An alternate 2016 election between Trump and the protagonist of my book

[President Johnson]

I always asked myself how fictional characters from movies, TV-shows or novels would do in real elections. I actually wonder how the protagonist of my novel would have done in the real 2016 presidential election, assuming his challenger was Donald Trump?

Some background:

- The main character of the book and incumbent president is Gordon F. Smith, a Connecticut businessman worth 40 billion dollars, who was elected vice president in 2012 and became president in August 2014 following a scandal by his predecessor (in which he was not involved).

- President Smith is a moderate Democrat, has some charisma (not Obama-level, but still). He's 51 years old, divorced from his wife in the summer of 2016 and physcially impressing with a height of 6’5. He completely self-funds his reelection campaign.

- Republicans on congress mostly stonewalled his agenda, but he was able to pass a major tax reform in 2015, lowering taxes for the middle class. Otherwise, he governs a lot through executive action and vetoes a ton of Republican bills after the 2014 midterms.

- GDP growth in the fall of 2016 is at about 3%; no major crisis abroad. President's approval rating is between 45% and 51%.

- His running mate is Vice President Stephanie Mercer, a former senator from California, consumer protection lawyer and 46 years of age. Ideologically, they’re similar. She’s fluent in Spanish, but non-Hispanic white.


How do you think the 2016 election would have turned out, if Trump was the challenger of this president? I actually think Trump would have lost against any incumbent president in 2016 unless things are really bad, even if the president is not directly elected in this case. Furthermore, a guy at least ten times richer than him cuts off the argument of "the successful businessman" for him.

For reference, in the novel, the president defeats the governor of Ohio, a woman from the evangelical wing, 330 vs. 208 electoral votes (real 2012 minus Ohio, plus North Carolina and Nebraska-02) and a 51.7% to 46.8% edge in the popular vote.