtex]

Jefferson ISD's



Jefferson is entitled to 1.320 districts. One district will be wholly within the county, and Jefferson will be joined with Hardin and Orange for a second district.

County	Population	Share
Hardin	56231	0.289
Orange	84808	0.436
Jefferson	256526	1.320
Total	397565	2.046

Jefferson will be roughly 1/3 of the cross-county district.
 

County	Population	Share
Hardin	56231	0.289
Orange	84808	0.436
Jefferson	57744	0.297
Total	198783	1.023

[jimrtex]

Jefferson Layout



The Jefferson County district will include Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Sabine Pasadena ISD's, while the cross-county district is based on Nederland and Port Neches-Groves ISD's along with some or all of Hardin-Jefferson and Hamshire-Fannett ISD's.

Sabine Pass is in the city of Port Arthur as is the portion of Port Neches-Groves indicated as being part of the district (the precinct lines in this case follow the city limits). There may be VRA implications in this district.

Because the remainder of the district includes both Hardin and Orange, the cross-border district need not include sections that are contiguous within Jefferson County.

The connection between Port Arthur and Beaumont is tenuous so that may be augmented in the final districts. Because, the final districts will average +2.3% deviation, there will have to be more shifted to bring the districts within acceptable limits.

[jimrtex]

Jefferson Final



To equalize population, I moved all of Hamshire-Fannett ISD into the Beaumont-Port Arthur district. There was a significant Black precinct here. Much of the area is marshes or areas only suitable for running cattle. The people who live here may work in Beaumont or Port Arthur and want to have a bit of land and live in the country.

This map would never be accepted by the Texas House. Speaker Dade Phelan lives in west Beaumont. If you look at the passed map with the city overlay, you can figure out where he lives. The passed map does include Hardin, and so to get to Orange southeast of Port Arthur must go via Lake Sabine. The other district is also underpopulated (-4.3%) to allow for the loss of the area in Beaumont.

[jimrtex]

Jefferson Demographics




Jefferson-Orange-Hardin HD-20

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
20	16.6%	82.1%	45.1%	White 78.8%, Hispanic 9.0%, Black 6.7%, Other 3.5%, Asian 2.0%,
21	60.0%	38.9%	34.5%	Black 40.2%, White 31.4%, Hispanic 21.9%, Asian 3.9%, Other 2.5%,

This is the only Biden district in East Texas. It lurches 6 points to the right as the district takes in more of Jefferson County. Jefferson has been gradually losing its second district over the past several decades. Were it a single district it would be a Trump district (50.2% to 48.6%)

[jimrtex]

DFW Metro, four main counties of Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton, plus Rockwall. Portions of HD-2 and HD-61 which include Hunt and Wise counties not shown.

