How will young conservatives change the GOP in the future?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Even though (as has always happened) Gen Z is more left-wing than the older generations, Gen Z right-wingers do exist. Once they grow up and have more sway in the GOP, how will they align/how do they affect the party.
Will they be Baker-esque moderates? Libertarians? Tucker-watching populists? Alt-right extremists?

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

Even though (as has always happened) Gen Z is more left-wing than the older generations, Gen Z right-wingers do exist. Once they grow up and have more sway in the GOP, how will they align/how do they affect the party.
Will they be Baker-esque moderates? Libertarians? Tucker-watching populists? Alt-right extremists?

I think I see a GOP break in the future. Although Gen-Z is much more socially liberal I think economic attitudes are shifting faster. I think we'll see a consensus on social issues (most Gen-Z people I know from Bernie-types to those closer to the middle believe gay marriage is fine, who gives a sh**t about culture wars blah blah) and have the battle shift to economic matters.

So we'll see (as strange as it may sound) the AOC type DSA urban lefties and rural populists ally because they support left-wing fiscal policy while moderates, suburbanites, romneyites, and more align due to relative support of more centrist fiscal policy. From all the Gen-Z people I've met (which is a lot considering I am one) most admit that the US Healthcare system is not working etc, so we'll see a general consensus on social policy (minus the lunatics on both ends) while seeing a centrist v. liberal policy debate on fiscal matters.

[MRS. MEE SUM CHU]

I think I see a GOP break in the future. Although Gen-Z is much more socially liberal I think economic attitudes are shifting faster. I think we'll see a consensus on social issues (most Gen-Z people I know from Bernie-types to those closer to the middle believe gay marriage is fine, who gives a sh**t about culture wars blah blah) and have the battle shift to economic matters.

So we'll see (as strange as it may sound) the AOC type DSA urban lefties and rural populists ally because they support left-wing fiscal policy while moderates, suburbanites, romneyites, and more align due to relative support of more centrist fiscal policy. From all the Gen-Z people I've met (which is a lot considering I am one) most admit that the US Healthcare system is not working etc, so we'll see a general consensus on social policy (minus the lunatics on both ends) while seeing a centrist v. liberal policy debate on fiscal matters.

So basically 2014 Michael Lind’s populiberals vs liberaltarians and a continuation of big city urban cores trending R while upscale and suburban areas continue trending D.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

I think I see a GOP break in the future. Although Gen-Z is much more socially liberal I think economic attitudes are shifting faster. I think we'll see a consensus on social issues (most Gen-Z people I know from Bernie-types to those closer to the middle believe gay marriage is fine, who gives a sh**t about culture wars blah blah) and have the battle shift to economic matters.

So we'll see (as strange as it may sound) the AOC type DSA urban lefties and rural populists ally because they support left-wing fiscal policy while moderates, suburbanites, romneyites, and more align due to relative support of more centrist fiscal policy. From all the Gen-Z people I've met (which is a lot considering I am one) most admit that the US Healthcare system is not working etc, so we'll see a general consensus on social policy (minus the lunatics on both ends) while seeing a centrist v. liberal policy debate on fiscal matters.

So basically 2014 Michael Lind’s populiberals vs liberaltarians and a continuation of big city urban cores trending R while upscale and suburban areas continue trending D.

Correct. Neoconservatism and Neoliberalism for that matter will decrease drastically.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Cultural conservatism will shift from the older generations' incessant focus on things like abortion and religiosity, to a general opposition to political correctness, cancel culture, "woke" culture, etc.

[TheReckoning]

Cultural conservatism will shift from the older generations' incessant focus on things like abortion and religiosity, to a general opposition to political correctness, cancel culture, "woke" culture, etc.

That’s ironic, as the former tells people what to do, while the latter opposes telling people what to do.

[Non Swing Voter]

Cultural conservatism will shift from the older generations' incessant focus on things like abortion and religiosity, to a general opposition to political correctness, cancel culture, "woke" culture, etc.

So in other words cultural conservatism will lose (to the extent it hasn't already) and then just focus on nonsense twitter issues?  Amazing, the greatest democracy in the history of the world and this is where one of the two major political parties is at.

[Adjective-Statement]

I expect the intentionally offensive firebrand populist grassroots conservatism of the Tea Party and Trump to quiet down with generational turnover. Bluntly, that whole chapter was a listless boomer tantrum over the end of their Reagan Era power. Young conservatives from the center-right to the far-right understand the importance of subtlety, or "hiding your power level" if you're alt-right, and are willing to be a lot more cunning about getting their way. The Republican Party of the Millennials and Gen Z will be one of pragmatists who aren't afraid to back an Eisenhower or a Bill Clinton if it means they can win a long game. They've shown a proclivity toward reading the room and camouflaging accordingly- see how the alt-right infiltrated the comics and gaming communities and took to cutesy anime and vaporwave aesthetics.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think if there's one issue that this will impact, it's climate change. I could see young conservatives start to push for more market-friendly environmental solutions.

[Skill and Chance]

I think if there's one issue that this will impact, it's climate change. I could see young conservatives start to push for more market-friendly environmental solutions.

We are likely headed for a GOP can't win without Florida, Dems can't win without Texas EC map.  That would force a bipartisan deal on climate issues in short order.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think if there's one issue that this will impact, it's climate change. I could see young conservatives start to push for more market-friendly environmental solutions.

We are likely headed for a GOP can't win without Florida, Dems can't win without Texas EC map.  That would force a bipartisan deal on climate issues in short order.

