Texas House redistricting.

[jimrtex]

Fort Bend Alignment.



Fort Bend ISD (FBISD) and Stafford MSD (SMSD) have enough for two districts and half of a third. Lamar Consolidated ISD (LCISD) has about enough for one district. Katy ISD (KISD) has enough to form the core of the fourth district but will need to expand some.

If KISD expands into LCISD, perhaps into Fulshear or south of FM 1093, then LCISD will need to expand into FBISD.

We also have defined the Fort Bend portion of HD-26, from Brazos and Needville ISDs and four rural VTD's of LCISD in the Simonton and Kendelton areas, but this district is still short by about 25,000 and we would prefer more exurban areas,

[jimrtex]

Fort Bend Final.



I started in the south of FBISD aligning districts with city limits. The southernmost district is Missouri City and the larger portion of Houston in Fort Bend.

The next district is Sugar Land and Stafford and a bit more to the north. Sugar Land has annexed Greatwood and other areas along the Southwest Freeway (US 59/I-69) west of the Brazos River. This comes from LSISD leaving it further short of a whole district.

I added territory in Pecan Grove from SBISD which is close to Richmond and generally outside the Grand Parkway (TX-99). This meant that the Katy district would take in the remnant of FBISD in the Mission Bend area and other areas immediately south of Cinco Ranch.

To complete HD-26 I took the area that was in the city of Katy. The district already included the Harris and Waller portions of the city. The city is not very large and retains aspects of a farm community engulfed by the big city, rather than the suburban sprawl of the school district.

[jimrtex]

Fort Bend District Numbers




HD-26 (Harris, Waller, Austin, Fort Bend)



Not too awful looking and the Harris and Fort Bend portions are not too out of character with the Waller and Austin counties which are clearly exurban.


When completing HD-26 in Fort Bend, I realized that I had over populated the Harris County portion. The district did not have much larger population than its neighbors in Houston, but was notably above that of the Fort Bend districts. I tweaked the three districts in Cy-Fair ISD to get better overall population balance.






 

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
26	32.5%	66.2%	41.7%	White 49.5%, Hispanic 29.2%, Black 13.8%, Asian 4.3%, Other 3.2%,
27	55.4%	43.1%	39.4%	White 28.8%, Asian 28.0%, Hispanic 22.5%, Black 17.6%, Other 3.1%,
28	42.9%	55.6%	42.9%	White 42.2%, Hispanic 30.0%, Black 14.8%, Asian 9.8%, Other 3.3%,
29	54.6%	44.0%	46.9%	Asian 36.9%, White 31.5%, Hispanic 16.0%, Black 12.6%, Other 2.9%,
30	70.8%	27.9%	44.5%	Black 39.7%, Hispanic 21.9%, Asian 17.9%, White 17.8%, Other 2.6%,

Three of the Fort Bend districts are Biden districts. HD-30 is as black as the districts in Houston. HD-29 is the highest percentage Asian of any district in the state, and HD-27 is plurality Asian.

[Tekken_Guy]

Would Texas Republicans have conceded a seat to Candace Valenzuela had she won her race?

[jimrtex]

Montgomery ISDs



Montgomery is entitled to 3.193 representatives. It it were apportioned three, the districts would have a deviation of 6.4%.

So instead Montgomery is combined with Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Lee, Milam, and Washington to form five districts, three entirely within Montgomery, one entirely within Brazos, and one containing the five smaller counties and small surplus populations of Brazos and Montgomery.

County	Population	Share
Montgomery	620443	3.193
Brazos	233849	1.204
Burleson	17642	0.091
Grimes	29268	0.151
Lee	17478	0.090
Milam	24754	0.127
Washington	35805	0.184
Total	979239	5.040

The shared seat.

County	Population	Share
Montgomery	32900	0.169
Brazos	38001	0.196
Burleson	17642	0.091
Grimes	29268	0.151
Lee	17478	0.090
Milam	24754	0.127
Washington	35805	0.184
Toral	195848	1.008

The surplus areas of Montgomery and Brazos are comparable to the other counties.

[jimrtex]

The surplus from Montgomery must be on the Grimes line. We will use the small portion of Richards ISD and much of Montgomery ISD in the northwestern part of the county.

