When will a Democratic candidate carry a county in West Virginia?

[Don't Tread on Me]

While Barack Obama was the last Democratic nominee to carry a county in West Virginia, many of the counties, particularly in coal country have rapidly moved out of Dems. reaches. When do you think the next Democratic nominee will regain a county in this once powerful blue state?

[Roll Roons]

Very possibly 2024. Biden only lost Monongalia County by about 500 votes.

[THG]

Monongalia County is winnable, so possibly 2024.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Monongalia County is winnable, so possibly 2024.

I also think Kanawha and Jefferson are also potential pickups, given the right circumstances--i.e. a Democratic rebound in rural areas, a big Democratic landslide, or, in the case of the latter, some sort large-scale infrastructure investment which increases ties to DC, whether via highway construction, more frequent MARC trains, or commuter rail to edge cities in NoVa, which are closer by than the Maryland route served currently.

[THG]

Monongalia County is winnable, so possibly 2024.

I also think Kanawha and Jefferson are also potential pickups, given the right circumstances--i.e. a Democratic rebound in rural areas, a big Democratic landslide, or, in the case of the latter, some sort large-scale infrastructure investment which increases ties to DC, whether via highway construction, more frequent MARC trains, or commuter rail to edge cities in NoVa, which are closer by than the Maryland route served currently.

Those are more unlikely- maybe they'd be possible 10 or so years down the line.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Monongalia County is winnable, so possibly 2024.

I also think Kanawha and Jefferson are also potential pickups, given the right circumstances--i.e. a Democratic rebound in rural areas, a big Democratic landslide, or, in the case of the latter, some sort large-scale infrastructure investment which increases ties to DC, whether via highway construction, more frequent MARC trains, or commuter rail to edge cities in NoVa, which are closer by than the Maryland route served currently.

Those are more unlikely- maybe they'd be possible 10 or so years down the line.

I do think that West Virginia has more potential to swing around than a lot of the country--the people in Coal Country aren't Democrats any more but that doesn't mean that they're rock-ribbed Republicans in the way that people in Eastern Tennessee are.

A candidate who's very strong, and who's especially well-suited to appeal to poor white voters, could IMO get decent swings in a lot of the historically industrial portions of WV. Joe Biden managed to do that and that was despite BLM being a major campaign issue and nearly 10 years of chronic decline for Dems in Appalachia.

In any case, that says more about Kanawha than Jefferson, which doesn't have the same union Dem history, but I hope it gives a little clarity as to why I'm a little hopeful in this case.

[THG]

Monongalia County is winnable, so possibly 2024.

I also think Kanawha and Jefferson are also potential pickups, given the right circumstances--i.e. a Democratic rebound in rural areas, a big Democratic landslide, or, in the case of the latter, some sort large-scale infrastructure investment which increases ties to DC, whether via highway construction, more frequent MARC trains, or commuter rail to edge cities in NoVa, which are closer by than the Maryland route served currently.

Those are more unlikely- maybe they'd be possible 10 or so years down the line.

I do think that West Virginia has more potential to swing around than a lot of the country--the people in Coal Country aren't Democrats any more but that doesn't mean that they're rock-ribbed Republicans in the way that people in Eastern Tennessee are.

A candidate who's very strong, and who's especially well-suited to appeal to poor white voters, could IMO get decent swings in a lot of the historically industrial portions of WV. Joe Biden managed to do that and that was despite BLM being a major campaign issue and nearly 10 years of chronic decline for Dems in Appalachia.

In any case, that says more about Kanawha than Jefferson, which doesn't have the same union Dem history, but I hope it gives a little clarity as to why I'm a little hopeful in this case.

Biden barely swung those regions in WV, and while BLM doesn't help there, it isn't the first priority for those voters either.

If anything the Dem's anti-coal and anti-oil views will ensure that those swings don't occur.

[Fascism Must Be Defeated]

Monongalia County is winnable, so possibly 2024.

I also think Kanawha and Jefferson are also potential pickups, given the right circumstances--i.e. a Democratic rebound in rural areas, a big Democratic landslide, or, in the case of the latter, some sort large-scale infrastructure investment which increases ties to DC, whether via highway construction, more frequent MARC trains, or commuter rail to edge cities in NoVa, which are closer by than the Maryland route served currently.

Those are more unlikely- maybe they'd be possible 10 or so years down the line.

I do think that West Virginia has more potential to swing around than a lot of the country--the people in Coal Country aren't Democrats any more but that doesn't mean that they're rock-ribbed Republicans in the way that people in Eastern Tennessee are.

