CT GOV 2022 megathread

[Suburbia]

Connecticut, one of the wealthiest states in America, has the potential to vote Republican in a 2022 midterm that will be in a Democratic president.

Antitax CT is ripe for the first Republican victory in the state since 2006.....

Which Republicans can win?

[President Johnson]

If Lamont maintains his popularity from competent pandemic management, he'll easily win reelection. Even Malloy won in 2014 in a red wave year.

Earlier in his term or when he ran in 2018, I read that Lamont may not seek reelection, but I doubt he steps down next year.

In order to win, Republicans would have to nominate a culturally moderate Republican like Charlie Baker and hope for Lamont's approval rating to decline. A Trumpian like Stefanowski is a tough sell, although he overperformed in 2018 mainly due to Malloy's disastrous reputation.

[here2view]

Lamont will probably win by 7-8 points. He finished with 49.37% of the vote in 2018, I have a hard time seeing him lose many votes.

I'd say 52-45-3 Lamont victory.

[Progressive Pessimist]

2018 was way closer than it probably should have been for Lamont, even against a weak opponent. But I think with Malloy's unpopularity and baggage is now well-behind the Connecticut Democratic Party, and especially since even he was able to win in 2014, Lamont will probably win by the high single digits, as I see it.

[Non Swing Voter]

Connecticut, one of the wealthiest states in America, has the potential to vote Republican in a 2022 midterm that will be in a Democratic president.

Antitax CT is ripe for the first Republican victory in the state since 2006.....

Which Republicans can win?

Wealthy people vote Democrat now. 

Lets also not forget that Republicans screwed over the UMC particularly in blue states by putting a cap on SALT deductions.  The national GOP clearly recognizes who their new voter base is and it's not educated well to do CT suburbanites.

[beesley]

I think this is a safe race for Lamont actually - he has redeemed the CT Dems in the eyes of gubernatorial voters. Those wealthy people will be satisfied with his pandemic management and won't crossover as they did for Malloy and his legacy. Likely D would be what I'd rate it.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lamont should win, but if Republicans were to nominate someone like Chris Shays or Rob Simmons, they might have a chance, especially if 2022 turns out to be a GOP wave.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Connecticut, one of the wealthiest states in America, has the potential to vote Republican in a 2022 midterm that will be in a Democratic president.

Antitax CT is ripe for the first Republican victory in the state since 2006.....

Which Republicans can win?

Wealthy people vote Democrat now. 

Lets also not forget that Republicans screwed over the UMC particularly in blue states by putting a cap on SALT deductions.  The national GOP clearly recognizes who their new voter base is and it's not educated well to do CT suburbanites.

That same thing screwed Republicans over bigly in my state too in 2018. National Republicans ceded NJ Republicans' best issue to Democrats that year!

[JMT]

Some recent developments in this race:

Bob Stefanowski announced he is running for Governor again, as expected. His potential primary opponent, Themis Klarides, announced that she is not running for Governor, and will instead run for U.S. Senate.

https://twitter.com/bobforgovernor/status/1486348450350309380?s=21

https://twitter.com/reptklarides/status/1487805398103035906?s=21

[smoltchanov]

Most likely - both will lose. The question is - by how much?

[President Johnson]

Most likely - both will lose. The question is - by how much?

If I had to guess: Blumenthal wins reelection with 55-42% and Lamont 53-44%.

[smoltchanov]

Most likely - both will lose. The question is - by how much?

If I had to guess: Blumenthal wins reelection with 55-42% and Lamont 53-44%.

Plausible guesses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

BLUMENTHAL is gonna easily win 55/45 and so will Lamont

[FairBol]

After the Connecticut GOP Convention, I can report that Bob Stefanowski is the official Republican nominee for governor. 

As far as the race for US Senate is concerned, there will be a three-person primary to decide the GOP nominee.  The candidates are former State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides, Ms. Leora Levy, and immigration lawyer Peter Lumaj.

[LAB-LIB]

I have a feeling this is going to be closer than we think, I'm getting 2021 NJ-GOV vibes from this race.

[Miked0920]

Whats your opinion on the CT Senate Race, a poll released just yesterday put Richard Blumenthal 10 points up over his most likely opponent former State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides.

