Iceland Parliamentary Elections 25 Sept 2021

[Diouf]

Interesting to see how different the swings are in the Reykjavik constituencies. In the polls, e.g. Reform was expected to make big gains, so if they are to come, I would guess it's due to gains there. On the few early votes from the Northwest and South, they were status quo or a bit down. Similarly, for parties like Pirates, Social Democrats and Left Greens.

[Mike88]

The vote count is very slow...

[crals]

M collapsing, seems likely that they won't cross the threshold? Good riddance if so.

[Mike88]

M collapsing, seems likely that they won't cross the threshold? Good riddance if so.

It's still early and there's nothing yet from Reykjavík. Let's see what happens when they dump those votes. Although their best constituency in 2017, the Northeast, has them dropping 13% compared with last time.

[Mike88]

Vote dump from Southwest constituency: The Independent Party has a massive lead, as expected.

[Estrella]

With about a third of votes counted, these are the numbers of seats so far. Bear in mind that it's mostly rural areas, hence the high Progress result and low-ish results for left/liberal parties.

Government 40 (+5)
     Independence 19 (+3)
     Progress 12 (+4)
     Left-Green 9 (-2)
Opposition 23 (-5)
     Socdem 6 (-1)
     People's 6 (+2)
     Pirates 5 (-1)
     Reform 5 (+1)
     Centre 1 (-6)
     Socialists 0

[Boobs]

Unfortunate that Midflokkurin is set to remain in the Althing.

[Diouf]

It sounds like the numbers are now final in the Northwest, South, and Southwest.

For the constituency seats in the Northwest, the Progressive Party gains one to win three seats. The Independence Party stays at two seats. The Left-Greens keep their one seat. The Centre Party loses their seat (they also got the leveling seat here four years ago, so ended up with two representatives from the area). The Social Democrats also lose their seat. The People's Party win a seat.

In the South, the Independence Party stays at three seats. The Progressive Party adds one to reach three seats. The Centre Party, the Social Democrats and the People's Party all keep one seat. The Centre Party keeps their seat by being seven votes ahead of the Left-Greens, who lose their constituency seat (although right now it looks like they could win the leveling seat here).

In the Southwest, the Independence Party is still dominant with its four seats. The Left-Greens lose one of their two seats. The Social Democrats keep their seat. The Centre Party loses their constituency seat (but it looks like they could get one of the two leveling seats here). The Reform Party and the Pirate Party each holds one to one seat. The People's Party win a constituency seat this time after only getting represetation here through a leveling seat in 2017. The Progressive Party also wins a seat here to end up on two seats.

[Diouf]

Also final results from the Northeast. The Independence Party keeps its two seats, while the Progressive Party is now the biggest party as it increases from two to three seats. The Left-Greens loses one of their two constituency seats (but it might be saved as the leveling seat). Centre Party leader Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson keeps his seat, but the party loses its second seat. The Social Democrats keep their single seat, while the People's Party also gain a seat here.

Overall, it looks like the government parties have a majority of 37 seats if all the parties want to continue it. The deciders are probably the two smaller parties, the Progressive Party and the Left-Greens. The two having very different nights with the former winning 5 seats while the latter loses 3 seats. So you would imagine the Left-Greens aren't as eager to continue the current coalition.

[Diouf]

All results should be final now:

D 24.4% (-0.8%) 16 seats (=)
B 17.3% (+6.6%) 13 (+5)
V 12.6% (-4.3%) 8 (-3)
S 9.9% (-2.2%) 6 (-1)
F 8.8% (+1.9%) 6 (+2)
P 8.6% (-0.6%) 6 (=)
C 8.3% (+1.6%) 5 (+1)
M 5.4% (-5.5%) 3 (-4)
J 4.1% (new) 0

So the new Socialist Party ended up taking a lot of votes out of the Left-Greens, but missed crossing the threshold and getting into parliament. The Centre Party more than halved, but just manages to stay in parliament. I would imagine a lot of their voters could have gone to the Progressive Party and perhaps also some to the People's Party.
The Pirates ended up getting three of the four leveling seats in Reykjavik this time. Which means that they end up with a whole of three seats in Reykjavik North, despite only getting 12.8% and being in third place. 21-year old law student Lenya Rún Taha Karim, who is born in Iceland of Kurdish parents, is surprisingly elected for that third seat.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Also final results from the Northeast. The Independence Party keeps its two seats, while the Progressive Party is now the biggest party as it increases from two to three seats. The Left-Greens loses one of their two constituency seats (but it might be saved as the leveling seat). Centre Party leader Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson keeps his seat, but the party loses its second seat. The Social Democrats keep their single seat, while the People's Party also gain a seat here.