Conroe ISD, which serves both the city of Conroe and The Woodlands and areas to their east dominates the center of the district but doesn't have enough population to form two districts. Moreover, the population of Willis ISD in the north; Magnolia and Tomball ISD's in the southwest; and New Caney and Splendora ISD's in the southeast are far from sufficient to form a single district.

We will divide Conroe ISD among these three areas. To assist in this division, we divide Conroe ISD among The Woodlands, the city of Conroe, and the remainder of the district (generally areas of Caney Creek, Oak Ridge, and Grand Oaks HS).

The city of Conroe extends into Montgomery and Willis ISD's and we include those areas in the city of Conroe.



We rough out three districts:

(1) Southwest: Magnolia and Tomball ISD's, and The Woodland.

(2) North: Willis ISD and the city of Conroe.

(3) Southeast: New Caney and Splendora ISD's and the remnant of the Conroe ISD. For now this includes an area west of Conroe.



We will balance the populations by adding areas immediately east of The Woodlands to the southwest district, and areas closer to the city of Conroe to the northern district.

[jimrtex]

These are the final districts.



The surplus area is slightly overpopulated but there are not easy changes given the size and shape of the election precincts.

The southeastern district combines areas along I-69 (Northtex Freeway) and I-45 (North Freeway), but the most recently completed section of the Grand Parkway (TX-99) crosses this area between the two freeways.

[jimrtex]

Montgomery Demographics

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
16	29.3%	69.2%	36.2%	White 56.4%, Hispanic 30.0%, Black 6.1%, Other 4.1%, Asian 3.3%,
17	29.8%	68.8%	49.7%	White 68.6%, Hispanic 18.7%, Asian 4.8%, Other 4.2%, Black 3.6%,
18	25.7%	72.9%	42.8%	White 62.0%, Hispanic 24.3%, Black 6.8%, Other 4.0%, Asian 2.9%,

Three Trump districts.

[jimrtex]

Williamson ISD's.



Williamson is entitled to 3.134 districts. It can be divided into 3 districts with a deviation of 4.5%. Because of the large deviation, population equality will be critical.

The population is concentrated in the Round Rock and Leander ISD's, including the cities of Austin, Round Rock, Leander, and Cedar Park.

Growth is just beginning to reach Liberty Hill, Georgetown, Hutto, and Taylor ISD's.

[jimrtex]

Williamson layout.



Round Rock ISD and Leander ISD each have the population for about one district, which we will have to balance and refine to match city limits. RRISD is largely the cities of Round Rock and Austin (in Williamson), while LISD is largely the cities of Cedar Park and Leander.

The remainder of the county is entitled to somewhat more than a district. It will have to give up population, likely in the Liberty Hill area where the precincts don't match the ISD boundaries very well.

Remember the target population for the districts is 1.045.

[jimrtex]

Williamson Final.



It took some effort to get all three districts below 5.0% deviation.

Major changes were extending the Leander district out into Liberty Hill, and moving Brushy Creek CDP from the Round Rock district into the Leander district. Brushy Creek is quite large (22K+ in 2020) and for some reason has not been annexed into Austin, Cedar Park or Round Rock.

Minor twitches were made to better conform to city limits, though a better job could be done with a finer tool than VTD's. City limits are quite irregular in the area.

[jimrtex]

Williamson Demographics

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
51	41.0%	57.0%	50.9%	White 63.6%, Hispanic 23.3%, Black 6.0%, Other 4.0%, Asian 3.0%,
52	48.5%	49.0%	48.0%	White 62.7%, Hispanic 17.6%, Asian 10.7%, Other 4.8%, Black 4.2%,
53	60.9%	36.7%	42.6%	White 50.6%, Hispanic 24.1%, Asian 12.0%, Black 8.6%, Other 4.7%,

It is remarkable the difference between HD-52 and HD-53. Placing Brushy Creek in HD-52 likely flipped HD-52 while packing HD-53 with Democrats.

[jimrtex]

Cameron ISD's.



Cameron is entitled to 2.167 districts. With two districts that would be an unacceptable 8.3% deviation. So instead Cameron is joined with Hidalgo and Starr to create 7 districts.

County	Population	Share
Cameron	421017	2.167
Hidalgo	870781	4.482
Starr	65920	0.339
Total	1357718	6.988
Per District	193960	0.998

Four districts will be wholly in Hidalgo, two districts wholly in Cameron, and one district including all of Starr, part of Hidalgo, and a small part of Cameron.