[TWTown]

It’s kind of funny that Lamont might actually be in a better/equal position now then he was in 2018 despite the political winds not favoring the Democrats atm. Stefanowski isn’t the easiest opponent you could get but at least Lamont doesn’t have to run with the backdrop of Malloy’s appalling 21% approval rating.

[FairBol]

I'm not sure what the proper word to describe my reaction to this is...livid? Shocked? Aghast? Outraged? All four?

(At the risk of getting banned....)

https://www.dailyructions.com/this-is-what-racism-looks-like-democrats-compare-george-logan-to-a-monkey/

That's right kids, the Connecticut Democrats went there. 

WTF???

[Not Me, Us]

I'm not sure what the proper word to describe my reaction to this is...livid? Shocked? Aghast? Outraged? All four?

(At the risk of getting banned....)

https://www.dailyructions.com/this-is-what-racism-looks-like-democrats-compare-george-logan-to-a-monkey/

That's right kids, the Connecticut Democrats went there. 

WTF???

This is a nothingburger. It's so obvious to anybody with a modicum of critical thinking skills that the tweet is emulating the writing style of Curious George because the guy's name is George, no other reason. GOP pearl clutching at its finest.

[FairBol]

OK, quick take from someone who's a bit on the inside. 

I've been working my butt off for the Stefanowski campaign; mostly, my work involves phone banking and canvassing of likely voters who are registered as unaffiliateds.  What I'm hearing is that a lot of people are upset with governor Ned Lamont (yet some of the aforementioned are still undecided). 

The latest major poll, taken by Quinnipiac University in May, shows Lamont +8.  I think the race is somewhat closer...let's say about six points between the two major candidates. 

The "x factor" here is Libertarian nominee Aaron Lewis.  Lately, he's been making a major push for votes, claiming that Stefanowski is simply "Ned in a different color bow tie".  The ultimate outcome will, IMHO, hinge greatly on how many votes the LPer can get. 

If Lewis is held to a low number of votes, say 1.5 percent or lower...I think Stefanowski has a chance (knock on wood). 

If not....I hate to say it, but I believe Lamont will be re-elected (hopefully not). 

Anywho, that's my take. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

OK, quick take from someone who's a bit on the inside. 

I've been working my butt off for the Stefanowski campaign; mostly, my work involves phone banking and canvassing of likely voters who are registered as unaffiliateds.  What I'm hearing is that a lot of people are upset with governor Ned Lamont (yet some of the aforementioned are still undecided). 

The latest major poll, taken by Quinnipiac University in May, shows Lamont +8.  I think the race is somewhat closer...let's say about six points between the two major candidates. 

The "x factor" here is Libertarian nominee Aaron Lewis.  Lately, he's been making a major push for votes, claiming that Stefanowski is simply "Ned in a different color bow tie".  The ultimate outcome will, IMHO, hinge greatly on how many votes the LPer can get. 

If Lewis is held to a low number of votes, say 1.5 percent or lower...I think Stefanowski has a chance (knock on wood). 

If not....I hate to say it, but I believe Lamont will be re-elected (hopefully not). 

Anywho, that's my take. 

Do you think Rs have a realistic shot at the legistlature, given some of their insane overperformances in state legislative seats?

[FairBol]

If Lewis is held to a low number of votes, say 1.5 percent or lower...I think Stefanowski has a chance (knock on wood). 

If not....I hate to say it, but I believe Lamont will be re-elected (hopefully not). 

And I've decided that, should Lamont win, I can no longer stay in Connecticut. 

I said about six years ago that I was looking to leave the state; the only reasons that I stayed were because I thought there was hope to get a Republican elected/turn things around, and because I've never liked the idea of giving up. 

At some point, however, you have to admit defeat, and accept that a turn-around is not going to happen.  If Lamont wins, I think the state has reached that point. 

So, depending on what happens in the final couple of months of the race, I may soon be seriously looking at rentals in Florida and/or North Carolina. 

I hate to admit this, but that's how it is. 

[FairBol]

OK, quick take from someone who's a bit on the inside. 

I've been working my butt off for the Stefanowski campaign; mostly, my work involves phone banking and canvassing of likely voters who are registered as unaffiliateds.  What I'm hearing is that a lot of people are upset with governor Ned Lamont (yet some of the aforementioned are still undecided). 

The latest major poll, taken by Quinnipiac University in May, shows Lamont +8.  I think the race is somewhat closer...let's say about six points between the two major candidates. 

