Youngkin ain't winning. Polls have been wrong before; see MI, WI and PA in 2016 and 2020 for just six examples. VA is much too blue to elect a flip-flopping conservative as governor, even if by just 0.7%. My 5.8% McAuliffe win may be an exaggeration but it's much likelier to come true than a Youngkin win. You will see in a few days once the results are in (though they probably won't all come in on election night).
Polling in Virginia gubernatorial elections tends to favor the incumbent president's party, with an average over several statewide elections of polling being off by about 2 points to the left