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
2	27.1%	71.3%	40.9%	White 66.6%, Hispanic 18.1%, Black 8.2%, Other 5.2%, Asian 1.8%,
7	37.0%	61.5%	49.4%	White 60.6%, Hispanic 17.3%, Black 10.6%, Asian 7.1%, Other 4.4%,
61	23.3%	75.3%	49.0%	White 74.7%, Hispanic 15.3%, Other 5.0%, Black 2.8%, Asian 2.3%,
62	47.4%	51.3%	45.1%	White 53.4%, Hispanic 15.0%, Asian 13.6%, Black 13.2%, Other 4.8%,
63	49.1%	48.9%	45.1%	White 60.3%, Hispanic 20.8%, Black 9.8%, Other 4.8%, Asian 4.3%,
64	53.7%	44.8%	44.0%	White 45.2%, Hispanic 19.6%, Asian 16.7%, Black 14.1%, Other 4.4%,
65	43.3%	55.1%	47.8%	White 58.3%, Hispanic 19.0%, Asian 9.9%, Black 8.5%, Other 4.2%,
66	44.6%	53.4%	47.8%	White 57.1%, Asian 15.1%, Hispanic 14.0%, Black 9.5%, Other 4.4%,
67	44.1%	53.9%	46.9%	White 58.3%, Hispanic 15.3%, Black 11.4%, Asian 10.5%, Other 4.5%,
68	44.4%	54.0%	45.0%	White 52.5%, Asian 21.6%, Hispanic 11.9%, Black 9.4%, Other 4.5%,
69	53.8%	44.6%	47.4%	White 49.7%, Asian 25.6%, Hispanic 10.6%, Black 10.1%, Other 4.0%,
70	54.9%	43.2%	45.7%	White 49.3%, Asian 19.7%, Hispanic 17.1%, Black 9.7%, Other 4.1%,
103	56.8%	41.6%	41.4%	White 44.7%, Black 23.7%, Hispanic 23.1%, Asian 4.8%, Other 3.8%,
104	39.3%	58.9%	40.7%	White 55.0%, Hispanic 23.3%, Black 10.1%, Asian 7.0%, Other 4.6%,
105	38.0%	60.2%	40.8%	White 59.1%, Hispanic 24.2%, Black 6.9%, Asian 5.2%, Other 4.7%,
106	52.3%	46.4%	44.6%	White 45.0%, Black 24.0%, Hispanic 18.3%, Asian 8.3%, Other 4.4%,
107	43.4%	54.8%	49.0%	White 61.1%, Hispanic 15.6%, Asian 9.2%, Black 9.0%, Other 5.2%,
108	38.6%	59.8%	50.1%	White 64.7%, Hispanic 14.2%, Asian 9.8%, Black 6.6%, Other 4.7%,
109	65.9%	32.7%	28.2%	Hispanic 35.9%, Black 28.1%, White 23.6%, Asian 8.9%, Other 3.4%,
110	49.7%	48.7%	43.0%	White 51.1%, Hispanic 20.1%, Black 16.9%, Asian 7.7%, Other 4.2%,
111	41.3%	56.9%	43.9%	White 64.1%, Hispanic 19.4%, Black 9.5%, Other 4.5%, Asian 2.6%,
112	73.5%	25.2%	30.0%	Black 38.6%, Hispanic 33.3%, White 21.2%, Asian 3.8%, Other 3.1%,
113	66.7%	31.5%	22.9%	Hispanic 63.7%, White 23.1%, Black 9.2%, Other 2.0%, Asian 1.9%,
114	82.6%	16.4%	40.7%	Black 58.4%, Hispanic 24.8%, White 13.2%, Other 2.6%, Asian 1.1%,
115	68.2%	30.4%	35.4%	Hispanic 43.1%, Black 27.9%, White 21.5%, Asian 4.4%, Other 3.0%,
116	57.8%	40.6%	39.0%	White 36.5%, Asian 26.2%, Hispanic 25.1%, Black 8.9%, Other 3.3%,
117	59.1%	39.6%	31.3%	Hispanic 40.5%, White 30.0%, Black 22.6%, Asian 4.1%, Other 2.9%,
118	60.3%	38.3%	26.3%	Hispanic 46.5%, White 24.7%, Asian 13.0%, Black 12.9%, Other 2.9%,
119	58.3%	39.9%	41.2%	White 49.5%, Hispanic 23.9%, Black 13.6%, Asian 9.1%, Other 3.9%,
120	57.9%	40.7%	32.4%	Hispanic 39.1%, White 29.6%, Black 14.5%, Asian 13.9%, Other 2.9%,
121	63.5%	34.7%	39.3%	White 46.5%, Black 22.2%, Hispanic 21.5%, Asian 6.2%, Other 3.7%,
122	53.2%	45.5%	58.3%	White 72.5%, Hispanic 13.0%, Asian 5.6%, Black 5.2%, Other 3.7%,
123	73.5%	25.0%	23.8%	Hispanic 60.0%, Black 20.4%, White 16.0%, Other 2.0%, Asian 1.5%,
124	79.0%	19.5%	34.1%	Hispanic 48.1%, White 25.6%, Black 21.5%, Other 2.9%, Asian 2.0%,
125	77.3%	21.3%	23.6%	Hispanic 65.8%, White 16.4%, Black 12.9%, Asian 2.9%, Other 2.0%,
126	85.2%	13.6%	26.0%	Black 47.5%, Hispanic 39.0%, White 10.8%, Other 2.3%, Asian 0.5%,

This is 23B, 13T. Including Houston Metro, that makes it 42B, 30T.

[jimrtex]

Hays ISD's.



Hays is entitled to 1.241 districts. It is paired with Comal to create a second district.

County	Population	Share
Hays	241067	1.241
Comal	161501	0.831
Total	402568	2.072

About 1/6 of Hays County will be joined with Comal in the second district.

County	Population	Share
Hays	39783	0.205
Comal	161501	0.831
Total	201284	1.036

[jimrtex]

Hays Layout



Hays Consolidated and San Marcos ISD's have enough population for a district, but because the two districts need a population a bit on the high side (1.036) some more will be added to the district.

