What would the Democratic equivalent to Texas politically be?
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December 02, 2021, 08:18:32 PM

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  What would the Democratic equivalent to Texas politically be?
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Author Topic: What would the Democratic equivalent to Texas politically be?  (Read 412 times)
Samof94
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« on: August 01, 2021, 07:06:22 AM »

By this, I mean a state where the GOP has done these things:
-won lower level seats in recent years
-be relatively close in presidential elections
-has favorable trends for it
-has not actually flipped in a long time
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beesley
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2021, 07:08:31 AM »

Minnesota, except the trends don't favour the GOP and they're very, very unlikely to flip it, whereas Dems do have a shot at Texas in the not-too-distant-future. If Bush didn't win New Hampshire in 2000 that might be a better fit though, and Maine may also qualify.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2021, 09:13:58 AM »

New Mexico.
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Samof94
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2021, 08:21:30 AM »

Minnesota, except the trends don't favour the GOP and they're very, very unlikely to flip it, whereas Dems do have a shot at Texas in the not-too-distant-future. If Bush didn't win New Hampshire in 2000 that might be a better fit though, and Maine may also qualify.
NH would work given the last time it flipped was 2000 and it is a good fit for the GOP.
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Proud Houstonian
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2021, 07:26:13 PM »

New Hampshire
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2021, 07:32:08 PM »
« Edited: August 03, 2021, 08:54:47 AM by Calthrina950 »

Minnesota. The state hasn't voted Republican since 1972, but has been within single digits in almost every election since then except for those of 1976, 1992, 1996, and 2008, and has seen its rural and working class areas trend heavily Republican in recent years, a trend which gave the Republicans false hope there last year.

The Democrats have made inroads in the traditionally Republican Twin Cities suburbs, and these inroads have counterbalanced the Republican gains elsewhere. This is similar to Texas, which has seen the Democrats gain in urban and suburban areas but Republicans gain in the Rio Grande Valley. The difference however, is that Minnesota remains stubbornly Democratic, while Texas is on its way to becoming a swing state.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2021, 08:15:23 PM »

Nevada?
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2021, 07:14:37 AM »

It's IL, obviously, IL during the 90s trended R and after Blago it trended R but after Kirk had his stroke, the Rs collapsed
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2021, 08:35:47 AM »

I don't think so. It only last voted Republican for Dubya '04, and has been much closer than TX was.
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AGA
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« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2021, 10:24:11 AM »

Maine
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Samof94
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2021, 06:24:29 AM »

Thatís a great pick.
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THG
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2021, 09:36:05 PM »

Maine, Minnesota, or New Mexico.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2021, 06:49:31 PM »


No. Just no.
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CentristRepublican
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2021, 07:05:39 PM »


Good point; NV's always been a lean Democratic state that trended rightward in 2020 - but in reality, the GOP at a state level has pretty much collapsed.

 NV03 was represented from 2011 to 2017 by a Republican (Joe Heck) and has since been represented by a Democrat.

 Somewhat similarly, NV04 was represented from 2015 to 2017 by a Republican (Crescent Hardy) but only by a Democrat since then.

  From 2001 to 2019, for eighteen whole years (except a brief period when the seat was vacant), NV's Class 1 seat was held by a Republican (first John Ensign, then Dean Heller). However, in 2018 Heller lost reelection to first-term representative Jacky Rosen by five points.

 And most poignantally for the GOP, they lost the Nevada governership. Brian Sandoval - a Republican! - had been reelected in 2014 with over 70% of the vote, carrying all of NV's counties with over 60% and all but Clark County with over 70%. But in 2018, a retiring Sandoval was replaced by Steve Sisolak (D), who beat Adam Laxalt (R) by a pretty decent margin.
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