2021 Gubernatorial Predictions

[Schiff for Senate]

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

[Schiff for Senate]

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

[Schiff for Senate]

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

Updated Predictions (more will come in November):

VA: McAuliffe+7.2
NJ: Murphy+12.0

[Schiff for Senate]

FINAL 2021 GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS FOR CENTRISTREPUBLICAN

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

Updated Predictions (more will come in November):

VA: McAuliffe+7.2
NJ: Murphy+12.0

I know I said my final predictions would be in November, but it seemed weak to me to wait until right before the election when the outcome is more obvious. So on Friday, October 29, the better part of a week before the election, I am determining my final predictions. They are, to the nearest tenth of a point, as follows:

VA: McAuliffe+5.8 (I know this is more mild than my past 7.2 predictions, but having reviewed recent polling, I'm thinking the race is more competitive than that, though not nearly as competitive as most think)
NJ: Murphy+9.0 (Again, same logic as VA - I know this is a decline from my 12-point prediction, but I feel this is more likely)

[Schiff for Senate]

VA: Youngkin + 0.7

Youngkin ain't winning. Polls have been wrong before; see MI, WI and PA in 2016 and 2020 for just six examples. VA is much too blue to elect a flip-flopping conservative as governor, even if by just 0.7%. My 5.8% McAuliffe win may be an exaggeration but it's much likelier to come true than a Youngkin win. You will see in a few days once the results are in (though they probably won't all come in on election night).

[Schiff for Senate]

FINAL 2021 GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS FOR CENTRISTREPUBLICAN

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.



EDIT: I accidentally edited this (clicked the modify button instead of the quote one). I am undoing the edit and replacing it with this message.

Updated Predictions (more will come in November):

VA: McAuliffe+7.2
NJ: Murphy+12.0

I know I said my final predictions would be in November, but it seemed weak to me to wait until right before the election when the outcome is more obvious. So on Friday, October 29, the better part of a week before the election, I am determining my final predictions. They are, to the nearest tenth of a point, as follows:

VA: McAuliffe+5.8 (I know this is more mild than my past 7.2 predictions, but having reviewed recent polling, I'm thinking the race is more competitive than that, though not nearly as competitive as most think)
NJ: Murphy+9.0 (Again, same logic as VA - I know this is a decline from my 12-point prediction, but I feel this is more likely)

Okay, I was way off. But as I explained to Matty:

Because VA was a Biden+10 state and I figured polarization was way too strong for a GOP win even if Biden was unpopular. I suppose I also underestimated Biden's unpopularity, but to be fair the only point of comparison we had was the recall in our common state, which we both know was great for Democrats (well, not considering the partisan lean of CA, but considering polling and predictions that it'd be competitive). I didn't think McAuliffe was that bad a candidate - he seemed to me experienced and uncontroversial, actually - and while I thought Youngkin had a good campaign, I figured polarization would win the day. And yes, more polarized states have opposite-party governors, but let's look at them one-by-one. Hogan, Baker and Scott are all anti-Trump and very moderate (I'd call Baker and Scott centrists). Sununu is more libertarian and a good fit for NH, which didn't support Biden by as much as VA did. In contrast to these people, Youngkin is a mainstream Republican except slightly quieter in his support for Trump (to win votes, though it was clear he was pro-Trump even if he didn't explicitly say it or invoke Trump's name). AL, KY, LA don't compare. In LA ancestral Democrats supported a popular and very moderate Democrat in his bid for reelection by enough for him to narrowly win...Youngkin had none of these advantages. In KY (which incidentally borders VA), it was because Bevin was exceedingly unpopular, and even then Beshear barely won, and did so with the support of ancestral registered Democrats in places like Elliott County who backed Trump the following year (basically, similar to LA). I'm shocked you're even bringing AL into this...it hardly compares. Moore would've won comfortably if not for the fact that he was totally scandal-tainted, and Jones was a good candidate (I imagine Moore might've still won if his opponent was a progressive or something). So, yes, while I was wrong, I still feel I was justified in making the predictions I made. I was right that the polls were underestimating a party: My only mistake was thinking polls were underestimating Democrats, when they largely underestimated Republicans.

Ironically, this turned out to be an underestimation of the GOP:

VA: Youngkin + 0.7

Youngkin ain't winning. Polls have been wrong before; see MI, WI and PA in 2016 and 2020 for just six examples. VA is much too blue to elect a flip-flopping conservative as governor, even if by just 0.7%. My 5.8% McAuliffe win may be an exaggeration but it's much likelier to come true than a Youngkin win. You will see in a few days once the results are in (though they probably won't all come in on election night).

Polling in Virginia gubernatorial elections tends to favor the incumbent president's party, with an average over several statewide elections of polling being off by about 2 points to the left

My only defense is that I was right in everything I said: the polls were wrong and largely underestimated a party. The only mistake I made was thinking the Democrats were being underestimated, not the GOP. Oh, well.