2021 Gubernatorial Predictions
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October 16, 2021, 12:09:48 AM

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Author Topic: 2021 Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 1817 times)
Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« on: August 14, 2021, 12:18:10 PM »

Since it looks like Atlas won't be adding one for this year (and there's only a month left until the CA recall), I guess I shall make a thread myself.

Prediction map:


Confidence map:
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2021, 12:53:08 AM »

Yeah what happened to the predicting maps

I don't think they're updating them anymore Sad
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2021, 08:40:19 AM »

It's just Talk Election
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2021, 11:59:40 AM »

He did enter a Prediction map
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2021, 01:18:24 PM »


It closed after one prediction though, probably because of an error with the California prediction.
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S019
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2021, 03:07:55 PM »

Not going to bother to do the colors but here (subject to change)

CA: Lean Remain

VA: Lean Democratic

NJ: Safe Democratic
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2021, 03:16:10 PM »

Not going to bother to do the colors but here (subject to change)

CA: Lean Remain

VA: Lean Democratic

NJ: Safe Democratic

Have you checked out the user Predictions, Dave have them set up but you can't enter them
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2021, 04:11:08 PM »

Not going to bother to do the colors but here (subject to change)

CA: Lean Remain

VA: Lean Democratic

NJ: Safe Democratic

Have you checked out the user Predictions, Dave have them set up but you can't enter them

There's only one prediction that was entered before it closed. All 3 states were over 50% dem, but the confidence prediction had California as a tossup, lean Virginia, and strong New Jersey.
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Mr. Kanye West
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2021, 04:36:58 PM »

Solid started a thread on it but he changes user names so much between Cookie Damage and Solid, he disappears and doesn't follow thru, and he thinks we don't know he is Cookie Damage, he is part of Atlastia
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Lone Star Politics
EEllis02
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2021, 01:19:19 PM »

Predictions are now open!
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2021, 05:39:44 PM »

I am moving my CA prediction to Likely No, with around 24% of all ballots mailed out returned, Democrats hold a sizable lead, and I don't think more than 70% of the voting population will vote, Newsom by 15 or so.
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Old School Democrat
Christian Man
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« Reply #11 on: September 04, 2021, 04:14:31 PM »

California: Tossup
Virginia: Likely Dem
New Jersey: Likely Dem
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2021, 04:48:15 PM »

Safe D for all of them.

Gavin Newsom defeats the recall by double digits.

McAuliffe wins by anywhere from 5-9 points.

Murphy wins by around 15-19 points.
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Drew
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2021, 01:14:58 PM »

CA: Likely No
NJ: Very Likely D
VA: Likely D
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Thunder98
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« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2021, 05:14:36 PM »

CA: Remain +14

NJ: Murphy +11

VA: McAuifee +5

CA is the only prediction that I changed from a few weeks ago, moved from lean to safe remain.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2021, 09:19:48 AM »

VA is a Tossup Rs take a narrow 2 pt lead
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2021, 12:38:07 PM »

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2021, 05:46:42 AM »
« Edited: September 12, 2021, 05:51:45 AM by ElectionsGuy »

CA-Recall 2021: Likely No (D)

Despite some polling suggesting the race tightening, and Republicans disproportionately energized, I highly expect Newsom to be retained. The margin will still probably be a bad sign for Democrats in 2022, but I think a final push by Democrats in the last few weeks will be more than enough to save him. And even then, is it even guaranteed a Republican would win the 2nd ballot? Elder is currently leading, but there's a ton who say their "undecided" (aka Newsom supporters) and whether they vote on that question at all or coalesce behind a Democrat would make a decent difference.

VA 2021: Lean D

I had previously thought of this as Likely D, but even the polling has been surprisingly close. I do think that Virginia has trended so far to the left that it's still a long shot, but a narrow win by Youngkin is possible if everything goes right. I expect McAuliffe to win by more like 4-7.

NJ 2021: Likely D

Not much to say, Phil Murphy should win pretty easily, but not in a landslide. I don't think Phil Murphy is getting any crossover appeal and New Jersey still has a large base of Republicans (typically low 40's), so I rate it Likely D just in case a freak accident were to occur in an off-year with the disproportionate turnout.

CA-Recall 2021: Likely No (D) --> Safe No (D)

It looks like Elder will win the alternative vote, but the recall will not come close to succeeding. California reaps what is sows.

Final Prediction: 58% No, 42% Yes.



I expect No (Newsom) to do worse relative to Biden the most in Latino heavy and working-class areas that will see the biggest drop in turnout. I expect him to hold up the best in the white wealthiest areas of the state.

Virginia and New Jersey remain the same. I expect these races this year to obfuscate the fact that it's increasingly clear the Democrats are in trouble regarding 2022.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2021, 02:33:03 PM »

California: Tossup
Virginia: Likely Dem
New Jersey: Likely Dem

What!?  Especially given the other two.
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Old School Democrat
Christian Man
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« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2021, 06:33:48 PM »

California: Tossup
Virginia: Likely Dem
New Jersey: Likely Dem

What!?  Especially given the other two.

The media/polling for a while showed that Cali was going to be close. It wasn't until recently that it showed Newsom with a double-digit lead.
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JustinSmith
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2021, 11:19:11 AM »

My model is still deep in the "work-in-progress" category, but here's what it has to say about Virginia and New Jersey at this point:

New Jersey
Murphy: 1,173,296
Ciattarelli: 912,662

Virginia
McAuliffe: 1,572,239
Youngkin: 1,332,830

Model is 100.00% (rounded to nearest 0.01%) confident of both Murphy and McAuliffe wins.

These predictions (along with updated numbers every couple weeks) will be evaluated after the election for accuracy.
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YOU JUST POSTED MALARKEY!
Abdullah
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2021, 04:29:23 PM »

My model is still deep in the "work-in-progress" category, but here's what it has to say about Virginia and New Jersey at this point:

New Jersey
Murphy: 1,173,296
Ciattarelli: 912,662

Virginia
McAuliffe: 1,572,239
Youngkin: 1,332,830

Model is 100.00% (rounded to nearest 0.01%) confident of both Murphy and McAuliffe wins.

These predictions (along with updated numbers every couple weeks) will be evaluated after the election for accuracy.

Very nice! Do you have plans to take into consideration the Virginia Raw Early Voting Numbers for your Enthusiasm factor?
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JustinSmith
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2021, 06:34:48 PM »

My model is still deep in the "work-in-progress" category, but here's what it has to say about Virginia and New Jersey at this point:

New Jersey
Murphy: 1,173,296
Ciattarelli: 912,662

Virginia
McAuliffe: 1,572,239
Youngkin: 1,332,830

Model is 100.00% (rounded to nearest 0.01%) confident of both Murphy and McAuliffe wins.

These predictions (along with updated numbers every couple weeks) will be evaluated after the election for accuracy.

Very nice! Do you have plans to take into consideration the Virginia Raw Early Voting Numbers for your Enthusiasm factor?
Not this time around. I don't want to incorporate too many new things at once because if something ends up being very wrong and it can be difficult to track down which thing I changed was responsible for it.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2021, 11:27:04 AM »

My predictions:

California: Likely Newsom wins, but the margin is unclear - I can very easily see a double-digit win
New Jersey: Safe Murphy; the margin should be about 15 points or thereabouts
Virginia: Likely-to-Safe McAuliffe; the margin should be around, say, 10 points or so

Predictions as of October 1 - I'm going to be bold given the polling:
NJ: Murphy+14.9
VA: McAuliffe+7.2

I will do my final predictions right before the election, in early November.
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