FL-St. Pete: Crist +1

[THG]

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

1. A poll is not a "prediction." It is a snapshot of the sentiments of the electorate, based on a representative subsample, at the time the poll is taken. If you do not understand that, I would recommend you get out of the polling subforums and stick to those more suited to your IQ, like US General Discussion.
2. Their poll in July was Biden 50-44. Their poll in November — the closest thing to a "prediction" — was 49-48.

So their predictions were

1) Wrong in November

2) Horribly wrong a few months out

So all this tells me is that this is a garbage poll that is especially inaccurate months before an election, let alone years before.

[Donerail]

1. A poll is not a "prediction." It is a snapshot of the sentiments of the electorate, based on a representative subsample, at the time the poll is taken. If you do not understand that, I would recommend you get out of the polling subforums and stick to those more suited to your IQ, like US General Discussion.
2. Their poll in July was Biden 50-44. Their poll in November — the closest thing to a "prediction" — was 49-48.

So their predictions were

1) Wrong in November

2) Horribly wrong a few months out

So all this tells me is that this is a garbage poll that is especially inaccurate months before an election, let alone years before.

Polling months before an election is often inaccurate. That is because there are things that happen in the months between the election and the poll, known as "events," that can shift the sentiments of the electorate. That does not invalidate the poll's role as a measure of how the electorate is currently leaning.

[THG]

1. A poll is not a "prediction." It is a snapshot of the sentiments of the electorate, based on a representative subsample, at the time the poll is taken. If you do not understand that, I would recommend you get out of the polling subforums and stick to those more suited to your IQ, like US General Discussion.
2. Their poll in July was Biden 50-44. Their poll in November — the closest thing to a "prediction" — was 49-48.

So their predictions were

1) Wrong in November

2) Horribly wrong a few months out

So all this tells me is that this is a garbage poll that is especially inaccurate months before an election, let alone years before.

Polling months before an election is often inaccurate. That is because there are things that happen in the months between the election and the poll, known as "events," that can shift the sentiments of the electorate. That does not invalidate the poll's role as a measure of how the electorate is currently leaning.

I partly agree, however, I still highly doubt these polls and I still have Florida as likely R.

(For both the Senate and Governorship races!).

[THG]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

I wonder how Crist is able to get so many republicans to vote for him, maybe has has some special connection with them or something being a former republican you know.

[THG]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

I wonder how Crist is able to get so many republicans to vote for him, maybe has has some special connection with them or something being a former republican you know.

Why didn’t those former Republicans carry him to victory in 2010 or 2014? Split ticketing was more of a thing back then, and Crist hasn’t been a Republican in a decade.

This might be the most idiotic thing I’ve ever read on here.

[THG]

St Pete's also had Gillum leading 5 against DeSantis GOING INTO ELECTION DAY:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/280161-st-pete-polls-andrew-gillum-holds-5-point-lead-heading-into-election-day/


Anyone who thinks this poll is even remotely accurate  is not someone whose opinion I am taking seriously from this point onwards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis doesn't have 60% Approvals as the other poll showed 60/40

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

I wonder how Crist is able to get so many republicans to vote for him, maybe has has some special connection with them or something being a former republican you know.

2010 and 2014 were terrible years for. democrat turnout. It was a mircle he came as close as he did in 2014.

Why didn’t those former Republicans carry him to victory in 2010 or 2014? Split ticketing was more of a thing back then, and Crist hasn’t been a Republican in a decade.

This might be the most idiotic thing I’ve ever read on here.

[THG]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

I wonder how Crist is able to get so many republicans to vote for him, maybe has has some special connection with them or something being a former republican you know.

2010 and 2014 were terrible years for. democrat turnout. It was a mircle he came as close as he did in 2014.

Why didn’t those former Republicans carry him to victory in 2010 or 2014? Split ticketing was more of a thing back then, and Crist hasn’t been a Republican in a decade.

This might be the most idiotic thing I’ve ever read on here.

Crist siphoned off more Democratic support in 2010 than Republican support.

2010 or 2014 having horrible Dem turnout doesn't make your absurd theory any more valid, unless you fundamentally misunderstand how electoral politics works.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of D's win any wave insurance states we are gonna win the H and 53 Senate votes nulifies Sinema, Tester and Manchin on Filibuster reform

OH and NC and IA Sen are on shaky ground if Crist is leading in FL

[Biden his time]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

If you look closer, you will notice that it classifies regions by media market.