Democrats can win without Texas. They just did in 2020.

[Devils30]

Even though (as has always happened) Gen Z is more left-wing than the older generations, Gen Z right-wingers do exist. Once they grow up and have more sway in the GOP, how will they align/how do they affect the party.
Will they be Baker-esque moderates? Libertarians? Tucker-watching populists? Alt-right extremists?

I think I see a GOP break in the future. Although Gen-Z is much more socially liberal I think economic attitudes are shifting faster. I think we'll see a consensus on social issues (most Gen-Z people I know from Bernie-types to those closer to the middle believe gay marriage is fine, who gives a sh**t about culture wars blah blah) and have the battle shift to economic matters.

So we'll see (as strange as it may sound) the AOC type DSA urban lefties and rural populists ally because they support left-wing fiscal policy while moderates, suburbanites, romneyites, and more align due to relative support of more centrist fiscal policy. From all the Gen-Z people I've met (which is a lot considering I am one) most admit that the US Healthcare system is not working etc, so we'll see a general consensus on social policy (minus the lunatics on both ends) while seeing a centrist v. liberal policy debate on fiscal matters.

If DSA Urban lefties like AOC take a leading, rather than a side role in the Democratic Party, it might be the event that triggers the next 1992 realignment where the GOP peels off moderate Dems who are socially moderate but not into socialism or the anti-Israel stuff.

[Skill and Chance]

I think if there's one issue that this will impact, it's climate change. I could see young conservatives start to push for more market-friendly environmental solutions.

We are likely headed for a GOP can't win without Florida, Dems can't win without Texas EC map.  That would force a bipartisan deal on climate issues in short order.

Democrats can win without Texas. They just did in 2020.

Thinking 2028 or 32 here. 

[AtorBoltox]

Young conservatives are mostly Madison Cawthron types. They will only contribute to the ceaseless radicalisation of the Republican party.

[Non Swing Voter]

Young conservatives are mostly Madison Cawthron types. They will only contribute to the ceaseless radicalisation of the Republican party.

Yeah, Madison and Boebert are the GOP future.

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1421245568035196931

very scary that this is the future of one of the two political parties.  The smaller it shrinks the more radical and nonsensical it will get.

[RINO Tom]

Young conservatives are mostly Madison Cawthron types. They will only contribute to the ceaseless radicalisation of the Republican party.

Parties that become too radical lose repeatedly, and parties that lose repeatedly in our system change.  Can’t have your cake and eat it, too.

[TodayJunior]

Young conservatives are mostly Madison Cawthron types. They will only contribute to the ceaseless radicalisation of the Republican party.

Yeah, Madison and Boebert are the GOP future.

https://twitter.com/juliegraceb/status/1421245568035196931
very scary that this is the future of one of the two political parties.  The smaller it shrinks the more radical and nonsensical it will get.

If that is real, GOOD GRIEF that is just awful.

[pbrower2a]

Conservatism must redefine itself away from the neoliberal and corporatist (crony capitalist, if not fascist) ways. It will need to renounce Big Government either as a ready source of welfare or of sweet deals to rapacious monopolists. It will need to again promote personal responsibility in improving oneself and in creating wealth.  It will need to recognize the validity of tradition, but not only of white Christians, in establishing a sane alternative to radicalism, demagoguery, and despotism should the Democrats ever nominate people best described as left-wing versions of Donald Trump.  

That is what the GOP was in the 1950's, when Eisenhower could win Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Rhode island twice. Between them those states have gone for the Republican nominee a grand total of twelve times since 1928. Ike won the people of more-than-average education of his time. If you don't believe me, then look at my favorite overlay map:

When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.

The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.

 
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once

No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.

Except to the Biden win of 2020, Obama's victory maps look more like those of Eisenhower with the Parties inverted. Political orientation of the Parties may have changed, but most of the states have not had wild changes in their political cultures.  (Ike is really closest to Hoover in 1928; maybe Ike's America is much like what Hoover wanted America to be).

A very poor match between Obama and another Democrat is with Carter in 1976:

 
Carter 1976, Obama 2008/2012    

Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue

Using the 1976 "road map" to understand the elections of either 2008 or 2012 is about like using a Colorado road map in Wyoming just because the two states have the same shape.
  

The first thing that Republicans must do is to recognize what a disaster Trump was. The electoral results of 2020 may suggest that with a few tweaks of messaging, campaigning, and finding a nominee with a compelling personality they can still keep the Reagan-Bush-Trump era going. Conservative Republicans must recognize that except for not being a conservative, Barack Obama was ultra-conservative in style and substance. Republicans can not long get away with tweaking  Trump or trying to resuscitate Reagan; they need a conservative version of Obama.

Demographics do not favor the Trump agenda. Americans are not becoming more anti-traditional; they are instead coalescing around several different traditions. The exception is among white Christians who lack a cultural focus or have adopted a shaky tradition that repudiates community cohesion, denounces formal learning, and fosters impulse. Here's a notice to poor whites: where they compete with Mexican-Americans, Mexican-Americans of similar vocational attainment on the whole fare better in....

1. having a genuine community
2. avoiding bad habits (smoking, obesity, opiates, meth)
3. forming small businesses
4. avoiding crime
5. promoting education to their kids
6. marital stability

It is not a good thing to be poor, but if you are going to be poor it would be better to be Mexican-American in Texas than to be Scots-Irish in Appalachia or the Ozarks.