Overall, it looks like the government parties have a majority of 37 seats if all the parties want to continue it. The deciders are probably the two smaller parties, the Progressive Party and the Left-Greens. The two having very different nights with the former winning 5 seats while the latter loses 3 seats. So you would imagine the Left-Greens aren't as eager to continue the current coalition.

Is there any appetite among the other two parties for ditching the left and going for a more center-right coalition?

[Boobs]

The question is really who do Sjalfstaedisflokkurinn & Framsoknarflokkurinn work with if not Vinstri-graen? Vidreisn is too europhilic, isn’t it, although being pro-Europe didn’t stop the two right parties from working with vidreisn and bjort framtid in 2016. And I reckon no one really wants to work with Midflokkurin, so I guess that leaves flokkur folksins as the last option.

I don’t know if Katrin would want to be the third party in a right wing coalition again if she isn’t PM, and the results don’t really justify it either. Perhaps a compromise with Sigurdur instead of Bjarni as PM is possible? I don’t know.

I guess the likeliest is a D-B-C coalition ? Complete shot in the dark. I could very well be very wrong.

[Storr]

All results should be final now:

D 24.4% (-0.8%) 16 seats (=)
B 17.3% (+6.6%) 13 (+5)
V 12.6% (-4.3%) 8 (-3)
S 9.9% (-2.2%) 6 (-1)
F 8.8% (+1.9%) 6 (+2)
P 8.6% (-0.6%) 6 (=)
C 8.3% (+1.6%) 5 (+1)
M 5.4% (-5.5%) 3 (-4)
J 4.1% (new) 0

So the new Socialist Party ended up taking a lot of votes out of the Left-Greens, but missed crossing the threshold and getting into parliament. The Centre Party more than halved, but just manages to stay in parliament. I would imagine a lot of their voters could have gone to the Progressive Party and perhaps also some to the People's Party.
The Pirates ended up getting three of the four leveling seats in Reykjavik this time. Which means that they end up with a whole of three seats in Reykjavik North, despite only getting 12.8% and being in third place. 21-year old law student Lenya Rún Taha Karim, who is born in Iceland of Kurdish parents, is surprisingly elected for that third seat.

Too bad that the pro-EU parties (S and C) stayed at 9 seats. At least they didn't lose any seats, I guess.

[NewYorkExpress]

The new Parliament will be Majority Female, the first one in Europe.

Some 33 of the 63 seats in the Althingi parliament, or 52%, have been won by women.

This marks an increase of nine seats from the last election in 2017.

No other European country has breached the 50% threshold, with Sweden coming closest at 47%, according to data from the Inter Parliamentary Union.

....

Just five other countries currently have parliaments where women hold at least half the seats. Rwanda leads the way, with women making up 61.3% of the members of its lower house.

It is followed by Cuba on 53.4%, Nicaragua on 50.6% and Mexico and the United Arab Emirates at 50%

[Estrella]

The new Parliament will be Majority Female, the first one in Europe.

Some 33 of the 63 seats in the Althingi parliament, or 52%, have been won by women.

This marks an increase of nine seats from the last election in 2017.

No other European country has breached the 50% threshold, with Sweden coming closest at 47%, according to data from the Inter Parliamentary Union.

....

Just five other countries currently have parliaments where women hold at least half the seats. Rwanda leads the way, with women making up 61.3% of the members of its lower house.

It is followed by Cuba on 53.4%, Nicaragua on 50.6% and Mexico and the United Arab Emirates at 50%

That's a very strange club.

[crals]

The new Parliament will be Majority Female, the first one in Europe.

Some 33 of the 63 seats in the Althingi parliament, or 52%, have been won by women.

This marks an increase of nine seats from the last election in 2017.

No other European country has breached the 50% threshold, with Sweden coming closest at 47%, according to data from the Inter Parliamentary Union.

....

Just five other countries currently have parliaments where women hold at least half the seats. Rwanda leads the way, with women making up 61.3% of the members of its lower house.

It is followed by Cuba on 53.4%, Nicaragua on 50.6% and Mexico and the United Arab Emirates at 50%

After a recount, this is apparently no longer the case.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The new Parliament will be Majority Female, the first one in Europe.

Some 33 of the 63 seats in the Althingi parliament, or 52%, have been won by women.

