My model is still deep in the "work-in-progress" category, but here's what it has to say about Virginia and New Jersey at this point:
New Jersey
Murphy: 1,173,296
Ciattarelli: 912,662
Virginia
McAuliffe: 1,572,239
Youngkin: 1,332,830
Model is 100.00% (rounded to nearest 0.01%) confident of both Murphy and McAuliffe wins.
These predictions (along with updated numbers every couple weeks) will be evaluated after the election for accuracy.
Very nice! Do you have plans to take into consideration the Virginia Raw Early Voting Numbers for your Enthusiasm factor?
Not this time around. I don't want to incorporate too many new things at once because if something ends up being very wrong and it can be difficult to track down which thing I changed was responsible for it.