The "x factor" here is Libertarian nominee Aaron Lewis.  Lately, he's been making a major push for votes, claiming that Stefanowski is simply "Ned in a different color bow tie".  The ultimate outcome will, IMHO, hinge greatly on how many votes the LPer can get. 

If Lewis is held to a low number of votes, say 1.5 percent or lower...I think Stefanowski has a chance (knock on wood). 

If not....I hate to say it, but I believe Lamont will be re-elected (hopefully not). 

Anywho, that's my take. 

Do you think Rs have a realistic shot at the legistlature, given some of their insane overperformances in state legislative seats?

The Connecticut General Assembly? Yeah, I think they do (knocks on wood again). 

And former CT House Minority Leader Themis Klarides is mounting a serious challenge to Senator Richard (or as I call him, "Dick") Blumenthal.  She has to survive a three-way primary, but if she does...I'm optimistic about her chances. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

OK, quick take from someone who's a bit on the inside. 

I've been working my butt off for the Stefanowski campaign; mostly, my work involves phone banking and canvassing of likely voters who are registered as unaffiliateds.  What I'm hearing is that a lot of people are upset with governor Ned Lamont (yet some of the aforementioned are still undecided). 

The latest major poll, taken by Quinnipiac University in May, shows Lamont +8.  I think the race is somewhat closer...let's say about six points between the two major candidates. 

The "x factor" here is Libertarian nominee Aaron Lewis.  Lately, he's been making a major push for votes, claiming that Stefanowski is simply "Ned in a different color bow tie".  The ultimate outcome will, IMHO, hinge greatly on how many votes the LPer can get. 

If Lewis is held to a low number of votes, say 1.5 percent or lower...I think Stefanowski has a chance (knock on wood). 

If not....I hate to say it, but I believe Lamont will be re-elected (hopefully not). 

Anywho, that's my take. 

Do you think Rs have a realistic shot at the legistlature, given some of their insane overperformances in state legislative seats?

The Connecticut General Assembly? Yeah, I think they do (knocks on wood again). 

And former CT House Minority Leader Themis Klarides is mounting a serious challenge to Senator Richard (or as I call him, "Dick") Blumenthal.  She has to survive a three-way primary, but if she does...I'm optimistic about her chances. 

I generally haven't thought of CT-Sen as very competitive cause we haven't seen much success of candidates overcoming that sort of partisanship, even if they might be running a strong campaign. And from what I've seen Klarides campaign doesn't seem particuarly notable, she just isn't going full nut MAGA in her campaign.

I could def see the race being closer than many expect, perhaps within single digits but I don't see it as competitive.

[FairBol]

OK, quick take from someone who's a bit on the inside. 

I've been working my butt off for the Stefanowski campaign; mostly, my work involves phone banking and canvassing of likely voters who are registered as unaffiliateds.  What I'm hearing is that a lot of people are upset with governor Ned Lamont (yet some of the aforementioned are still undecided). 

The latest major poll, taken by Quinnipiac University in May, shows Lamont +8.  I think the race is somewhat closer...let's say about six points between the two major candidates. 

The "x factor" here is Libertarian nominee Aaron Lewis.  Lately, he's been making a major push for votes, claiming that Stefanowski is simply "Ned in a different color bow tie".  The ultimate outcome will, IMHO, hinge greatly on how many votes the LPer can get. 

If Lewis is held to a low number of votes, say 1.5 percent or lower...I think Stefanowski has a chance (knock on wood). 

If not....I hate to say it, but I believe Lamont will be re-elected (hopefully not). 

Anywho, that's my take. 

Do you think Rs have a realistic shot at the legistlature, given some of their insane overperformances in state legislative seats?

The Connecticut General Assembly? Yeah, I think they do (knocks on wood again). 

And former CT House Minority Leader Themis Klarides is mounting a serious challenge to Senator Richard (or as I call him, "Dick") Blumenthal.  She has to survive a three-way primary, but if she does...I'm optimistic about her chances. 

I generally haven't thought of CT-Sen as very competitive cause we haven't seen much success of candidates overcoming that sort of partisanship, even if they might be running a strong campaign. And from what I've seen Klarides campaign doesn't seem particuarly notable, she just isn't going full nut MAGA in her campaign.

I could def see the race being closer than many expect, perhaps within single digits but I don't see it as competitive.

You can't really go full MAGA in CT.  The state's just too blue.