WI-03: Kind retiring 🚨🚨🚨

[Scottholes 2.0]

The geography for Democrats in Wisconsin is just brutal! I guess Democrats in WI are more self-packed than I thought because most fair maps simply wouldn't make WI-03 more D-leaning.

[walleye26]

I think Dems should make a Milwaukee/north shore burbs+Tosa district for WI-4, then put West Allis, West MKE, greenfield, Greendale, Franklin, oak creek, south MKE, cudahy and Racine/Kenosha counties in WI-1. I think in that map WI-1 would be R+1

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The geography for Democrats in Wisconsin is just brutal! I guess Democrats in WI are more self-packed than I thought because most fair maps simply wouldn't make WI-03 more D-leaning.

It’s ridiculous how blue Dane county is

[MargieCat]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

[Spectator]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

He’d be running for Senate if that was his angle.

[Suburbia]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Kind is probably too white for the Democratic base...

[Pericles]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Kind is probably too white for the Democratic base...

Harris almost has to have a white man as her VP though, her being at the top of the ticket is enough of a statement so they'll be looking for someone that feels safe and reassures swing voters. Also, not sure what 'too white' is supposed to mean.

[libertpaulian]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Her VP will be Ossoff, Cooper, or Buttigieg.

[brucejoel99]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Her VP will be Ossoff, Cooper, or Buttigieg.

This is Sherrod Brown, Andy Beshear, & Mark Kelly erasure.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Her VP will be Ossoff, Cooper, or Buttigieg.

Buttigieg won't be Harris Veep, Blks WI t turn out for her, just because Atlas says BUTTIGIEG is gonna be Veep do want make it so, Buttigieg got slaughtered in NV, Latinos didn't want Pete Buttigieg

[Utah Neolib]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Her VP will be Ossoff, Cooper, or Buttigieg.

This is Sherrod Brown, Andy Beshear, & Mark Kelly erasure.

Brown would lose us a senate seat because there’s no way Ohio will flip D on senate or governor level, unless the GOP nominates literal Jim Jordan
Beshear would be good, but his support for some abortion restrictions probably wouldn’t play well with the D base (though he’d probably change his views, as every person in a position of power has done for the past 200 years)
Mark Kelly would be amazing, but I’m not sure he’d take the offer because he wants Giffords to be safe. Also would be a very western ticket, which wouldn’t be bad, just unusual

[DS0816]

WI-03 will absolutely flip in 2022 now.

Agree.

The Republicans, en route to flipping the U.S. House with the midterm elections of 2022, is likely to see their involved states include the combination of the Rust Belt bellwethers Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The 2020 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by +3.12 percentage points. (Result was Democratic 50.81% vs. Republican 47.69%.) Ron Kind, the incumbent Democrat from Wisconsin #03, underperformed his party’s national margin with one that was +2.66.

This was a district carried by unseated Donald Trump. This sets up with a midterm election in which the White House party is Democratic with a cycle favorable to the Republicans.

It is not surprising Ron Kind, after more than two decades, is opting for retirement.

[brucejoel99]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Her VP will be Ossoff, Cooper, or Buttigieg.

This is Sherrod Brown, Andy Beshear, & Mark Kelly erasure.

Brown would lose us a senate seat because there’s no way Ohio will flip D on senate or governor level, unless the GOP nominates literal Jim Jordan

Beshear would be good, but his support for some abortion restrictions probably wouldn’t play well with the D base (though he’d probably change his views, as every person in a position of power has done for the past 200 years)

Mark Kelly would be amazing, but I’m not sure he’d take the offer because he wants Giffords to be safe. Also would be a very western ticket, which wouldn’t be bad, just unusual

I wasn't being all that serious so much as just going for the "erasure" joke, but it's not improbable for Brown to determine in spring/summer 2024 that he's going down if he remains in the Senate race, so he might as well let himself be vetted.

[Suburbia]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Kind is probably too white for the Democratic base...

Harris almost has to have a white man as her VP though, her being at the top of the ticket is enough of a statement so they'll be looking for someone that feels safe and reassures swing voters. Also, not sure what 'too white' is supposed to mean.

Kind is from a rural region in Wisconsin that Dems are ceding to the Republicans right now, and Kind may be too white, too bland for the leftward base...

[Utah Neolib]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

I actually thought this too

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

He probably doesn't have a big enough national profile for that.

I'm wondering if he's hoping to get chosen as Kamala Harris' VP in 2024 or 2028 and trying to prevent himself from facing a loss.

He wouldn't be a horrible choice for her.

Kind is probably too white for the Democratic base...

So I guess that makes Joe Biden George Clinton then?

[Pollster]

State Sen. Brad Pfaff in.

https://twitter.com/pfaff4congress/status/1445004571944833026?s=20

[lfromnj]

State Sen. Brad Pfaff in.

https://twitter.com/pfaff4congress/status/1445004571944833026?s=20

He did underperformed Biden by 6 in the La crosse district. However he did face a former state senator who actually won the area while Obama carried it with like 60% of the vote in 08.

The driftless area was only. D for 30 years which makes it such that ancestral voting isn't that strong for either party.

[Mr.Phips]

State Sen. Brad Pfaff in.

https://twitter.com/pfaff4congress/status/1445004571944833026?s=20

Well at least he won’t have to give up his senate seat to run for this seat.  Still, this district (outside of Lacrosse) is much like Iowa and is the kind of district that will likely swing hard against Dems in 2022.

[Gass3268]

His chances will be determined by what happens in redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

His chances will be determined by what happens in redistricting.

I don’t see how it gets anymore favorable in redistricting, unless it picks up part of Dane county, which would only happen in a Dem gerrymander.

[Gass3268]

His chances will be determined by what happens in redistricting.

I don’t see how it gets anymore favorable in redistricting, unless it picks up part of Dane county, which would only happen in a Dem gerrymander.

It would really depend on what the map drawer prioritizes.

[I’m not Stu]

Will he run for Senate?

[GALeftist]

His chances will be determined by what happens in redistricting.

I don’t see how it gets anymore favorable in redistricting, unless it picks up part of Dane county, which would only happen in a Dem gerrymander.

You don't technically need to split Dane to get a Biden seat out of WI-03, you can give it like Iowa and some or all of Rock which along with Eau Claire and La Crosse is enough to make it a marginal Biden seat while WI-02 takes in redder turf in the northeast along with Dane. Not sure it would be winnable for the decade or even in 2022 but it is possible.

[walleye26]

His chances will be determined by what happens in redistricting.

I don’t see how it gets anymore favorable in redistricting, unless it picks up part of Dane county, which would only happen in a Dem gerrymander.

Eau Claire, Trempealeau, Jackson, LaCrosse, Vernon, Richland, Crawford, Sauk, Iowa, Lafayette, Green, Rock (+portions of the city of Eau Claire in Chippewa county and portions of Columbia county) should get a Biden +5 district.