[jimrtex]

Hays Final



A few precincts from the Dripping Springs ISD were added to bring the districts to equality. The current representative from Hays is from Dripping Springs and there were complaints that she was carved out of her district. The only alternative way would be divide up San Marcos. The cities of Kyle in the north and San Marcos in the south abut one another.

[jimrtex]

Hays Demographics




Hays-Comal HD-48

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
48	30.9%	67.6%	56.9%	White 71.1%, Hispanic 21.6%, Other 4.2%, Black 1.9%, Asian 1.1%,
49	58.2%	39.6%	41.7%	White 47.7%, Hispanic 39.9%, Other 5.3%, Black 4.7%, Asian 2.4%,

Only 28% difference between the two.

[jimrtex]

Brazos ISD's.



Brazos is entitled to 1.204 districts. Brazos will be joined with Burleson, Grimes, Lee, Milam, Montgomery, and Washington to elect five representatives. Three districts will be wholly in Montgomery, one will be wholly in Brazos, and the final district will combine five whole counties with small portions of Brazos and Montgomery.

County	Population	Share
Brazos	233849	1.204
Burleson	17642	0.091
Grimes	29268	0.151
Lee	17478	0.090
Milam	24754	0.127
Montgomery	620443	3.193
Washington	35805	0.184
Total	979239	5.040

The Montgomery and Brazos portions of the cross-county district are relatively small.
 

County	Population	Share
Brazos	38001	0.196
Burleson	17642	0.091
Grimes	29268	0.151
Lee	17478	0.090
Milam	24754	0.127
Montgomery	32900	0.169
Washington	35805	0.184
Total	195848	1.008

[jimrtex]

Brazos Layout



College Station and Bryan ISD's dominate the county, so leaving them together doesn't really help delineating the Brazos district. So we also show the cities of Bryan and College Station and the population of BISD and CSISD which are outside the cities. Brazos County VTD's match city limits to a closer degree than any other city.



The cities of Bryan and College Station have a bit more than enough for a district, so we will need to trim some off.

[jimrtex]

Brazos Final



We trim off the less compact extensions around the A&M airport which is actually west of the city of Bryan. College Station is so-named because it was a railroad station where students could get off the train and walk to the A&M campus. The airport now has daily air service to IAH and DFW, so visitors to TAMU can fly, rather than flying to Houston and driving (about 1.5 hours). Areas around Lake Bryan which had enclaves was also removed.

[jimrtex]

Brazos Demographics




Brazos, Montgomery, etc. HD-14


 

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
14	22.4%	76.4%	48.1%	White 67.8%, Hispanic 18.4%, Black 9.4%, Other 3.6%, Asian 0.9%,
15	45.5%	51.8%	34.3%	White 54.7%, Hispanic 24.0%, Black 9.9%, Asian 7.9%, Other 3.6%,

The A&M district is remarkably close. The influence of students is seen in the low turnout (students may vote at home, but will be enumerated at college) and the significant Asian population.

[jimrtex]

Who was trying to hit the center of the target with their arrows? And who had driven down to the target and placed the arrows as close to the edges as possible?




Standard Deviation: 3.60%; |deviation| < 1% 18; |deviation| > 4% 69.




Standard Deviation: 1.72%; |deviation| < 1% 88; |deviation| > 4% 7.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

So how many Biden seats did you get in total?

[jimrtex]

So how many Biden seats did you get in total?

76

[jimrtex]

Smith ISD's



Smith is entitled to 1.202 representatives. One district is wholly within the county. It is joined with Gregg and Upshur counties to form a second district.

County	Population	Share
Smith	233479	1.202
Gregg	124239	0.639
Upshur	40892	0.210
Total	398610	2.051

The second district will be mostly outside Smith.

County	Population	Share
Smith	34174	0.176
Gregg	124239	0.639
Upshur	40892	0.210
Total	199305	1.026

[jimrtex]

Smith Layout.



The Smith district will be based on the city of Tyler. We choose the (surplus) area of Smith to be attached to the Longview-based cross-county district.

We start with Gladewater ISD (the city of Gladewater is in Gregg), and add its only real neighbor of Winona ISD.

The next candidates are Lindale ISD to the west or Chapel Hill ISD to the south. LISD produces a notable panhandle to the district, but CHISD has closer ties to Tyler. The favored growth direction for Tyler is to the south, and particularly to the southeast, and the city has expanded into both the Whitehouse and Chapel Hill ISD's. The UT-Tyler campus is in CHISD.

Lindale is on I-20 which actually bypasses Tyler by 11 miles. So the interstate provides a direct connection to Longview from Lindale. Adding CHISD to the Tyler-based district produces a compact district in the southern portion of Smith County.