This is a map of Florida's media markets:

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, they went as follows:

Miami Media Market: D+17 (58% Biden, 41% Trump)
Palm Beach Media Market: D+4 (52% Biden, 48% Trump)
Fort Myers Media Market: R+25 (38% Biden, 63% Trump)
Tampa Bay Media Market: R+9 (45% Biden, 54% Trump)
Orlando Media Market: R+3 (48% Biden, 51% Trump)
Jacksonville Media Market: R+16 (41% Biden, 57% Trump)
Gainesville Media Market: D+9 (54% Biden, 45% Trump)
Tallahassee Media Market: D+5 (52% Biden, 47% Trump)
Panama City Media Market: R+39 (30% Biden, 69% Trump)
Pensacola Media Market: R+31 (34% Biden, 65% Trump)


This is how their final 2020 Presidential poll performed by media market:

Miami Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 13%
Palm Beach Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 1%
Fort Myers Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 8%
Tampa Bay Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 7%
Orlando Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 5%
Jacksonville Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 5%
Gainesville Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 21%
Tallahassee Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 4%
Panama City Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 19%
Pensacola Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 14%


Make of this how you will.

[THG]

This poll is even worse when accounting for by region.

It says it has DeSantis up by 2% in Tampa Bay, 51% in Palm Beach!, and tied in Orlando. Down big in Miami tho. Crist getting 20% of the Republican vote as well. This makes no senee. What a terrible poll.

If you look closer, you will notice that it classifies regions by media market.

This is a map of Florida's media markets:

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential election, they went as follows:

Miami Media Market: D+17 (58% Biden, 41% Trump)
Palm Beach Media Market: D+4 (52% Biden, 48% Trump)
Fort Myers Media Market: R+25 (38% Biden, 63% Trump)
Tampa Bay Media Market: R+9 (45% Biden, 54% Trump)
Orlando Media Market: R+3 (48% Biden, 51% Trump)
Jacksonville Media Market: R+16 (41% Biden, 57% Trump)
Gainesville Media Market: D+9 (54% Biden, 45% Trump)
Tallahassee Media Market: D+5 (52% Biden, 47% Trump)
Panama City Media Market: R+39 (30% Biden, 69% Trump)
Pensacola Media Market: R+31 (34% Biden, 65% Trump)


This is how their final 2020 Presidential poll performed by media market:

Miami Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 13%
Palm Beach Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 1%
Fort Myers Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 8%
Tampa Bay Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 7%
Orlando Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 5%
Jacksonville Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 5%
Gainesville Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 21%
Tallahassee Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 4%
Panama City Media Market: Underestimated the Democratic margin by 19%
Pensacola Media Market: Underestimated the Republican margin by 14%


Make of this how you will.

This actually makes a little bit more sense- however, those margins still generally HEAVILY underestimate Republicans, and I will not take a poll that had Gillum winning by 7 seriously.

[Skill and Chance]

This same poll last year:

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit.

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

Also, the actual result in Pinellas was Biden +0.2. 

[Chips]

Very interesting. Shows that a Democrat COULD win this race. Yes, the pollster has slightly underrated Republicans in the past but this still isn't great news for DeSantis as he's underwater again and even a close race against a guy who has been predicted by most to win by mid single digits or higher is not a great outlook. This is almost certainly due to COVID rising in the state again. If COVID continues at this pace I can imagine things will suddenly look ugly for DeSantis pretty soon.

[THG]

Very interesting. Shows that a Democrat COULD win this race. Yes, the pollster has slightly underrated Republicans in the past but this still isn't great news for DeSantis as he's underwater again and even a close race against a guy who has been predicted by most to win by mid single digits or higher is not a great outlook. This is almost certainly due to COVID rising in the state again. If COVID continues at this pace I can imagine things will suddenly look ugly for DeSantis pretty soon.

I think the surge has hurt DeSantis but if Trump won Florida by 3.5% during the peak of the pandemic, it shows that DeSantis has a floor of around 5 points.

Also, this poll underrates Republicans a lot- by around 5 points at minimum on AVERAGE. Which furthers the validity of my argument.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yep. They've got to satisfy the Dems that love their fantasy polls. There'll be plenty of them in the next year.

[KaiserDave]

Anyone who pays attention to this race is just looking for pain at this point

[THG]

Yep. They've got to satisfy the Dems that love their fantasy polls. There'll be plenty of them in the next year.

I've seen wish-casting polls saying Abbott is underwater in approvals in Texas (LOL), which is even more hysterical and delusional than this.

[TodayJunior]

Told you all this would catch up to him sooner than later.

[DrScholl]

I think I dislike DeSantis for the way that his over the top fans prop him up more than I do for his terrible policy. It's a bit over the top when you have someone making a thread attacking a pollster for showing a basically tied race.

That aside, DeSantis is way overrated and he was never going to win this race by the lopsided margin that his supporters believed.

[Pericles]

Lmao Florida polls.

[sting in the rafters]

This far out all this means is both candidates are at base support, far too many undecideds. Still Lean R with the advantage they have on the ground.

[Real Texan Politics]

Well well, Crist is winning, there can be split voting in OH, FL so

Didn't you say there were 500 days until the election and a lot can change? I'm sure this'll change too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the poll lied that had him up 60/40 and Rubio too