This marks an increase of nine seats from the last election in 2017.

No other European country has breached the 50% threshold, with Sweden coming closest at 47%, according to data from the Inter Parliamentary Union.

....

Just five other countries currently have parliaments where women hold at least half the seats. Rwanda leads the way, with women making up 61.3% of the members of its lower house.

It is followed by Cuba on 53.4%, Nicaragua on 50.6% and Mexico and the United Arab Emirates at 50%

That's a very strange club.

Is it, besides the UAE? Rwanda lost a lot of men in the genocide and President Kagame has pushed for women in politics, and the other three countries are Latin American countries ruled by the (self-styled) left that wants to (at least appear to) support feminism and women’s empowerment.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Looks like the government is in negotiations to continue. Is this…good for the left, since the Left-Greens will see even less power in the new government?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mostly it's just... normal. Governments that are a mixture of left and right and have been the norm in Iceland since the 1950s.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Mostly it's just... normal. Governments that are a mixture of left and right and have been the norm in Iceland since the 1950s.

Huh, good to know. Any particular reason or do they just like Big Tent Coalition Governments?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mostly it's just... normal. Governments that are a mixture of left and right and have been the norm in Iceland since the 1950s.

Huh, good to know. Any particular reason or do they just like Big Tent Coalition Governments?

Originally it related to Cold War issues - the Independence Party was very pro-American and keen on NATO while the Progressive Party was more sceptical, so for a period the IP preferred going into government with the SDP (who shared their foreign policy stances) than with the PP, who, in turn, often formed governments with the People's Alliance (i.e. the Communists) - but after a certain point it started to relate a lot more to personality politics. After all, Iceland is a very small country with a very small political class. Personal relations between senior politicians end up mattering much more than in larger countries, for much the same reason they often do at local government level elsewhere.

[Drew]

The incumbent government will remain in power.

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1465081211496419331?s=21

[Antonio the Sixth]

What a weird country.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Necroposting, but I see that in the polls, the incumbent government is tanking. The opposition, most notably the Social Democrats and Greens, have surged.

Anything specific causing this? Scandals? Or just the general cost of living crisis that is making every government in Europe unpopular?

Merci in advance

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Necroposting, but I see that in the polls, the incumbent government is tanking. The opposition, most notably the Social Democrats and Greens, have surged.

Anything specific causing this? Scandals? Or just the general cost of living crisis that is making every government in Europe unpopular?

Merci in advance

I assume you're in the AAD PM thread with Our Danish Friend, but i asked her and this was her response (for anyone else not in the loop):


"
a) as I've commented on before the war in Ukraine and the general uncertain international economic and political situation has led to a majority in the polls for Icelandic EU membership, a big chunk of centrists and/or apolitical voters have simply changed their mind and being pro-EU is no longer an electoral liability but an asset. The three liberal parties SDA, Pirates and Reform have now declared they want Iceland to renew its frozen membership application. The People's Party has countered by demanding the application formally terminated, but the government is basically just laying low hoping public opinion will change again.

b) gridlock and stagnation in the government, PP siding with IP most of the time rather than moving left as many hoped after a lefty campaign. High profile LG people more or less openly saying it was a mistake to renew the government. LG's deputy leader and Minister of Social Affairs (M. of Environment in the previous term, ex-Landvernd boss) Guðmundur Ingi Guðbrandsson has publicly stated that LG can only enter a government after the next elections that lean more to the left and has much bigger ambitions on environment and climate, which basically means SDA will have to be in it.

c) SDA is about to elect young rising star Kristrún Frostadóttir (also commented on above) as chairman, while her business background and being on the right of the party doesn't on paper appeal to leftist voters her charisma, personality, vast economic knowledge and debating skills means SDA for the first time since Johanna S. will have a leader the voters and other parties (incl. LG, which has resigned to not being able to keep the PM post next term) can actually see as a potential PM.

The government is close to being an "acting government" (possibly for several years..) while the PM's party is gearing up to joining the opposition in a progressive alternative to IP/PP next term. Probably not something Katrín J. really enjoys, but she's made a bad deal in order to stay on and is losing authority internally, and ofc something that'll cost LG votes to PP (and maybe People's) in rural areas next time.

As so often I'm focusing on LG because they're the swing vote between the "conservative" bloc and the "liberal" (Icelandic terminology).

Some scandals ongoing, incl. the one with big IP connected fishing company bribing their way to contracts in Namibia and elsewhere, but Icelanders are used to scandals and it doesn't move the needle much."