A candidate who's very strong, and who's especially well-suited to appeal to poor white voters, could IMO get decent swings in a lot of the historically industrial portions of WV. Joe Biden managed to do that and that was despite BLM being a major campaign issue and nearly 10 years of chronic decline for Dems in Appalachia.

In any case, that says more about Kanawha than Jefferson, which doesn't have the same union Dem history, but I hope it gives a little clarity as to why I'm a little hopeful in this case.

Biden barely swung those regions in WV, and while BLM doesn't help there, it isn't the first priority for those voters either.

If anything the Dem's anti-coal and anti-oil views will ensure that those swings don't occur.

Again, I don't think this sort of thing is plausible outside of a big Democratic victory or a candidate who's uniquely suited to the region, and only really applies to Kanawha--democrats aren't winning back Mingo or McDowell.

[Senator Golden]

I think that if Joe Biden runs again in 2024 he will likely win Monongalia County by a couple of points. It shifted by 9 from 2016 to 2020. Overall it is growing and Dems should be optimistic about winning it. Trump and Justice only won it by 1 percent.

As for the other counties I think that Kanawha and Cabell counties could go blue for a very strong dem statewide candidate but not for president. They both shifted by around 5 points toward Biden and he got at least 40 percent in both.

The one part of the state that is significantly growing is the Eastern panhandle which has Berkeley and Jefferson counties. Jefferson is somewhat competitive with Trump winning it by only 11 and Berkeley went trump by 29. However both of these counties are trending Democratic as the DC exurbs expand. I think they will start voting blue in the next couple decades as they continue to grow. Dems should overall be optimistic about finally winning counties as WV shifted left for the first time in over 20 years.

[Alben Barkley]

Monongalia flips in 2024, write it down.

Jefferson could also flip by 2028 at least.

Kanawha and maybe Cabell aren't totally out of reach either, but probably a bit farther off short of a landslide.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

If Monongalia doesn’t flip in 2024, it will in 2028.

[DS0816]

While Barack Obama was the last Democratic nominee to carry a county in West Virginia, many of the counties, particularly in coal country have rapidly moved out of Dems. reaches. When do you think the next Democratic nominee will regain a county in this once powerful blue state?

Comments by other forum members are well-informed with helping to answer your question. But, rather than addressing particular counties, I think West Virginia will continue to be one of the Top 5 best-performed states for Republicans at the level of U.S. President. What effectively realigned West Virginia was NAFTA on the watch of Democratic-affiliated 42nd U.S. president Bill Clinton.

[CentristRepublican]

Monongalia County, WV, as previously mentioned, voted for Trump by plurality. Trump's margin of 1.24% was down from his double-digit margin four years earlier considerably (and also down from Mitt Romney's 2012 margin considerably). There are also a few urban counties in WV (urban by WV standards) that are gravitating slowly leftward (or staying the same, which is very good by WV standards, since the rest of the state has swung hard to the right), but they have a long way to go (other than Monongalia, Biden didn't come within even 10% of winning a single county). So Monangolia is the only real short-term pickup opportunity for Democrats, though there might be a few more in the long term. I voted that a county (namely, Monongalia) flips in the 2020s itself.

Monongalia flips in 2024, write it down.

Jefferson could also flip by 2028 at least.

Kanawha and maybe Cabell aren't totally out of reach either, but probably a bit farther off short of a landslide.

I don't know about Jefferson...though not as much as most other WV counties, Jefferson County actually shifted rightward from 2012 to 2020, going from a 3.8-point Romney win to a 10.5-point Trump win in 2020. I'd call it a long-term pickup for Democrats (though I agree, Monangalia will likely go blue in 2024 itself given its prominent leftward shift).

[Calthrina950]

2024. As was noted on here, Monongalia County came very close to voting for Biden, and I'm still surprised he didn't win it outright last year. I also expect 2024 to be the year that Democrats finally break the Republican lock on Oklahoma by carrying Oklahoma County, which is another county Biden came very close to winning last year.

[Chips]

Certainly possible for Monongalia to flip in 2024 but probably not in a GOP victory nationwide. I believe the next Dem to win nationwide will win the county which could plausibly be 2024, 2028 or 2032.

[Non Swing Voter]

The funny thing about a state like West Virginia is it's easy to look at the Trump margin and think it's full of the most conservative people in the country.  It's definitely a conservative state but the people aren't really as conservative as most people in the Deep South (even culturally speaking).  It's just that the vast majority of people lean Republican to a large degree.  But being in Virginia and interacting with a lot of people from West Virginia, you can tell they don't have the same type of conservative bent as rural people in Georgia for instance.  I also think the area just past Loudoun is moderating in a substantial way.  But those 3 counties were only about 1/8 of the statewide vote in 2020.