County	Population	Share
Cameron	33098	0.170
Hidalgo	94942	0.489
Starr	65920	0.339
Total	193960	0.998

With a large share of the district in Starr, the Hidalgo portion is mostly from La Joya ISD, but includes a connection across sparsely populated Hidalgo to reach the northwest corner of Cameron.

[jimrtex]

Cameron Layout



The layout based on ISD's is almost perfect, but I plan to make some adjustments.

Brownsville ISD and Point Isabel ISD are enough for a district, but the city of Brownsville extends far northward into Los Fresnos ISD. All the students in the district are in the far southern part of the district.

Harlingen ISD and San Benito ISD are a good fit, but don't have enough for a district, so that Los Fresnos was added in to make up the numbers.

The ISD's for the cross-county district were just the least populous, but there are areas in the northwest portion of Harlingen ISD that are not in the city of Harlingen, while the city of Rio Hondo is east of Harlingen.

[jimrtex]

Cameron Final



This map puts more of the built-up area of Brownsville in the Brownsville district, and consolidates the area in the cross-county district more in the northeast outside the city of Harlingen. There would be a bit more population balance if the city limits conformed to VTD's more precisely.

[jimrtex]

Cameron Demographics




HD-38

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
38	52.5%	46.5%	24.5%	Hispanic 92.0%, White 7.1%, Other 0.5%, Asian 0.2%, Black 0.1%,
39	52.0%	46.9%	28.0%	Hispanic 83.1%, White 14.6%, Other 0.9%, Asian 0.8%, Black 0.5%,
40	61.7%	37.2%	25.9%	Hispanic 93.3%, White 5.3%, Asian 0.6%, Other 0.5%, Black 0.2%,

Two districts almost competitive.

I may still redo the cross-county districts in south Texas.

[jimrtex]

Brazoria ISD's



Brazoria is entitled to 1.915 districts. Both can be in the county with a -4.3% deviation. Because of the size of the deviation, the two districts will be nearly equal in population.

[jimrtex]

Brazoria Layout



The two northern ISD's, Pearland and Alvin have somewhat more than needed for a district. We will have to trim some of the Alvin ISD.

[jimrtex]

Brazoria Final



The city of Alvin is trimmed off the northern district, leaving the portion of Pearland and Manvel that are in the Alvin ISD in the northern district.

[jimrtex]

Brazoria Demographics

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
24	28.0%	70.4%	38.1%	White 54.4%, Hispanic 31.1%, Black 9.8%, Other 3.4%, Asian 1.4%,
25	50.5%	48.1%	45.2%	White 38.8%, Hispanic 25.0%, Black 19.5%, Asian 13.0%, Other 3.6%,

22% swing between the two districts.

[jimrtex]

Bell ISD's.



Bell is entitled to 1.908 districts. This can be realized as two districts with -4.6% deviation.

[jimrtex]

Bell Layout.



Killeen ISD has more than enough for a single district, especially since the target for the two districts is 0.954. We will trim the district as much as possible to the city of Killeen.

[jimrtex]

Bell Final.



The city of Harker Heights was excised from the Killeen district. This leaves the Temple-based district slightly out of range. Switching any other VTD would make it worse. With an exacto knife I could match the city limits and get the districts within -5.0%.

[jimrtex]

Bell Demographics

District	Biden	Trump	Voters	VAP
54	33.1%	64.9%	39.9%	White 60.4%, Hispanic 21.1%, Black 11.2%, Other 5.1%, Asian 2.2%,
55	60.3%	37.2%	29.0%	Black 31.8%, White 31.7%, Hispanic 23.9%, Other 8.1%, Asian 4.5%,

HD-55 is dominated by Fort Hood, which is reflected in the high black percentage due to Army personnel. As shown by the voting percentage to total population, many do not vote or may vote elsewhere.

[jimrtex]

Nueces ISD's



This is the first of ten counties entitled to one district and part of a second.

Nueces is entitled to 1.818 districts. It is paired with Aransas and Refugio to complete the second district.

County	Population Share
Nueces	353178	1.818
Aransas	23830	0.123
Refugio	6741	0.035
Total	383749	1.975

The distribution for the cross-county seat is:

County	Population Share
Nueces	161304	0.830
Aransas	23830	0.123
Refugio	6741	0.035
Total	191875	0.987