GA-PPP: Warnock +2 over Walker, +3 over Loeffler, +8 over Black

[Gracile]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/GeorgiaResults.pdf

General Election
Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 48%
Herschel Walker (R) 46%

Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 47%
Kelly Loeffler (R) 44%

Raphael Warnock (D-inc) 46%
Gary Black (R) 38%

Favorabilities
Herschel Walker - 41/28
Kelly Loeffler - 28/47
Gary Black - 15/15

Warnock job approval - 43/42

Survey of 622 voters, August 4-5, 2021

[MT Treasurer]

Biden Approval: 46/48 (-2)

Maybe the Republicans should just run Biden Midterm (R) here.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Well, most people don't know about Herschel Walker's detestable personal life, so those numbers would drop if he was the actual nominee.

And I don't see how Kelly Loeffler losing the incumbency advantage would make her more capable of beating Warnock.  Nor do I think she has any interest in running again.

So it's good to see Warnock over Black.  Unfortunately Black is such an unknown that his numbers will probably rise once he gets more known.  The Warnock campaign should start defining Black early to try and lock up this seat.

[Annatar]

Biden’s vote share was around 2% higher nationally than it was in GA, if the relative approval of Biden in GA is the same, implies he is at 48% approval nationally. Certainly will be a difficult senate seat for democrats to hold, if Biden’s approval in GA goes below 45% will be almost impossible, track record in highly polarized states of incumbent party holding senate seats in midterm when their president is below 50% let alone 45% approval is not good.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden Approval: 46/48 (-2)

Maybe the Republicans should just run Biden Midterm (R) here.

Biden just produce 900 K new jibs, if Rs can't win in GA forget the Senate

Rs care do much about Biden Approvals, they haven't lead except for NH in a single 304 Senate race, Fetterman, Kelly, and Bennett lead by nine and the Change poll in March had D's leading in WI 48(44

[Brittain33]

Once Kelly Loeffler gets out there campaigning with her "jes folks" trucker hat, jeans, plaid shirt, and puffy vest, regular Georgians will see she's just like them and send her back to Washington!

[Sir Mohamed]

Pure tossup -> Pure tossup.

PPP is a bit D-friendly. Since it's early, the polls hardly matter much if anything.

[TodayJunior]

We've seen this pattern before in another formerly red state now solidly blue (Virginia and/or Colorado). If the The GOP knows what's good for them (they don't), they should get ahead of this tidal wave and abandon Georgia and go all in on Wisconsin/Pennsylvania, which will prove to be crucial to their electoral math going forward. Atlanta/Georgia is going to be another Chicago/Illinois, surrounded by red/purplish-red areas/states.

[Xing]

Georgia was one place where polls were accurate, and this will not be easy for Republicans to pick up. Lean D.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Pure tossup -> Pure tossup.

PPP is a bit D-friendly. Since it's early, the polls hardly matter much if anything.

"Bit D friendly" is putting it midly.. double digit misses is common for PPP.

[UncleSam]

We've seen this pattern before in another formerly red state now solidly blue (Virginia and/or Colorado). If the The GOP knows what's good for them (they don't), they should get ahead of this tidal wave and abandon Georgia and go all in on Wisconsin/Pennsylvania, which will prove to be crucial to their electoral math going forward. Atlanta/Georgia is going to be another Chicago/Illinois, surrounded by red/purplish-red areas/states.

lol what

Yes GA will probably end up trending into CO territory but it’s nowhere near that as of now. Why would the GOP abandon a state where they totally control the state government and where they lost two senate races by <2% a year ago.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm skeptical that Black would do much worse than Walker. Georgia's a pretty polarized state, so it doesn't matter that much who the GOP nominates. Remains Tilt R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Didn't Snowlabrador say it was Tilt R last time and D's won

[Gracile]

Pure tossup -> Pure tossup.

PPP is a bit D-friendly. Since it's early, the polls hardly matter much if anything.

"Bit D friendly" is putting it midly.. double digit misses is common for PPP.

This is true in several other states they have polled, but PPP was pretty much on the money in GA throughout 2020:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GeorgiaOctober2020Poll.pdf
https://www.afscme.org/press/reports/polling/GeorgiaResults.pdf
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945877-GeorgiaResults1-1.html
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=380120.0

I generally don't put much stock in polls nowadays FWIW, but it seems unwise to dismiss polls from one of the few states where pollsters across the board basically nailed the final result (as well as applying PPP's poll results from entirely different electorates to this electorate).

[TodayJunior]

We've seen this pattern before in another formerly red state now solidly blue (Virginia and/or Colorado). If the The GOP knows what's good for them (they don't), they should get ahead of this tidal wave and abandon Georgia and go all in on Wisconsin/Pennsylvania, which will prove to be crucial to their electoral math going forward. Atlanta/Georgia is going to be another Chicago/Illinois, surrounded by red/purplish-red areas/states.

lol what

Yes GA will probably end up trending into CO territory but it’s nowhere near that as of now. Why would the GOP abandon a state where they totally control the state government and where they lost two senate races by <2% a year ago.