Smith Final

No adjustments were need to this map, so this is also the final map for Smith.

[jimrtex]

Smith Demographics




Smith-Gregg-Upshur HD-4

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
14	22.4%	76.4%	48.1%	White 67.8%, Hispanic 18.4%, Black 9.4%, Other 3.6%, Asian 0.9%,
15	45.5%	51.8%	34.3%	White 54.7%, Hispanic 24.0%, Black 9.9%, Asian 7.9%, Other 3.6%,

I'm surprised at the partisan difference between the two districts, as Truman was the last Democrat to carry Smith County.

[jimrtex]

Bell Tweaks.

Because I kept the Kaufman-Van Zandt district with a positive deviation of +5.43%, I had to limit the negative deviation to about -4.6% to keep the range close to 10.0%.

The Huntermander has 14 of 150 districts with a absolute deviation greater than 4.9%, including four districts with 4.99% absolute deviation. Typical conniving lawyerly effort.

Bell and Brazoria counties were entitled to 1.915 and 1.908 districts, which means that if they were perfectly divided into districts, they would have deviations of -4.62% and -4.27% respectively.

To meet these targets requires dividing of VTD's (in a better world, more VTD's would be divided because the current delineations don't match ISD and city boundaries).

Bell County required an almost equal split, and transfer of about 1000 persons from HD-55 (Killeen) to HD-54 Temple-Belton. Harker Heights is already divided, and so the extra population is also in Harker Heights.

The shift is in the red circle below, it is that Italy-shaped peninsula hanging down.



The Census Blocks that were moved into HD-54 are highlighted on the map below.



The area is south of FM 2410 (Knight's Way) between Cedar Knob Road and Comanche Gap Road. The subdivision on the left is Evergreen Estates, which was mostly developed over the past decade. There may be some active construction and new streets being added.

The subdivision on the right was built probably around 1980. The streets are named after minerals (e.g. Limestone, Granite, Quartz, Marble). The odd shaped block along Comanche Gap picks up some houses on the outside of the enclosed blocks.

The block between the two subdivisions is an extension of a much larger block with a population of 811. This suggests an apartment complex, but I can't find one on aerial photos.

[jimrtex]

Brazoria Tweaks

Because I kept the Kaufman-Van Zandt district with a positive deviation of +5.43%, I had to limit the negative deviation to about -4.6% to keep the range close to 10.0.

HD-25 in Brazoria County has a deviation of -4.9%. While this is within the -5.0% limit, it would result in a a deviation range greater than 10.0%. The other district in Brazoria County, HD-24, has a deviation of -3.6%. Equalizing the populations of the district will result in deviations around -4.2%.

The area shifted is the triangular area highlighted by the red ellipse.



The triangular area is bounded on the north by the where the Pearland fence lines abut the Alvin fence line!, on the east by where the Manvel fence lines abut the Alvin Fence Line!, and on the south by Alvin Road which runs parallel to the ATSF railroad tracks and TX 6.

Parts of the area is in the city of Iowa Colony which was founded by an immigration company organized in a city to the northeast of Winterset. At one time, I am sure that Iowa Colony had more city limit signs than residents.



Before the change there was a 2453 person difference between the two districts. With the shift, the difference is 201. Deviation for the districts is -4.21% and -4.32%.

[jimrtex]

The final deviation range for my map is 10.06% vs. 9.99% for the approved map.

The standard deviation for my map is 1.73%, 3.60% for the approved map.

The 10.0% standard is considered a burden shifting threshold.

My plan slightly exceeds this threshold. The justification is that my plan conforms to the Texas Constitution requirement that counties with a population less than the quota should not be divided, while better adhering to the directive in the Texas Constitution

The members of the House of Representatives shall be apportioned among the several counties, according to the number of population in each, as nearly as may be, on a ratio obtained by dividing the population of the State, as ascertained by the most recent United States census, by the number of members of which the House is composed; provided, that whenever a single county has sufficient population to be entitled to a Representative, such county shall be formed into a separate Representative District, and when two or more counties are required to make up the ratio of representation, such counties shall be contiguous to each other; and when any one county has more than sufficient population to be entitled to one or more Representatives, such Representative or Representatives shall be apportioned to such county, and for any surplus of population it may be joined in a Representative District with any other contiguous county or counties.

[jimrtex]

DRA Link

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

DRA Link

Thank you for your hard work! This has been fun, seeing you do your magic.