FL- St Pete is not an accurate poll at all
THG:
Quote from: JAMES JEROME BELL on August 03, 2021, 06:44:10 PM
Quote from: Chip Roy’s Burner on August 03, 2021, 06:28:01 PM
1) https://thehill.com/campaign-polls/414865-poll-gillum-leads-desantis-by-7-points-in-florida-governor-race
^ This was before the election in 2018.
Yeah, remember the now infamous Gillum+7 poll? It was them. Using their own logic DeSantis probably would defeat Crist by 7 or 8 points (which is what I expect the margin to be in 2022).
Lol you are linking to a Quinnipiac poll.
This is how the polling outfit "St. Pete Polls" actually has performed:
In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+1.1%)
In the 2018 U.S. Senate Election in FL, it underestimated the Republican margin by 3.8% (final poll D+3.7%)
In the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5% (final poll D+4.1%)
They also had Fried tied with DeSantis last month, and had this big hit:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day/
I cannot fathom defending such a garbage poll, lol. They have been consistently terrible and cannot figure out sample sizes. And they’re especially horrible months or years before an election.
Donerail:
You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?
THG:
Quote from: Donerail on August 03, 2021, 07:26:30 PM
You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?
You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.
I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.
Donerail:
Quote from: Chip Roy’s Burner on August 03, 2021, 07:28:36 PM
Quote from: Donerail on August 03, 2021, 07:26:30 PM
You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?
You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.
I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.
It's indicative of the current state of the electorate, which is all that polls ever are or claim to be; their track record has a mild Dem house effect but it's generally pretty good. You're concluding that it's "obviously incorrect" based on your personal biases — you don't want this poll to be true. But, unfortunately, that's not how polling works.
THG:
Quote from: Donerail on August 03, 2021, 08:03:09 PM
Quote from: Chip Roy’s Burner on August 03, 2021, 07:28:36 PM
Quote from: Donerail on August 03, 2021, 07:26:30 PM
You are sweating sooo hard over a poll in August. Has the possibility that your new god-emperor may not be invulnerable shattered your brain or something?
You’re the one touting a historically garbage poll as fact, not me.
I simply get annoyed when people begin to act like garbage polls from a year before the election are indicative of anything- especially when they’re so obviously incorrect.
It's indicative of the current state of the electorate, which is all that polls ever are or claim to be; their track record has a mild Dem house effect but it's generally pretty good. You're concluding that it's "obviously incorrect" based on your personal biases — you don't want this poll to be true. But, unfortunately, that's not how polling works.
Considering the fact that they had Gillum and Nelson winning by 5 or so points in their final poll and Biden winning by anywhere from 1 to 6 points in Florida, I'd say that they are certainly not indicative of the current state of the electorate in Florida.
I know that this poll isn't true, because they have historically been off by around 5 points at a MINIMUM. This means that my opinion isn't based off of personal biases but facts.
You may want it to be true, but it isn't, and if you choose to use a poll that has historically been wrong by around 5 points at minimum, feel free to do so. It doesn't make you any more correct or any less delusional.
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