FL- St Pete is not an accurate poll at all

[THG]

1) https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/414865-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-7-points-in-florida-governor-race

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day/

^ This was before the election in 2018.

Yeah, remember the now infamous Gillum+5 poll? It was them. Using their own logic DeSantis probably would defeat Crist by 7 or 8 points (which is what I expect the margin to be in 2022).

2) They also had Fried tied with DeSantis last month and didn't poll Crist. Now according to their inaccurate methodology, Ron is leading Fried by 3-4 points and tied with Crist. So would that not technically mean that Ron has actually expanded his lead inspite the COVID surge in Florida? What?

3) It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando (LMFAOOOOO). But Ron is allegedly down big in Miami, which swung heavily Republican in 2020. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well (he barely got any of the Republican vote as an independent in 2010, and siphoned off far more Dem support) makes no sense.




I know certain people on here love wishcasting about Florida, but if this poll is really your best source, I do not know what to tell you. I may not take you seriously no matter how hard you try to sell me this gobbledygook- but some of you might want a career in sales, because you lot are brilliant at attempting to justify this drivel.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

First of all, calm down. Second of all, I do not think this needed an entire new thread. You can air your grievances about the pollster in the original.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs know that it for the party if we solidify DC Statehood by winning 53 votes and Hold the House

[THG]

First of all, calm down. Second of all, I do not think this needed an entire new thread. You can air your grievances about the pollster in the original.

Fair enough- this is simply a compilation of the worst hits of the aforementioned pollster.

[Biden his time]

1) https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/414865-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-7-points-in-florida-governor-race

^ This was before the election in 2018.

Yeah, remember the now infamous Gillum+7 poll? It was them. Using their own logic DeSantis probably would defeat Crist by 7 or 8 points (which is what I expect the margin to be in 2022).

Lol you are linking to a Quinnipiac poll.

This is how the polling outfit "St. Pete Polls" actually has performed:

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+1.1%)
In the 2018 U.S. Senate Election in FL, it underestimated the Republican margin by 3.8% (final poll D+3.7%)
In the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+4.1%)

St. Pete isn't the gospel and their polls have a pretty consistent error that overestimates Democratic support. Yet it isn't as bad as you make it out to be either.

[THG]

1) https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/414865-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-7-points-in-florida-governor-race

^ This was before the election in 2018.

Yeah, remember the now infamous Gillum+7 poll? It was them. Using their own logic DeSantis probably would defeat Crist by 7 or 8 points (which is what I expect the margin to be in 2022).

Lol you are linking to a Quinnipiac poll.

This is how the polling outfit "St. Pete Polls" actually has performed:

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+1.1%)
In the 2018 U.S. Senate Election in FL, it underestimated the Republican margin by 3.8% (final poll D+3.7%)
In the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+4.1%)

They also had Fried tied with DeSantis last month, and had this big hit:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day/

I cannot fathom defending such a garbage poll, lol. They have been consistently terrible and cannot figure out sample sizes. And they’re especially horrible months or years before an election.

[Donerail]

You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?

[THG]

You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?

You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.

I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.

[Donerail]

You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?

You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.

I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.

It's indicative of the current state of the electorate, which is all that polls ever are or claim to be; their track record has a mild Dem house effect but it's generally pretty good. You're concluding that it's "obviously incorrect" based on your personal biases — you don't want this poll to be true. But, unfortunately, that's not how polling works.

[THG]

You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?

You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.

I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.

It's indicative of the current state of the electorate, which is all that polls ever are or claim to be; their track record has a mild Dem house effect but it's generally pretty good. You're concluding that it's "obviously incorrect" based on your personal biases — you don't want this poll to be true. But, unfortunately, that's not how polling works.

Considering the fact that they had Gillum and Nelson winning by 5 or so points in their final poll and Biden winning by anywhere from 1 to 6 points in Florida, I'd say that they are certainly not indicative of the current state of the electorate in Florida.

I know that this poll isn't true, because they have historically been off by around 5 points at a MINIMUM. This means that my opinion isn't based off of personal biases but facts.

You may want it to be true, but it isn't, and if you choose to use a poll that has historically been wrong by around 5 points at minimum, feel free to do so. It doesn't make you any more correct or any less delusional. 

[Donerail]

Polling is going to fluctuate. It’s August 2021. What we can tentatively conclude from this, despite its house effect, is that public opinion is shifting against DeSantis. This makes sense — it has been a very bad week for him. Taking away control from local school districts to set policy is never a popular move, covid hospitalizations are at an all-time high, hospital wait times are alarmingly long (upwards of three hours in some places).