Because of the way it’s trending. I don’t expect them to actually abandon it (yet), but I believe it’s going to end up being wasted dollars for them, like Virginia. If you look at Virginia, they have won only one statewide race in an off-year (2009) since the big flip (2006 VA-SEN). Georgia’s big flip occurred in 2020 and increased the Dem margin in 2021. It’s only going to get worse for the GOP there, but it’s their own fault. They fell asleep at the wheel as they got used to winning for decades and being considered a red state; they didn't really invest in party infrastructure and their day of reckoning came. As a side note, contrast the GOP infrastructure in Florida - say what you will, but they're ruthless people and they know how to win statewide up and down the ballot despite being a 50/50 state for decades.

Back to Georgia - the Dems were able to organize under the radar and finally overtook the GOP. The Georgia Republican party's days of dominance are over and in total free fall, and they know it - just look at all the voter restrictions they're desperately trying to pass to hold back the tidal wave building up against them. They are playing catch-up but it will be illusive and every statewide office will flip Dem, like Virginia and Colorado.  

[UncleSam]

We've seen this pattern before in another formerly red state now solidly blue (Virginia and/or Colorado). If the The GOP knows what's good for them (they don't), they should get ahead of this tidal wave and abandon Georgia and go all in on Wisconsin/Pennsylvania, which will prove to be crucial to their electoral math going forward. Atlanta/Georgia is going to be another Chicago/Illinois, surrounded by red/purplish-red areas/states.

lol what

Yes GA will probably end up trending into CO territory but it’s nowhere near that as of now. Why would the GOP abandon a state where they totally control the state government and where they lost two senate races by <2% a year ago.

Because of the way it’s trending. I don’t expect them to actually abandon it (yet), but I believe it’s going to end up being wasted dollars for them, like Virginia. If you look at Virginia, they have won only one statewide race in an off-year (2009) since the big flip (2006 VA-SEN). Georgia’s big flip occurred in 2020 and increased the Dem margin in 2021. It’s only going to get worse for the GOP there, but it’s their own fault. They fell asleep at the wheel as they got used to winning for decades and being considered a red state; they didn't really invest in party infrastructure and their day of reckoning came. As a side note, contrast the GOP infrastructure in Florida - say what you will, but they're ruthless people and they know how to win statewide up and down the ballot despite being a 50/50 state for decades.

Back to Georgia - the Dems were able to organize under the radar and finally overtook the GOP. The Georgia Republican party's days of dominance are over and in total free fall, and they know it - just look at all the voter restrictions they're desperately trying to pass to hold back the tidal wave building up against them. They are playing catch-up but it will be illusive and every statewide office will flip Dem, like Virginia and Colorado.  

While I agree that it is likely statewide offices will be a D sweep by 2030, it’s crazy to suggest that spending money in GA is a waste for the GOP in 2022. Probably the last cycle GA will be competitive in will be 2024 if the GOP wins the presidency or 2026 if the Dems win in 2024. By 2026 it’ll take favorable midterm conditions for Rs to be competitive there, and by 2028 it’ll be pretty much gone.

Back to this race however, I do think it’s a pure tossup for now. Warnock needs to define his opposition early and needs to keep Dem enthusiasm high, which could be tough in a Biden midterm. He will have a strong cash advantage, however, and the Abrams infrastructure machine as well (and probably Abrams herself running alongside him).

[Progressive Pessimist]

This poll might actually be irrelevant since it's looking increasingly likelier that Walker won't run. But that's a good thing since, assuming this and other polls are accurate, he might have been the GOP's best bet here to compete against Warnock.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This race is Tilt D. The doomers dooming about Georgia are insufferable.

[Devils30]

GA is an inelastic state. Possible the Dems have a bad night and still pull it off here due to trends.

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely D if Walker runs.

Tilt R with Warnock or Black.

Lean R with a Republican from the Congressional Delegation(except for Marjorie Taylor Greene).

Lean D with Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is an inelastic state. Possible the Dems have a bad night and still pull it off here due to trends.

You know this race is a Runoff if Warnock doesn't get to 50.1 and Rs are doing everything to give Rs a structural advantage in the Runoff

[Devils30]

GA is an inelastic state. Possible the Dems have a bad night and still pull it off here due to trends.

You know this race is a Runoff if Warnock doesn't get to 50.1 and Rs are doing everything to give Rs a structural advantage in the Runoff

Worked really well for the Rs in January!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Gary Black looks old as hell and would do nothing to reverse the devastating trends for Republicans in The Atlanta metro.

Walker and Loeffler are jokes. Buddy Carter probably won't even win primary.

Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gary Black looks old as hell and would do nothing to reverse the devastating trends for Republicans in The Atlanta metro.

Walker and Loeffler are jokes. Buddy Carter probably won't even win primary.

Lean D.

This is a runoff state and Warnock can easily lose

[SnowLabrador]

Gary Black looks old as hell and would do nothing to reverse the devastating trends for Republicans in The Atlanta metro.

Walker and Loeffler are jokes. Buddy Carter probably won't even win primary.

Lean D.

Except that the state GOP now has the power to overturn the election if Warnock wins.