People have generally been happy not to deal with the mask/lockdown stuff, but school starts next week, and — rightly or not (most of the data says it’s not a big risk to kids, but there’s still a few dozen kids hospitalized with it) — people are anxious and worried about their kids, maybe anxious and worried about their own health. And some of them are angry at the Governor, who has not managed the situation well at all; I’m not talking about masks but about simple stuff like releasing data, which he’s been refusing to do. We don’t even know the number of hospitalizations or deaths by county.

Again, it’s August 2021. Polling will shift a few dozen more times before Election Day. This poll isn’t a “prediction” of what’s going to happen in November 2022. What it can tell us: 1. it’s fairly competitive right now (as elections in Florida always are), and 2. recent events might have dented DeSantis’s image a bit.

And, as a final note: the fact that every MAGA loser here and on Twitter has spent the last few hours in a frothing rage about how bad the poll is is not the signal of confidence that you think it is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All we know is the poll that said DeSantis was up 60/40 lied to us, UWS, and 2016 said that DeSantis was gonna win a landslide and D's should hang it up it's a Red wave, they are nowhere to be found because they probably have more than one account

[Xing]

Calm down, dude. Freaking out over a poll showing your boy down 1 isn’t good for your health.

[Roll Roons]

Calm down, dude. Freaking out over a poll showing your boy down 1 isn’t good for your health.

In all seriousness, Florida polls have been pretty awful for the past couple cycles so there's good reason to be skeptical.

[TodayJunior]

Just a friendly reminder that Florida is STILL A BATTLEGROUND!!!! This shouldn’t surprise anyone.

[Xing]

Calm down, dude. Freaking out over a poll showing your boy down 1 isn’t good for your health.

In all seriousness, Florida polls have been pretty awful for the past couple cycles so there's good reason to be skeptical.

Sure, I don’t think many people will deny this, but it’s not necessary to make 30 posts and start a new thread about it.

[slothdem]

This thread is unreal. Is it impossible for you to believe that in an extremely close state, where the previous gubernatorial election was decided by 0.4%, DeSantis would be trailing a well-known challenger by *1 point* in a poll taken at what is likely the absolute nadir of DeSantis's tenure? Are you just not able to process a reality where DeSantis wins his gubernatorial election by *only* 3 or 4 points? Which is a margin of victory that happens to match the most recent presidential election that was considered a Republican slam dunk performance?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has done a fine job as Prez, and polls are underestimating him, if Trump had the same polls that Biden has now Rs would be talking sweep Crist lost to Rick Scott in a Red wave year narrowly it's possible he can be Gov, I rather have Fried but there can be split polling FL Crist, Rubio, OH Renacci and Ryan and GA Warnock, Jones unless Abrams run

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This thread is unreal. Is it impossible for you to believe that in an extremely close state, where the previous gubernatorial election was decided by 0.4%, DeSantis would be trailing a well-known challenger by *1 point* in a poll taken at what is likely the absolute nadir of DeSantis's tenure? Are you just not able to process a reality where DeSantis wins his gubernatorial election by *only* 3 or 4 points? Which is a margin of victory that happens to match the most recent presidential election that was considered a Republican slam dunk performance?

It's called split voting Rubio/Crist, Ryan/Renacci, Warnock/Jones

[NYDem]

Did the people at St. Pete’s polling run over your dog or something? 18/63 posts in the actual thread for the poll are you complaining, then you made a whole new thread to complain in, which you’ve already commented in 5 times. It’s a bit of an overreaction.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The right is now convinced that D's are gonna lose both the H and S because QU has Biden at 46/43 Approval you should see how many post this poster and other have posted in pbower2A Approvalls

But, we are a yr away from an Election

Also, D's did benefit last year on handed out Stimulus checks now there aren't anymore thats a Fact

[Chips]

The pollster has had some flaws in the past but the news can't hurt badly for Crist no matter how you spin it.

I always thought that DeSantis wasn't going to win by any more than a Bush 2004 margin and that if he was approaching double-digits, it's going to be a very good night for the GOP in general.

[THG]

The pollster has had some flaws in the past but the news can't hurt badly for Crist no matter how you spin it.

I always thought that DeSantis wasn't going to win by any more than a Bush 2004 margin and that if he was approaching double-digits, it's going to be a very good night for the GOP in general.

I always had DeSantis winning by 5-9 points vs Charlie.

I don’t expect him to win by 15 like some people on here do.